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Full List of PPARC NIA Grants
Grant Name: Oldest-Old Mortality - Demographic Models and Analysis: Administrative Core
Grant Number: P01 AG008761
Funding Agency: National Institute on Aging (NIA)
PI: James W. Vaupel
Additional Researchers: Kaare Christensen
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Approximate Total: $8,500,000
Description: James W. Vaupel, the Program Director, first received funding from the
National Institute on Aging for this P01 in 1990. The Program, now in
its 17th year, has an Administrative Core and 6 active projects:
projects 1,2,3,5,6,and 7. One of the projects that had been part of the
P01 - known as Project 8, became a separate NIA Research Project (R01)
in 2004. That project, Demographic Analysis of Healthy Longevity in
China, is now R01 AG023627 (no longer administered by PPARC). Zeng Yi is the PI and James Vaupel is one
of the project consultants.
The research proposed in this P01 is
driven by the concepts and methods of demography. All six projects
focus on research on exceptional longevity. Longevity has proven to be
remarkably plastic: environmental and genetic alterations can produce
large increases in longevity. Our overarching goal is explore the
nature of and limits to this plasticity. We address, among others, the
following questions: *Are death rates declining at the highest ages
and, if so, is the pace of decline accelerating or decelerating? *How
much will best-practice life expectancy (in the record-holding
population) increase over the course of the 21st century? *How long is
life expectancy for the group of individuals who have the optimal
characteristics (under the health conditions and levels of knowledge
that currently prevail)? *What are the characteristics that enable a
person to survive from his or her early 90s to age 100? *How much can
dietary manipulation extend the life expectancy of Mexflies? *How much
can the maximum observed lifespans of nematode worms be increased by
combinations of genes and by environmental manipulations? *Does
mortality tend to decline as a plant grows (with age), leading to
"negative senescence" and extraordinary longevity for plants that
manage to become large?
The Administrative Core is the nexus of
coordination among the projects in P01 AG08761. This includes the
management of personnel, budgets, preparation of IRB human subject
protocols (both medical and non-medical protocols), organization of
meetings and workshops, and other activities that are necessary for the
sharing of methodological and theoretical developments and empirical
findings.
(Note: The dollar amount includes the total of the amount awarded for the Admin. Core plus the amounts awarded for all projects of the P01 combined.)
CRISP Thesaurus Terms: aging,
developmental genetics, gene environment interaction, human mortality,
longevity, mathematics, statistics /biometry clinical research .
Grant Name: Oldest Old Mortality - Demographic Models and Analysis: Project 1 - Exceptional Human Longevity in International Context
Grant Number: P01 AG008761 0001
Funding Agency: NIA
PI: James W. Vaupel
Additional Researchers: Jutta Gampe and Roland Rau
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Description: Project 1: Exceptional Human Longevity in International Context
The proposed research has two broad objectives. The first is to update the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality (Note: A picture of Dr. V. Kannisto appears in the upper left-hand corner of this page.) and to use the information to write a book, tentatively entitled "The Advance of Longevity". The second broad objective is to compile data on population longevity, i.e., on life expectancy for males and females in various countries and regions of countries, and then to use these data to analyze the rise in human life expectancy since 1840 and especially since 1950 and to forecast life expectancy until 2100. This research will also be summarized in a book, tentatively entitled "Best-Practice Life Expectancy: Demographic Analyses". The two Databases will be of great value to numerous researchers for various studies beyond those proposed here: we will freely share the data via convenient web sites. Our stress is on research on exceptional longevity. We emphasize the compilation of data on long-livers and on populations with extraordinary life expectancies. We focus on analyzing these data to: determine if death rates are declining at the highest ages, explore whether the age-trajectory of the force of mortality levels off or even declines after age 110, analyze the gaps between record life expectancy and life expectancies in various long-lived populations, and forecast the rise in record life expectancy. These four analytic thrusts are on the cutting edge on research on the demography of aging. The findings will be of profound importance in providing a knowledge base for public discussions about the policy challenges of population aging.
