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Grant Name: Mortality Surface Analysis
Grant Number: R37 AG018444
Funding Agency: NIA (funded for 5 years)
PIs: James W. Vaupel
Investigators/Advisors: Magdalena M Muszynska
Effective Dates: 2004/06-2009/06
Approximate Amount/Year: $300,000
Approximate Total: $1,400,000
Description: In the original grant on Mortality Surfaces (R01 AG18444) the researchers made the following proposal.
"We propose to compile and make available data on mortality surfaces over age and time for the United States, for regional and black and white sub-populations of the United States, for East and West Germany and for 15 other countries. Furthermore, we will develop and test innovative demographic methods for modeling mortality surfaces. These data and methods will be useful to many researchers interested in analyzing questions concerning mortality dynamics and comparisons. We will illustrate this by using the data and methods to shed light on two demographic puzzles, one concerning the United States and the other concerning Germany. Although death rates in the U.S. are high before age 65, after this age and especially after age 80 people in the United States survive longer than people in Western Europe and Japan. Many factors may contribute to the U.S. advantage; we propose to study three. In particular, we will use mortality-surface data and methods to analyze the hypothesis that healthy immigrants contribute to the U.S. mortality advantage. We will test whether high death rates at younger ages may lower death rates at older ages. Finally and perhaps most importantly, we will analyze the hypothesis that the Medicare system lowers U.S. mortality at older ages.
The German puzzle pertains to the effects of reunification in 1990. Death rates in East Germany fell so rapidly after 1990 that much of the West German mortality advantage was eliminated. Improvements were particularly dramatic at oldest-old ages. The narrowing of the mortality gap between East and West Germany began, however, several years before reunification. Hence it is not clear how much the effects of reunification vs. the effects of other factors account for the change: we will use mortality-surface data and methods to analyze this question."
As the R01 grant was extended with a MERIT award (an R37), there are several new goals during the current 5-year period- These are to:
(1) devise methods to smooth the binomial noise that roughens mortality surfaces, (2) devise methods to smooth short-term fluctuations on mortality surfaces (3) estimate "best-practice" surfaces of probabilities of death over age and time, (4) develop user-friendly software to depict mortality surfaces, (5) apply the methods and results of Aims 1-4 to study the surface of U.S. mortality, both by comparing it with surfaces for other countries and by analyzing U.S. regions and subpopulations, and (6) write and publish a monograph, tentatively entitled Surfaces of Mortality: Demographic Analyses of Probabilities of Death over Age and Time by Sex and Population, that will describe, document, illustrate and summarize the research proposed in Aims 1-5, as well as the research carried out in R01 AG18444 and other earlier research..