Publications of Robert L. Winkler :chronological alphabetical combined bibtex listing:
Books
- Winkler, RL; Makridakis, S; Andersen, A; Carbone, R; Fildes, R; Hibon, M; Lewandowski, R; Newton, J; Parzen, E. The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Method. Wiley, February, 2015.
- Winkler, RL. An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. Probabilistic Pub, January, 2003. 452 pages pp. [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Maridakis, RL; Deplas, M. PSI: Programmes de Statistique Interactif. Les Editions d'Organisation, 1988.
- Winkler, RL; Maridakis, S. ISP: Interactive Statistical Programs. West, 1986.
- Winkler, RL. Statistical Methods. Edited by Harnett, DL. 1975.
- Hays, WL; Winkler, RL. Statistics: probability, inference, and decision. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970. 650 pages pp.
Papers Published
- Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Evaluating quantile forecasts in the M5 uncertainty competition." International Journal of Forecasting 38.4 (October, 2022): 1531-1545. [doi] [abs]
- Makridakis, S; Spiliotis, E; Assimakopoulos, V; Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions." International Journal of Forecasting 38.4 (October, 2022): 1365-1385. [doi] [abs]
- Lichtendahl, KC; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Jose, VR; Winkler, RL. "Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts." Operations Research 70.5 (September, 2022): 2998-3014. [doi] [abs]
- Müller, A; Scarsini, M; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Technical Note—Ranking Distributions When Only Means and Variances Are Known." Operations Research 70.5 (September, 2022): 2851-2859. [doi] [abs]
- Petropoulos, F; Apiletti, D; Assimakopoulos, V; Babai, MZ; Barrow, DK; Ben Taieb, S; Bergmeir, C; Bessa, RJ; Bijak, J; Boylan, JE; Browell, J; Carnevale, C; Castle, JL; Cirillo, P; Clements, MP; Cordeiro, C; Cyrino Oliveira, FL; De Baets, S; Dokumentov, A; Ellison, J; Fiszeder, P; Franses, PH; Frazier, DT; Gilliland, M; Gönül, MS; Goodwin, P; Grossi, L; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Guidolin, M; Gunter, U; Guo, X; Guseo, R; Harvey, N; Hendry, DF; Hollyman, R; Januschowski, T; Jeon, J; Jose, VRR; Kang, Y; Koehler, AB; Kolassa, S; Kourentzes, N; Leva, S; Li, F; Litsiou, K; Makridakis, S; Martin, GM; Martinez, AB; Meeran, S; Modis, T; Nikolopoulos, K; Önkal, D; Paccagnini, A; Panagiotelis, A; Panapakidis, I; Pavía, JM; Pedio, M; Pedregal, DJ; Pinson, P; Ramos, P; Rapach, DE; Reade, JJ; Rostami-Tabar, B; Rubaszek, M; Sermpinis, G; Shang, HL; Spiliotis, E; Syntetos, AA; Talagala, PD; Talagala, TS; Tashman, L; Thomakos, D; Thorarinsdottir, T; Todini, E; Trapero Arenas, JR; Wang, X; Winkler, RL; Yusupova, A; Ziel, F. "Forecasting: theory and practice." International Journal of Forecasting 38.3 (July, 2022): 705-871. [doi] [abs]
- Lichtendahl, KC; Winkler, RL. "Why do some combinations perform better than others?." International Journal of Forecasting 36.1 (January, 2020): 142-149. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results.." (January, 2020). [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Lichtendahl, KC; Jose, VRR. "Probability forecasts and their combination: A research perspective." Decision Analysis 16.4 (January, 2019): 239-260. [doi] [abs]
- Yao, Y; Vehtari, A; Simpson, D; Gelman, A. "Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (with Discussion)." Bayesian Analysis 13.3 (September, 2018): 917-1007. [doi]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance." Journal of Risk and Insurance 85.2 (June, 2018): 431-445. [doi] [abs]
- McCardle, KF; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "When to abandon a research project and search for a new one." Operations Research 66.3 (May, 2018): 799-813. [doi] [abs]
- Müller, A; Scarsini, M; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Between first- and second-order stochastic dominance." Management Science 63.9 (September, 2017): 2933-2947. [doi] [abs]
- Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Lichtendahl, KC; Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL. "Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs." Operations Research 65.3 (May, 2017): 712-728. [doi] [abs]
- Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Combining interval forecasts." Decision Analysis 14.1 (March, 2017): 1-20. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results.." (January, 2017). [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "The importance of communicating uncertainties in forecasts: overestimating the risks from winter storm Juno.." Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35.3 (March, 2015): 349-353. [doi]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL; Huang, RJ; Tzeng, LY. "Generalized almost stochastic dominance." Operations Research 63.2 (March, 2015): 363-377. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Equal versus differential weighting in combining forecasts.." Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35.1 (January, 2015): 16-18. [doi]
- Lichtendahl, KC; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Winkler, RL. "Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?." Management Science 59.7 (January, 2013): 1594-1611. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Johnstone, DJ. "Log-Optimal Economic Evaluation of Probability Forecasts." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society 175.3 (July, 2012): 661-689. [doi] [abs]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Multiattribute one-switch utility." Management Science 58.3 (March, 2012): 602-605. [doi] [abs]
- Belloni, A; Winkler, RL. "On multivariate quantiles under partial orders." The Annals of Statistics 39.2 (April, 2011): 1125-1179. [0912.5489v3], [doi] [abs]
- Johnstone, DJ; Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL. "Tailored scoring rules for probabilities." Decision Analysis 8.4 (January, 2011): 256-268. [doi] [abs]
- Nau, RF; Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL. "Duality between maximization of expected utility and minimization of relative entropy when probabilities are imprecise." ISIPTA 2009 - Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (December, 2009): 337-346. [Gateway.cgi] [abs]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Multiattribute utility satisfying a preference for combining good with bad." Management Science 55.12 (December, 2009): 1942-1952. [doi] [abs]
- Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL. "Evaluating quantile assessments." Operations Research 57.5 (September, 2009): 1287-1297. [doi] [abs]
- Jose, VRR; Nau, RF; Winkler, RL. "Sensitivity to distance and baseline distributions in forecast evaluation." Management Science 55.4 (April, 2009): 582-590. [doi] [abs]
