| Publications [#267253] of Alexander Pfaff
Articles
- Kerr, S; Liu, S; Pfaff, A; Hughes, F, Carbon Dynamics and Land-use Choices: Building a Regional-scale Multidisciplinary Model
(September, 2003)
(last updated on 2024/04/24)
Abstract: Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential
contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of
land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this
paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses
these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C
pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The
model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way
to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It
combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and
other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to
ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so
that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The
integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage
for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines,
reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and
economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part
of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be
used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy
and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.
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