Richard M. Anderson

Bio and Research:

I develop and use decision models and systems modeling approaches to address problems in environmental and particularly watershed management. Complex environmental decisions often involve multiple stakeholders, conflicting objectives, important risks, and long-lasting impacts. They typically require value judgments and lack adequate data. I address these problems using tools of decision analysis, systems modeling, applied statistics, and optimization. My systems modeling interests include linking changes in watershed land use to hydrologic regime to biotic integrity. For example, in recent work in the Lake Erie, USA basin I (1) used a Bayesian approach to explore the use of value judgments of natural resource managers in choosing lake fishery management policies; (2) used regionalization analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in applying a systems model to link forest cover to hydrologic regime to tributary productivity to guide habitat restoration decisions; and (3) evaluated alternative phosphorus management strategies. My ongoing research goal is to develop rigorous and useful applications of decision and systems analysis to real watershed management problems.

Current Project: Integrating values and science to make decisions about restoring oysters in North Carolina, USA

Eastern oyster populations in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S. have declined dramatically, with landings in the Chesapeake Bay and estuaries of eastern North Carolina falling to 1-2% of their historical peaks a century ago. A major factor has been the physical destruction of oyster reef habitat associated with mechanical fishing gear. It is currently unclear how resource extraction (e.g., the shellfish fishery) should be balanced with restoration of ecological function (e.g., to provide aquatic habitat, water column filtration, and other ecosystem services by inact reefs) within oyster reef communities in the estuaries of North Carolina. I am working with estuarine ecologists to build an influence diagram (Bayesian network) model to bring together stakeholder values and ecosystem science to provide insight into decision making about oyster and oyster reef management.

Talented and motivated PhD students are being sought who are interested in environmental decision analysis. Approaches include stakeholder group facilitation, multiattribute utility analysis, Bayesian statistics, influence diagrams, and mathematical modeling in general. Please contact Richard Anderson by phone or email.