CNCS Center for Nonlinear and Complex Systems
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Publications of Katharina V. Koelle    :chronological  alphabetical  combined  bibtex listing:

Papers Published

  1. Ben-Shachar, R; Koelle, K, Minimal within-host dengue models highlight the specific roles of the immune response in primary and secondary dengue infections, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 12 no. 103 (December, 2014), pp. 20140886-20140886, ISSN 1742-5689 [repository], [doi]
  2. Koelle, K; Rasmussen, DA, Influenza: Prediction is worth a shot, Nature, vol. 507 no. 7490 (February, 2014), pp. 47-48, ISSN 0028-0836 [doi]
  3. Rasmussen, DA; Boni, MF; Koelle, K, Reconciling Phylodynamics with Epidemiology: The Case of Dengue Virus in Southern Vietnam, Molecular Biology and Evolution, vol. 31 no. 2 (February, 2014), pp. 258-271, ISSN 0737-4038 [repository], [doi]
  4. Wu, S; Koelle, K; Rodrigo, A, Coalescent entanglement and the conditional dependence of the times to common ancestry of mutually exclusive pairs of individuals., Journal of Heredity, vol. 104 no. 1 (January, 2013), pp. 86-91 [23077234], [doi]  [abs]
  5. Scholle, S.O., Ypma, R., Lloyd, A.L., Koelle, K., Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamicssubstitution rates, The American Naturalist, vol. 182 no. 4 (2013), pp. 494-513 [doi]
  6. Scholle, SO; Ypma, RJF; Lloyd, AL; Koelle, K, Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamics, American Naturalist, vol. 182 no. 4 (2013), pp. 494-513, ISSN 0003-0147 [doi]  [abs]
  7. Luo, S; Reed, M; Mattingly, JC; Koelle, K, The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape., Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 9 no. 75 (2012), pp. 2603-2613 [22572027], [doi]  [abs]
  8. Koelle, WHO-VMIDVMGIK, Assessing the potential of a candidate dengue vaccine with mathematical modeling, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 6 no. 3 (2012), pp. e1450 [repository], [doi]
  9. Luo, S; Koelle, K, Navigating the devious course of evolution: the importance of mechanistic models for identifying eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature, The American Naturalist, vol. 181 no. S58-S75 (2012) [repository]
  10. Arinaminpathy, N; Ratmann, O; Koelle, K; Epstein, SL; Price, GE; Viboud, C; Miller, MA; Grenfell, BT, Impact of cross-protective vaccines on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, vol. 109 no. 8 (2012), pp. 3173-3177, ISSN 0027-8424 [doi]  [abs]
  11. Koelle, K; Rasmussen, DA, Rates of coalescence for common epidemiological models at equilibrium, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 9 no. 70 (2012), pp. 997-1007, ISSN 1742-5689 [repository], [doi]  [abs]
  12. Ratmann, O; Donker, G; Meijer, A; Fraser, C; Koelle, K, Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with Approximate Bayesian Computation: influenza as a case study, PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 8 no. 12 (2012), pp. e1002835 [repository]
  13. Yuan, H; Koelle, K, The evolutionary dynamics of receptor binding avidity in influenza A: a mathematical model for a new antigenic drift hypothesis, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B., vol. 368 no. 1614 (2012), pp. 20120204-, ISSN 1471-2970 [doi]  [abs]
  14. Volz, EM; Koelle, K; Bedford, T, Viral phylodynamics, PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 9 no. 3 (2013), pp. e1002947 [repository]
  15. Meyers, LA; Kerr, B; Koelle, K, Network perspectives on infectious disease dynamics, Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, vol. 2011 no. 146765 (2011), pp. 2, ISSN 1687-708X [doi]
  16. Rasmussen, DA; Ratmann, O; Koelle, K, Inference for nonlinear epidemiological models using genealogies and time series, PLoS computational biology, vol. 7 no. 8 (2011), pp. e1002136, ISSN 1553-734X [repository], [doi]  [abs]
  17. Koelle, K; Ratmann, O; Rasmussen, DA; Pasour, V; Mattingly, J, A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, vol. 278 no. 1725 (2011), pp. 3723-3730, ISSN 0962-8452 [repository], [doi]  [abs]
  18. Koelle, K; Khatri, P; Kamradt, M; Kepler, TB, A two-tiered model for simulating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza., Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 7 no. 50 (September, 2010), pp. 1257-1274 [20335193], [doi]  [abs]