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
aging, geographic site, human mortality, longevity
book, data collection methodology /evaluation, developmental genetics, gender difference, income, mathematical model, monograph, racial /ethnic difference, tobacco
human data, information system, statistics /biometry
(Note: The funding for this project, which is part of the P01 grant, is included in the Administrative Core overall total.).
Grant Name: Oldest Old Mortality - Demographic Models and Analysis: Project 2 - Determinants of Extreme Survival in Humans
Grant Number: P01 AG008761 0002
Funding Agency: NIA
PI: James W. Vaupel and Kaare Christensen
Additional Researchers: Lise Bathum and Eleanor Feingold and Matthew K McGue and Michael B. Miller
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Description: Project 2: Determinants of Extreme Survival in Humans
The reason why some humans live to extreme ages - some even in relatively good health - is largely unknown. This research project is designed to extend the "Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins" (LSADT), to continue the follow-up of the Danish 1905-Cohort until its members turn 100, and to establish a cohort of 1,000 pairs of nonagenarian sisters. LSADT already comprises five in-person assessments among 70+ year old Danish twins and more than 4,500 twins have completed the intake assessment. We have assessed the Danish 1905-Cohort in 1998 and 2000 and a third wave will follow in 2003. Here we propose a final assessment in 2005 of the LSADT participants and the Danish 1905-Cohort. The assessment will closely follow previous assessments and include measures of physical, cognitive, health, and psychological functioning. An extra wave of LSADT will give us substantially more statistical power to disentangle the genetic and environmental components of healthy aging into higher ages and together with the Danish 1905-Cohort Study it will provide us with excellent power to perform association studies, survival analyses, and rate-of-change studies into extreme ages. The Danish 1905-Cohort Study will provide the first centenarian study in which both environmental and genetic information is available from a non-centenarian control group from the same birth cohort. To enhance the possibility of identifying new genetic factors of importance for healthy aging at extreme ages we propose a genome-wide linkage study using a cohort of 1,000 nonagenarian sisters ascertained using the unique Danish population registers. Denmark provides an ideal setting for such studies because of the existence of nationwide health and death registers covering practically all Danish citizens.
(Note: The funding for this project, which is part of the P01 grant, is included in the Administrative Core overall total.)
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
European, aging, human mortality, longevity
cognition, coping, depression, developmental genetics, gender difference, gene environment interaction, genetic polymorphism, genome, lifestyle, linkage mapping, longitudinal human study, mathematics, quality of life, social psychology
behavior test, genotype, human subject, information system, interview, sample collection, statistics /biometry
.
Grant Name: Oldest Old Mortality - Demographic Models and Analysis: Project 3 - Exceptional Longevity in Tephritid Fruit Flies
Grant Number: P01 AG008761 0003
Funding Agency: NIA
PI: James R. Carey and Lawrence G. Harshman and Hans-Georg Mueller and Jane-Ling Wang
Additional Researchers: Byron I Katsoyannos and Pablo Liedo and Nikolaos T Papadopoulos
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Description: Project 3: Determinants of Exceptional Longevity in Tephritid Fruit Flies -- This project will examine the determinants of exceptional longevity using both the medfly and the Mexican fruit fly (Mexfly) in evolutionary, nutritional and behavioral contexts. The addition of the Mexfly to the biodemography experimental system is necessary because of the recent decision by Mexico and the U.S. to discontinue rearing adult medflies at the Tapachula laboratory where all previous research has been conducted. The project will involve seven scientists including Project Leader James Carey, co-PLs Lawrence Harshman (Nebraska), Hans Mtiller (UC Davis), Jane-Ling Wang (UC Davis) and collaborators Drs. Pablo Liedo (Mexico), Byron Katsoyannos (Greece) and Nikos Papadopoulos (Greece).
