CNCS Center for Nonlinear and Complex Systems
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Publications of Katia Koelle    :chronological  alphabetical  combined  bibtex listing:

Papers Published

  1. Luo, S. and K. Koelle, Navigating the devious course of evolution: the importance of mechanistic models for identifying eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature, The American Naturalist, vol. 181 no. S58-S75 (2013)
  2. Wu, S., Koelle, K., and A. Rodrigo, Coalescent entanglement: conditional dependence of the times-to-common-ancestry of mutually exclusive pairs of individuals, Journal of Heredity, vol. 104 no. 1 (2013), pp. 86-91
  3. Volz, E.M., Koelle, K., Bedford, T., Viral phylodynamics, PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 9 no. 3 (2013), pp. e1002947
  4. Yuan, H., Koelle, K., The evolutionary dynamics of receptor binding avidity in influenza A: a mathematical model for a new antigenic drift hypothesis, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B., vol. 368 no. 1614 (2013), pp. 20120204
  5. Scholle, S.O., Ypma, R., Lloyd, A.L., Koelle, K., Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamicssubstitution rates, The American Naturalist, vol. 182 no. 4 (2013), pp. 494-513 [doi]
  6. WHO-VMI Dengue Vaccine Modeling Group (including K. Koelle), Assessing the potential of a candidate dengue vaccine with mathematical modeling, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 6 no. 3 (2012), pp. e1450 [doi]
  7. Ratmann, O., Donker, G., Meijer, A., Fraser, C., Koelle, K., Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with Approximate Bayesian Computation: influenza as a case study, PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 8 no. 12 (2012), pp. e1002835
  8. K. Koelle, D.A. Rasmussen, Rates of coalescence for epidemiological models at equilibirum, Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, vol. 9 no. 70 (2012), pp. 997-1007 [doi]
  9. N. Arinaminpathy, O. Ratmann, K. Koelle, S.L. Epstein, G.E. Prince, C. Viboud, M. Miller, B. Grenfell, Impact of cross-protective vaccines on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza, PNAS, vol. 109 no. 8 (2012), pp. 3173-3177 [doi]
  10. S. Luo, M. Reed, J.C. Mattingly, K. Koelle, The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape, Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, vol. 9 no. 75 (2012), pp. 2603-2613 [doi]
  11. D.A. Rasmussen, O. Ratmann, K. Koelle, Inference for nonlinear epidemiological models using genealogies and time series, PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 7 no. 8 (2011), pp. e1002136
  12. K. Koelle, O. Ratmann, D.A. Rasmussen, V. Pasour, J. Mattingly, A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, vol. 278 (2011), pp. 3723–3730
  13. Meyers, L.A., Kerr, B., Koelle, K., Network Perspectives on Infectious Disease Dynamics, Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, vol. 2011 no. 146765 (2011), pp. 2
  14. Koelle, K., Khatri, P., Kamradt, M., Kepler, T., A two-tiered model for studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza, Journal of the Royal Society, Interface (2010)
  15. Koelle. K., The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, vol. 15 no. s1 (2009), pp. 29-31
  16. Koelle, K., Kamradt, M., Pascual, M., Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: influenza as a case study, Epidemics, vol. 1 (2009), pp. 129-137
  17. Pascual, M., Cazelles, B., Bouma, M., Chaves, L., Koelle, K., Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences, vol. 275 (2008), pp. 123-132
  18. Cobey, S., Koelle, K., Capturing escape in infectious disease dynamics, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 23 no. 10 (2008), pp. 572-577
  19. Nagao, Y., K. Koelle, K., Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 105 no. 6 (2008), pp. 2238-2243
  20. Finkelman, B., Viboud, C., Koelle, K., Ferrari, M., Bharti, N., Grenfell, B., Global Patterns in Seasonal Activity of Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral Coexistence and Latitudinal Gradients, PLoS One, vol. 2 no. 12 (2007), pp. e1296
  21. Koelle, K., Cobey, S., Grenfell, B., Pascual, M., Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans, Science, vol. 314 (2006), pp. 1898-1903
  22. Koelle, K., Pascual, M., Yunus, M., Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences, vol. 273 (2006), pp. 2879-2886
  23. Pascual, M., Koelle, K., Dobson, A., Hyperinfectivity in Cholera: A New Mechanism for an Old Epidemiological Model?, PLoS Medicine, vol. 3 no. 6 (2006), pp. e280
  24. K. Koelle, X. Rodó, M. Pascual, M. Yunus, G. Mostafa, Refractory periods to climate forcing in cholera dynamics, Nature, vol. 436 (2005), pp. 696-700
  25. K. Koelle, M. Pascual, M. Yunus, Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences, vol. 272 (2005), pp. 971-977
  26. K. Koelle, J. Vandermeer, Dispersal-induced desynchronization: from metapopulations to metacommunities, Ecology Letters, vol. 8 no. 2 (2005), pp. 167-175
  27. C. Buckee, K. Koelle, M. Mustard, S. Gupta, The effects of host contact network structure on pathogen diversity and strain structure, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 101 no. 29 (2004), pp. 10839-10844
  28. K. Koelle, M. Pascual, Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera, The American Naturalist, vol. 163 no. 6 (2004), pp. 901-913
  29. S.M. Blower, K. Koelle, D. E. Kirschner, J. Mills, Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 98 no. 6 (2001), pp. 3618-3623
  30. S.M. Blower, K., Koelle, T. Lietman, Antibiotic resistance- to treat…, Nature Medicine, vol. 5 no. 4 (1999), pp. 358

Book Chapter

  1. R. Savit, K. Koelle, W. Treynor, R. Gonzalez, Man and Superman: Human Limitations, Innovation, and Emergence in Resource Competition, in Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, edited by Tumer, K. & Wolpert, D. (2004), Springer-Verlag, New York, NY
  2. S.M. Blower, K. Koelle, J. Mills, Health policy modeling: epidemic control, HIV vaccines and risky behavior, in Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs, edited by E. H. Kaplan & R. Brookmeyer (2002), Yale University Press, New Haven, CT