Math @ Duke
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Publications [#225363] of Jonathan C. Mattingly
search arxiv.org.Preprints
- with Christy Vaughn, Redistricting and the Will of the People
(October, 2014) [pdf]
(last updated on 2014/10/30)
Abstract: We introduce a non-partisan probability distribution on congressional
redistricting of North Carolina which emphasizes the equal partition of the
population and the compactness of districts. When random districts are drawn and the results of the 2012 election were re-tabulated under the drawn districtings, we find that an average of 7.6 democratic representatives
are elected. 95\% of the randomly sampled redistrictings produced
between 6 and 9 Democrats. Both of these facts are in stark contrast with the 4 Democrats
elected in the 2012 elections with the same vote counts. This brings into serious
question the idea that such elections represent the ``will of the
people.'' It underlines the ability of redistricting to undermine
the democratic process, while on the face allowing democracy to
proceed.
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