The project has four specific aims. Aim 1 is framed around the concept of 'evolutionary biodemography' where we propose to develop sets of eco-gerontological rules that relate evolved life span to the selection environment. We will use medfly 'races' collected from different regions of the world to test the hypothesis that natural selection favors reduced longevity in tropical environments and exceptional longevity in desert and/or Mediterranean climates. Aim 2 involves gathering baseline biodemographic and behavioral data on the Mexican fruit fly (Mexfly)--a species that is exceptionally long-lived. Aim 3 will involve questions concerned with the biodemography of dietary manipulation where we will use the Mexfly model system for gathering data in one of the largest and most comprehensive biodemographic studies ever conducted on the effects of nutrition on mortality, longevity and female reproduction. Aim 4 is concerned with behavioral biodemography--the study of the age-specific patterns of behaviors that both impact and, in turn, are impacted by aging. This aim will lay the groundwork for the development of model systems concerned with morbidity dynamics--an extremely important but poorly understood aspect of aging research on the biology and demography of individuals who have attained exceptional ages.
(Note: The funding for this project, which is part of the P01 grant, is included in the Administrative Core overall total.)
CRISP Thesaurus Terms: aging, biological model, gene environment interaction, longevity, model design /development climate, developmental genetics, female reproductive system, human mortality, method development, natural selection, nutrient intake activity Drosophilidae, behavior test, statistics /biometry
.
Grant Name: Oldest Old Mortality - Demographic Models and Analysis: Project 5 - Dynamics of Aging and Extreme Longevity
Grant Number: P01 AG008761 0005
Funding Agency: NIA
PI: Anatoli Yashin
Additional Researchers: Konstantin G. Arbeev
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Description: Project 5: Dynamics of Aging and Extreme Longevity
The broad long-term objectives of this project are to identify the dynamic mechanisms regulating relationships between indices of physiological and biological aging, health status and life span in humans and animals, and to use this knowledge in evaluation of the determinants of healthy life span and extreme longevity. In these analyses, we will investigate critical information about the regularities of the aging process accumulated in epidemiological, demographic, and experimental studies of aging and life span in different species. Four specific aims will be addressed: 1) Evaluate the role of age trajectories of physiological indices and other factors in the life span of long-lived individuals of both sexes using longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study and Honolulu Heart Study, determining how those age trajectories are associated with extreme longevity; 2) Evaluate the role of age trajectories of health-related indices and other factors in the life span of long-lived individuals of both sexes using data from National Long Term Care Survey, Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins, Determinants of Healthy Longevity in China, Danish Study of 1905 birth cohort, Sardinia Longevity Study, identifying age trajectories of health related and other indices associated with extreme longevity; 3) Evaluate the role of genes and the environment in extreme longevity of the nematode worm C. elegans, investigating mechanisms of individual adaptation to changing environmental conditions in forming age patterns of mortality at extreme ages, and identifying combinations of genetic and environmental factors leading to extreme longevity; 4) Evaluate the hidden capacity of a fruit fly's organism to extend its longevity by changing regimes of nutrition and reproduction, identifying combinations of dietary conditions and age pattern of reproduction leading to extreme longevity. The work on all four aims will involve development of new mathematical and computer models and statistical methods for the analyses of data collected in human and animal studies of aging and longevity.
(Note: The funding for this project, which is part of the P01 grant, is included in the Administrative Core overall total.)
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
aging, biological model, longevity, model design /development
computer system design /evaluation, developmental genetics, environmental adaptation, gender difference, gene environment interaction, human mortality, longitudinal human study, mathematics, nutrient intake activity, reproduction
Caenorhabditis elegans, human data, statistics /biometry
.
Grant Name: Oldest Old Mortalty- Demographic Models and Analysis: Project 6 - Extreme Longevity in Nematodes: Genes & Environments)
Grant Number: P01 AG008761 0006
Funding Agency: NIA
PI: Thomas E. Johnson
Additional Researchers: Christopher D. Link and Shane Rea and Duqing (DQ) Wu
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Description: Project 6: Extreme Longevity in Nematodes: Genes & Environments
This project will examine mortality and exceptional survival in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. Our overarching hypothesis is that longevity is extremely plastic. Corollaries of this hypothesis are that both genetic and environmental factors can work independently in specifying mortality. Moreover, mortality is controlled segmentally: reduced mortality at one age does not automatically cause similar changes in mortality at all ages. We have some evidence in favor of our main hypothesis and its corollaries but we are not at all sure whether they generally hold, especially as longevity increases. Here we plan a series of experiments to test predictions of these hypotheses. Because of our interest in age-specific mortality and in extreme longevity, all will ultimately analyze populations of 100,000 or more nematodes in several ways. We intend also to build upon extremely exciting results that allow us to predict (on the second day of adult life) those worms destined to live longest in a population of genetically identical individuals. We actually have developed the capability of physically separating out a sub-cohort of long-lived individuals (all worms in the populations are genetically identical), using the COPAS "worm sorter", into a distinct population for subsequent analyses. These studies will reveal the dynamics of hidden heterogeneity of frailty.
