Publications [#256455] of Kenneth C. Land

Book Chapters

1. Land, KC, Forecasting, in International Encyclopedia of Behavioral and Social Sciences, edited by Wright, JD (2015), pp. 316-323, Elsevier, ISBN 9780080970868 [doi]
   (last updated on 2024/04/25)

   Abstract:
   Forecasting comprises of the formation of expectations about future states or processes of social entities, such as populations or subpopulations thereof, and associated entities, such as economies and political and social institutions. This article commences by describing and giving examples of empirical applications of four methods of forecasting that have been developed, and are widely used, in the social sciences: leading indicators, quantitative trend analysis, formal forecasting models, and qualitative (theoretical"institutional"scenario) analysis and forecasts. This is followed by a section on limitations of forecasting. All social science forecasts are subject to deterioration of their accuracy with increasing temporal distance from the initiation point of the forecasts. This is due to the complexity of social systems to which forecasting models and the data from which they are estimated are only an approximation, the evolving nature of such systems, and the fact that the forecasts sometimes are just elements in the social system to which some actors respond, thus changing their behavior. It is concluded that forecasts should incorporate prediction intervals that grow with increases in the forecast horizon and the forecasts should be updated frequently.