  19. Koelle, K., Khatri, P., Kamradt, M., Kepler, T., A two-tiered model for studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza, Journal of the Royal Society, Interface (2010)
  20. Koelle, K; Kamradt, M; Pascual, M, Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: Influenza as a case study, Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, vol. 1 no. 2 (2009), pp. 129-137, ISSN 1755-4365 [doi]  [abs]
  21. Koelle, K, The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, vol. 15 no. s1 (2009), pp. 29-31, ISSN 1198-743X [doi]  [abs]
  22. Koelle, K, The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, vol. 15 no. SUPPL. 1 (2009), pp. 29-31, ISSN 1198-743X [doi]  [abs]
  23. Nagao, Y; Koelle, K, Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, vol. 105 no. 6 (2008), pp. 2238-2243, ISSN 0027-8424 [doi]  [abs]
  24. Cobey, S; Koelle, K, Capturing escape in infectious disease dynamics, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 23 no. 10 (2008), pp. 572-577, ISSN 0169-5347 [doi]  [abs]
  25. Pascual, M; Cazelles, B; Bouma, MJ; Chaves, LF; Koelle, K, Shifting patterns: Malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, vol. 275 no. 1631 (2008), pp. 123-132, ISSN 0962-8452 [doi]  [abs]
  26. Finkelman, BS; Viboud, C; Koelle, K; Ferrari, MJ; Bharti, N; Grenfell, BT, Global patterns in seasonal activity of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral coexistence and latitudinal gradients, PloS one, vol. 2 no. 12 (2007), pp. e1296, ISSN 1932-6203 [doi]  [abs]
  27. Pascual, M; Koelle, K; Dobson, A, Hyperinfectivity in Cholera: A New Mechanism for an Old Epidemiological Model?, PLoS Medicine, vol. 3 no. 6 (2006), pp. e280, ISSN 1549-1277 [doi]
  28. Koelle, K; Pascual, M; Yunus, M, Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, vol. 273 no. 1603 (2006), pp. 2879-2886, ISSN 0962-8452 [doi]  [abs]
  29. Koelle, K; Cobey, S; Grenfell, B; Pascual, M, Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza a (H3N2) in humans, Science, vol. 314 no. 5807 (2006), pp. 1898-1903, ISSN 0036-8075 [doi]  [abs]
  30. Pascual, M; Koelle, K; Dobson, AP, Hyperinfectivity in cholera: A new mechanism for an old epidemiological model? [2], PLoS medicine, vol. 3 no. 6 (2006), pp. 0931-0933, ISSN 1549-1277 [doi]
  31. Koelle, K; Vandermeer, J, Dispersal-induced desynchronization: From metapopulations to metacommunities, Ecology Letters, vol. 8 no. 2 (2005), pp. 167-175, ISSN 1461-023X [doi]  [abs]
  32. Koelle, K; Pascual, M; Yunus, M, Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, vol. 272 no. 1566 (2005), pp. 971-977, ISSN 0962-8452 [doi]  [abs]
  33. Koelle, K; Rodó, X; Pascual, M; Yunus, M; Mostafa, G, Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics, Nature, vol. 436 no. 7051 (2005), pp. 696-700 [doi]  [abs]
  34. Koelle, K; Pascual, M, Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: A nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera, American Naturalist, vol. 163 no. 6 (2004), pp. 901-913, ISSN 0003-0147 [doi]  [abs]
  35. Buckee, CO; Koelle, K; Mustard, MJ; Gupta, S, The effects of host contact network structure on pathogen diversity and strain structure, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 101 no. 29 (2004), pp. 10839-10844 [doi]  [abs]
  36. Blower, SM; Koelle, K; Kirschner, DE; Mills, J, Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, vol. 98 no. 6 (2001), pp. 3618-3623, ISSN 0027-8424 [doi]  [abs]
  37. Blower, S; Koelle, K; Lietman, T, Antibiotic resistance - To treat... [1], Nature Medicine, vol. 5 no. 4 (1999), pp. 358-, ISSN 1078-8956

Papers Accepted

  1. Rasmussen, DA; Volz, EM; Koelle, K, Phylodynamic Inference for Structured Epidemiological Models, edited by Kosakovsky Pond, SL, PLoS computational biology, vol. 10 no. 4 (2014), pp. e1003570-e1003570 [repository], [doi]

Book Chapter

  1. R. Savit, K. Koelle, W. Treynor, R. Gonzalez, Man and Superman: Human Limitations, Innovation, and Emergence in Resource Competition, in Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, edited by Tumer, K. & Wolpert, D. (2004), Springer-Verlag, New York, NY
  2. S.M. Blower, K. Koelle, J. Mills, Health policy modeling: epidemic control, HIV vaccines and risky behavior, in Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs, edited by E. H. Kaplan & R. Brookmeyer (2002), Yale University Press, New Haven, CT