We will closely examine "late-life" reproductive capabilities in C. elegans with a goal of ascertaining whether "older" worms can reproduce under certain conditions or in certain genetic mutants. This capability also will allow direct assessment of possible artifacts resulting from the effects of induced sterility on subsequent mortality, observed in numerous studies of longevity mutants in C. elegans. We will ascertain the shape of the mortality curves throughout life, focusing on extreme longevity.
We will analyze new longevity mutations and combinations of mutations that can quadruple life expectancy and maximum life span. We will study the effect of environmental determinants of extended longevity, such as caloric restriction, hormesis, and drug supplementation in large cohorts of the nematode. We will develop physiological and molecular predictors of extreme longevity.
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
aging, animal mortality, biological model, gene environment interaction, longevity, model design /development
developmental genetics, environmental stressor, human mortality, mathematics, nutrient intake activity, reproduction
Caenorhabditis elegans, mutant, statistics /biometry
(Note: The funding for this project which is part of a P01 grant is included in the Administrative Core overall budget for the grant.).
Grant Name: Oldest Old Mortality - Demographic Models and Analysis: Project 7 - Determinants of Extreme Longevity in a Plant Species
Grant Number: P01 AG008761 0007
Funding Agency: NIA
PI: Deborah A. Roach
Additional Researchers: Jutta Gampe and Frank Shaw
Effective Dates: 2004/05-2009/04
Description: Project 7: Determinants of Extreme Longevity in a Plant Species
Senescence is defined demographically as an increase in mortality after reproductive maturity. Our current understanding of mortality patterns may be limited by the fact that most studies have been made with short-lived model organisms under laboratory conditions.
This project uses a new model system, with a relatively long lifespan and unique trajectories of growth and reproduction with age. At the foundation of this project is a population of 30,000 individuals of Plantago lanceolata, a perennial plant species. Results from an earlier study suggest that continued growth after maturity might allow this species to minimize, or even escape, the aging process. This preliminary project showed that there are many determinants of mortality in this species including extrinsic environmental factors, spatial location, genetics, reproduction, cohort history, and most importantly size of an individual. This new project will expand this analysis to another population and to later years. It will test whether the importance of size, and the minimal importance of age, will continue to the latest ages. Data will be collected to test some of the assumptions in our covariate regression model that we have written to explore age-specific mortality in this species. We also have an established population of P. lanceolata that has been growing for over five years under the controlled conditions of the greenhouse. Few individuals, in the natural environment, live to this late age but under these protected conditions, the majority of the population has survived and is beginning to show an increase in mortality. This protected population offers a unique opportunity to study the mortality dynamics of a species at extremely late ages and it will test the hypothesis that patterns of senescence are only apparent at ages that are much later than individuals would survive in their natural environment.
(Note: The funding for this project, which is part of the P01 grant, is included in the Administrative Core overall total.)
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
aging, biological model, longevity, model design /development, plant
developmental genetics, gene environment interaction, human mortality, mathematical model, reproduction
statistics /biometry
.
