Publications [#266345] of Philip J. Cook

Chapters in Books

1. Bushway, S; Cook, PJ; Phillips, M, The net effect of the business cycle on crime and violence, in Economics and youth violence: Crime, disadvantage, and community, edited by Rosenfeld, R; Edberg, M; Fang, X; Florence, CS (2013), pp. 23-52, New York University Press
   (last updated on 2024/04/19)

   Abstract:
   The paper analyzes the causal effects of the business cycle on crime. Among the main conclusions are that robbery and burglary are countercyclical, motor vehicle theft is pro-cyclical, and criminal homicide is acyclical. We also analyze suicide patterns, finding that while suicide rates overall are countercyclical, suicide rates by younger teens are actually procyclical. The paper begins with a discussion of causal mechanisms linking economic conditions to crime and violence, both overall and for youths. We investigate the effect of short-term fluctuations in economic activity on crime and violence (and on arrest rates) using the quasi-experimental analysis of the last 13 business cycles (beginning in 1933). We then develop and implement a second approach, a regression analysis on detrended data, and report the results. The regression analysis generally confirms the qualitative results from the quasi-experimental approach, and provides estimates of magnitudes.