Grant Name: Demographic Analysis of Sardinian Longevity
Grant Number: R01 AG020549
Funding Agency: NIA (funded for 3 years with a 2 year extension to 8/31/2007)
PI: James W. Vaupel and Luca Deiana and Graziella Caselli
Additional Researchers: Ciriaco Carru and Antonio Corda and Gianni Pes and Jutta Gampe and Giovannella Baggio and Domenica Rasulo and Rosa Maria Lipsi
Effective Dates: 2002/09-2007/08
Approximate Total: $1,600,000
Description: Research is proposed to document and verify a remarkable pattern of low mortality among Sardinian males after age 80 and to explore possible determinants. The proposed research builds on and extends the outstanding AKEA study of Sardinian centenarians. ("Akea" is a Sardinian expression that people say when wishing each other long life. It means - health and life for 100 years!) This study - now termed AKEA I - reported an unexpectedly low female/male ratio among centenarians (about 2/1) and the presence of extremely old males (105+ and 110+) on Sardinia. Demographers were skeptical. To determine the truth, the demographer Michel Poulain was sent to Sardinia to validate the AKEA data. His careful study suggests that the Sardinian data are reliable. That is, as a result of the AKEA research and the subsequent validation by Poulain, the remarkable survival of Sardinian males now appears to be a fact rather than an artifact of bad data. Hence, an international team of demographers and biologists has prepared this application.
The proposed research has five specific aims. First, we plan to use detailed vital statistics data for Sardinia and the rest of Italy to determine if there is a special pattern of mortality on Sardinia. Second, as a follow-up of the AKEA study, we plan a major geriatric survey to identify, interview, physically examine, and take blood samples from 800 elderly individuals. (This new survey is being referred to as AKEA II.)Third, we propose meticulous examination of detailed original records to validate alleged long-livers and to compile information about early-life events. Fourth, we intend to analyze DNA from these subjects to determine the frequency of various polymorphisms and haplogroups. Fifth, we aim to apply some specific, advanced methods of demographic and statistical analysis to determine genetic, early-life, and current factors affecting longevity. The data collected will be shared with project and other researchers to undertake many other analyses.
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
centenarian human (100+), geriatric medicine, human population study, longevity
early experience, gender difference, gene environment interaction, genetic polymorphism, genetic susceptibility, homozygote, human mortality, mitochondrial DNA, sex chromosome
Italy, blood test, clinical research, human old age (65+), human subject, interview, nucleic acid quantitation /detection.
Grant Name: Demographic Analysis of Healthy Longevity in China
Grant Number: R01 AG023627 (no longer managed by PPARC)
Funding Agency: NIA (5-year R01 grant - spin-off of the former Project 4 in P01 AG008761)
PI: Zeng Yi
Additional Researchers: James W. Vaupel and Danan Gu
Effective Dates: 2004/09-2009/08
Description: NOTE - THIS GRANT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PPARC PORTFOLIO AND IS SUPPORTED (from July 1, 2006) BY THE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF AGING AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT at the Duke University Medical Center. See: http://www.geri.duke.edu/china_study/index.htm. What follows is a description of the research project:
We propose to continue and strengthen the existing Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) study carried out in 1998, 2000, and 2002 as project 4 of NIA grant P01 AG008761 (a Program Project Grant).
We plan to gather more extensive questionnaire data through conducting two more follow-up waves in 2005 and 2008 with about 7,450, 7,500, and 7,130 interviews with centenarians, non-agenarians, and octogenarians, respectively. Relatively comprehensive data on mortality and health status before dying for the 10,382 oldest-old interviewees aged 80-110 who will have died between 2002 and 2008 waves will be collected through interviewing a close family member of the deceased elders. In the 2005 and 2008 waves, we will also conduct follow-up interviews with about 1,000 younger elders aged 65-79 and about 1,000 elderly interviewees' adult children aged 35-71. As was done in 1998, 2000, and 2002, this largest longitudinal survey study on oldest-old with sub-samples of younger elderly and adult children will be conducted in randomly selected half of the counties/cities of 22 provinces; the population in those provinces constitutes about 85% of the total population of China. This application seeks NIA funds to support the main sample of the oldest-old aged 80-110; the sub-sample of the younger elders and adult children will be covered by Chinese sources.
Using conventional and advanced demographic/statistical methods, we plan to analyze the CLHLS data with substantially increased statistical power to be achieved from these two additional follow-up waves in 2005 and 2008. We aim to gain a better understanding of patterns, trends of change in disability, risk factors and determinants of healthy survival, disability, mortality, and extent of suffering before dying at old ages, especially among the oldest-old. We plan to continue to archive the CLHLS data sets and make them user friendly and widely available to scientists outside and inside of China. As in 1997-2004, this project will continue to be part of the NIA-supported research network on healthy longevity coordinated by James W. Vaupel and Cindy Owens at Duke University.
CRISP Thesaurus Terms:
China, human mortality, human population study, longevity
aging, long term survivor, longitudinal human study, mathematical model, person with disability, quality of life, statistics /biometry
clinical research, data collection, human subject, interview, questionnaire.
Grant Name: Biodemography of Disease and Death in Moscow
Grant Number: R01 AG026786
Funding Agency: NIA (funded for 5 years)
PI: James W. Vaupel and Maria Shkolnikova and Svetlana A. Shalnova
Additional Researchers: Alexander Deev and Noreen Goldman and Francesco Lagona and Heiner Maier and Vladimir Shkolnikov and Olga V. Vikhireva and Maxine Weinstein
Effective Dates: 2006/09-2011/08
Approximate Total: $1,750,000
Description: Biodemography of Disease and Death in Moscow
The purpose of the study is to investigate whether 24-hour Holter monitoring of the heart rate can feasibly be added to biodemographic surveys and whether the Holter information contributes to better measurement of physiological toll and understanding of the causal mechanisms that link individual characteristics and socio-economic conditions with health and survival. The study will provide a database that can be used to shed light on the impact of cumulated stress on the poor health and high mortality of middle-aged and elderly Russians. The aims of the study are: to conduct a demographic and health survey of 2000 men and women in Moscow of age 55+ that includes 24-hour Holter monitoring, to study all data obtained using statistical methods and regression analysis with a focus to determine the incremental value of the Holter data, to conduct follow-up interviews 2.5 years after the first interview/examination, to study the longitudinal data and prepare a dataset for further study by qualified researchers.
Research studies have identified socio-psychological circumstances contributing to stress buildup and correlations between self-perceived stress and health outcomes. Also studies show that repetitive stress reactions can lead to the suppression of the body’s adaptability. Stress is recognized as the main risk factor in multi-system damage. In trying to measure cumulated stress, scientists have used allostatic load markers to score multi-system physiological toll as well as conventional measures to score factors such as smoking, grip strength, lung capacity, and blood pressure. While these scores are valuable, a serious limitation can be seen in their static (single point in time) character. Point measurements of risk factors do not provide any information about changes due to physiological cycles, diurnal rhythms, and other fluctuations. This research study will try a new method to measure cumulated stress. The method will combine existing allostatic load biomarkers and other established biomarkers with biomarkers based on data from 24-hour Holter monitoring. By collecting a wide range of individual-level biodemographic data and biomarkers from a sample of the older population in Moscow, this study will provide unique data to the scientific community and new insights into the causes of premature disease and death. This study is linked to three types of prior empirical research: studies seeking the best ways to measure physiological toll and the biological mechanisms behind the differences in mortality and health, studies of inter-group and inter-country health differences, and clinical studies of heart rate and its connections with disease and death.
A small-scale pilot project, the Moscow Pilot Study, (funded by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany) was undertaken in 2002-03. The results demonstrated the practical applicability of Holter monitoring and highlighted the usefulness and value of the Holter variables when compared to conventional risk factors and the existing allostatic load score for the prediction of health outcomes. The proposed research and protocol builds upon the pilot project.
Holter monitoring has excellent potential for adding explanatory power to existing approaches and measures, and for detecting new aspects of physiological toll. It will provide a new toolkit for non-invasive measurement of biomarker trajectories in real-life conditions. Results of the study will potentially facilitate empirical research on health protection and the prevention of premature morbidity and mortality..
Grant Name: Mortality Surface Analysis
Grant Number: R37 AG018444
Funding Agency: NIA (funded for 5 years)
PI: James W. Vaupel
Additional Researchers: Magdalena M Muszynska
Effective Dates: 2004/06-2009/06
Approximate Total: $1,400,000
Description: In the original grant on Mortality Surfaces (R01 AG18444) the researchers made the following proposal.
"We propose to compile and make available data on mortality surfaces over age and time for the United States, for regional and black and white sub-populations of the United States, for East and West Germany and for 15 other countries. Furthermore, we will develop and test innovative demographic methods for modeling mortality surfaces. These data and methods will be useful to many researchers interested in analyzing questions concerning mortality dynamics and comparisons. We will illustrate this by using the data and methods to shed light on two demographic puzzles, one concerning the United States and the other concerning Germany. Although death rates in the U.S. are high before age 65, after this age and especially after age 80 people in the United States survive longer than people in Western Europe and Japan. Many factors may contribute to the U.S. advantage; we propose to study three. In particular, we will use mortality-surface data and methods to analyze the hypothesis that healthy immigrants contribute to the U.S. mortality advantage. We will test whether high death rates at younger ages may lower death rates at older ages. Finally and perhaps most importantly, we will analyze the hypothesis that the Medicare system lowers U.S. mortality at older ages.
The German puzzle pertains to the effects of reunification in 1990. Death rates in East Germany fell so rapidly after 1990 that much of the West German mortality advantage was eliminated. Improvements were particularly dramatic at oldest-old ages. The narrowing of the mortality gap between East and West Germany began, however, several years before reunification. Hence it is not clear how much the effects of reunification vs. the effects of other factors account for the change: we will use mortality-surface data and methods to analyze this question."
As the R01 grant was extended with a MERIT award (an R37), there are several new goals during the current 5-year period- These are to:
(1) devise methods to smooth the binomial noise that roughens mortality surfaces, (2) devise methods to smooth short-term fluctuations on mortality surfaces (3) estimate "best-practice" surfaces of probabilities of death over age and time, (4) develop user-friendly software to depict mortality surfaces, (5) apply the methods and results of Aims 1-4 to study the surface of U.S. mortality, both by comparing it with surfaces for other countries and by analyzing U.S. regions and subpopulations, and (6) write and publish a monograph, tentatively entitled Surfaces of Mortality: Demographic Analyses of Probabilities of Death over Age and Time by Sex and Population, that will describe, document, illustrate and summarize the research proposed in Aims 1-5, as well as the research carried out in R01 AG18444 and other earlier research..
Grant Name: Exceptional Survival in Danish and Italian Families
Grant Number: U01 AG023712
Funding Agency: NIA (funded for 5 years)
PI: James W. Vaupel
Additional Researchers: Kaare Christensen and Anatoli Yashin and Jutta Gampe
Effective Dates: 2004/09-2009/05
Approximate Total: $2,600,000
Description: (This project description is based on
text as submitted in the original grant but updated to
reflect the scope and/or findings of the funded
research project.)
This 5-year project is part of
the: Long Life Family Study. In particular, we
plan to gather questionnaire and physiological
data on 300 Danish families in which there are
pairs of living nonagenarian and centenarian sibs
and living brothers, sisters, and spouses and
children. We are expecting that each family will
give the research team approximately seven family
members. The spouses will be in a control group of
family members. We will gather information on the
lifespans of the sibs' parents and validate all
ages by examining birth certificates and, when
appropriate, marriage certificates and death
certificates. In this research project, we will
collaborate with other Exceptional Survival in Families (ESF) Study Centers at (see
http://www.biostat.wustl.edu/llfs/ for full
information and project descriptions): University
of Pittsburgh, Washington University, Boston
University, Columbia University, and the NIA to
develop appropriate questionnaires and survey
procedures. Our plan is to develop powerful,
appropriate models and methods of
statistical/demographic analysis to study the data
in collaboration with other ESF Study Centers.
Notes: 1) This grant was funded only for Danish
Families. Italian
families are not included.
2) The grant application was submitted in response
to a NIA solicitation
having the title, “The NIA Multicenter Study of
Exceptional Survival in
Families,” and solicitation number, AG-03-004.
CRISP Thesaurus Terms: centenarian human (100+),
family, human population study, human very old age
(85+), longevity cooperative study, human
mortality, long term survivor, parent, physiology,
sibling, Scandinavian country, blood chemistry,
clinical research, death certificate, human
subject, questionnaire.