- Jose, VRR; Nau, RF; Winkler, RL. "Scoring rules, generalized entropy, and utility maximization." Operations Research 56.5 (September, 2008): 1146-1157. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Jose, VRR. "Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds." Test 17.2 (August, 2008): 251-255. [doi]
- Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL. "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results." International Journal of Forecasting 24.1 (January, 2008): 163-169. [doi] [abs]
- Nau, R; Jose, VR; Winkler, R. "Scoring rules, entropy, and imprecise probabilities." ISIPTA 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (December, 2007): 307-315. [abs]
- Lichtendahl, KC; Winkler, RL. "Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters." Management Science 53.11 (November, 2007): 1745-1755. [doi] [abs]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: The impact of changes in performance and target distributions." Operations Research 55.2 (March, 2007): 226-233. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "Aggregating probability distributions." Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications (January, 2007): 154-176. [doi] [abs]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility." Decision Analysis 3.2 (June, 2006): 94-99. [doi] [abs]
- Smith, JE; Winkler, RL. "The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis." Management Science 52.3 (March, 2006): 311-322. [doi] [abs]
- Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Risky choices and correlated background risk." Management Science 51.9 (September, 2005): 1336-1345. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Smith, JE. "On uncertainty in medical testing.." Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 24.6 (November, 2004): 654-658. [15534345], [doi] [abs]
- Tsetlin, I; Gaba, A; Winkler, RL. "Strategic choice of variability in multiround contests and contests with handicaps." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 29.2 (September, 2004): 143-158. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Clemen, RT. "Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments." Decision Analysis 1.3 (September, 2004): 167-176. [doi] [abs]
- Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL. "Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests." Operations Research 52.3 (May, 2004): 384-395. [doi] [abs]
- Browne, RH; Winkler, RL. "Winkler, R. L., Smith, J. E., and Fryback, D. G. (2002), "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid," the american statistician, 56, 1-4: Comments by browne [1] (multiple letters)." American Statistician 56.3 (August, 2002): 252-253. [doi]
- Winkler, RL; Smith, JE; Fryback, DG. "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid." American Statistician 56.1 (January, 2002): 1-4. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Why Bayesian analysis hasn't caught on in healthcare decision making.." International journal of technology assessment in health care 17.1 (January, 2001): 56-66. [11329845], [doi] [abs]
- Smith, JE; Winkler, RL; Fryback, DG. "The first positive: computing positive predictive value at the extremes.." Annals of internal medicine 132.10 (May, 2000): 804-809. [10819704], [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Fischer, GW; Winkler, RL. "Assessing dependence: some experimental results." Management Science 46.8 (January, 2000): 1100-1115. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis." Risk Analysis 19.2 (April, 1999): 187-203. [doi] [abs]
- Smith, JE; Winkler, RL. "Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test." Interfaces 29.3 (January, 1999): 63-76. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Evaluation of probabilities: A level playing field?." DECISION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: REFLECTIONS ON THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF WARD EDWARDS (January, 1999): 155-170. [Gateway.cgi]
- Boiney, LG; Winkler, RL; Sarin, RK; Matchar, DB. "Combining Patient Utility with Health Status Assessment to Improve Medical Decision Making." Journal of Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis 5.4 (December, 1996): 248-258. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment." Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54.2-3 (November, 1996): 127-132. [doi] [abs]
- Abramson, B; Brown, J; Edwards, W; Murphy, A; Winkler, RL. "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather." International Journal of Forecasting 12.1 (January, 1996): 57-71. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Muñoz, J; Cervera, JL; Bernardo, JM; Blattenberger, G; Kadane, JB; Lindley, DV; Murphy, AH; Oliver, RM; Ríos-Insua, D. "Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities." Test 5.1 (January, 1996): 1-60. [doi] [abs]
- Boiney, LG; Winkler, RL; Sarin, RK; Matchar, DB. "Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making." Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 5.4 (January, 1996): 248-258. [doi] [abs]
- Dawid, AP; DeGroot, MH; Mortera, J; Cooke, R; French, S; Genest, C; Schervish, MJ; Lindley, DV; McConway, KJ; Winkler, RL. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions." Test 4.2 (December, 1995): 263-313. [doi] [abs]
- Gaba, A; Winkler, RL. "The impact of testing errors on value of information: A quality-control example." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 10.1 (January, 1995): 5-13. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Wallsten, TS; Whitfield, RG; Richmond, HM; Hayes, SR; Rosenbaum, AS. "Assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure." Operations Research 43.1 (January, 1995): 19-28. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining." International Journal of Forecasting 11.1 (January, 1995): 133-145. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules." Management Science 40.11 (November, 1994): 1395-1405. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- WINKLER, RL. "VALUED-FOCUSED THINKING." SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 36.1 (September, 1994): 5-5. [Gateway.cgi]
- Kadane, JB; Girón, J; Peña, D; Fishburn, P; French, S; Lindley, DV; Parmigiani, G; Winkler, RL. "Several Bayesians: A review." Test 2.1-2 (December, 1993): 1-32. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Poses, RM. "Evaluating and combining physicians' probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit." Management Science 39.12 (January, 1993): 1526-1543. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "Aggregating point estimates. A flexible modeling approach." Management Science 39.4 (January, 1993): 501-516. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Several Bayesians: Multiple-Person Problems." TEST 2.1-2 (1993): 25-29.
- Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL. "Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5.4 (October, 1992): 389-407. [doi] [abs]
- Gaba, A; Winkler, RL. "Implications of Errors in Survey Data: A Bayesian Model." Management Science 38.7 (July, 1992): 913-925. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Clemen, RT. "Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts." Operations Research 40.3 (June, 1992): 609-614. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- McCardle, KF; Winkler, RL. "Repeated Gambles, Learning, and Risk Aversion." Management Science 38.6 (June, 1992): 807-818. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts." International Journal of Forecasting 7.4 (January, 1992): 435-455. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method." International Journal of Forecasting 8.1 (January, 1992): 104-107. [doi]
- Miller, CM; Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts." International Journal of Forecasting 7.4 (January, 1992): 515-529. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Ambiguity, probability, preference, and decision analysis." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4.3 (July, 1991): 285-297. [doi] [abs]
- WEST, M; WINKLER, RL. "DATA-BASE ERROR TRAPPING AND PREDICTION." JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 86.416 (1991): 987-996. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Poses, RM; Bekes, C; Winkler, RL; Scott, WE; Copare, FJ. "Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients.." Archives of internal medicine 150.9 (September, 1990): 1874-1878. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters." Management Science 36.7 (July, 1990): 767-779. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Decision Modeling and Rational Choice: AHP and Utility Theory." Management Science 36.3 (March, 1990): 247-248. [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
- Winkler, RL. "Comment: Representing and communicating uncertainty." Statistical Science 5.1 (January, 1990): 26-30. [doi]
- Edwards, W; Schum, DA; Winkler, RL. "Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A Trialogue." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3.2 (January, 1990): 75-89. [doi] [abs]
- Haves, SR; Rosenbaum, AS; Wallsten, TS; Whitfield, RG; Winkler, RL; Richmond, H. "A health risk assessment for use in setting the U.S. primary ozone standard." Studies in Environmental Science 35.C (December, 1989): 851-867. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues." International Journal of Forecasting 5.4 (January, 1989): 605-609. [doi] [abs]
- McCardle, KF; Winkler, RL. "All Roads Lead to Risk Preference: A Turnpike Theorem for Conditionally Independent Returns." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24.1 (January, 1989): 13-28. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Uncertainty about processes that shift over time: Modeling and analysis." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7.4 (January, 1989): 419-422. [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
- MAKRIDAKIS, S; WINKLER, RL. "SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF POST-SAMPLE FORECASTING ERRORS." JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS 38.2 (January, 1989): 331-342. [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
- Kadane, JB; Winkler, RL. "Separating probability elicitation from utilities." Journal of the American Statistical Association 83.402 (January, 1988): 357-363. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "A general framework for forecast verification." Monthly Weather Review 115.7 (January, 1987): 1330-1338. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Expert Resolution." Management Science 32.3 (March, 1986): 298-303. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Conroy, RM; Winkler, RL. "Market structure. The specialist as dealer and broker." Journal of Banking and Finance 10.1 (January, 1986): 21-36. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "Combining Economic Forecasts." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 4.1 (January, 1986): 39-39. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Comment." Statistical Science 1.1 (January, 1986): 138-140. [doi]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "Combining economic forecasts." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4.1 (January, 1986): 39-46. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Katz, RW; Winkler, RL; Hsu, W-R. "Repetitive Decision Making and the Value of Forecasts in the Cost‐Loss Ratio Situation: A Dynamic Model." Monthly Weather Review 113.5 (May, 1985): 801-813. [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
- Murphy, AH; Wu-Ron Hsu, ; Winkler, RL; Wilks, DS. "The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: some experimental results.." Monthly Weather Review 113.12 (January, 1985): 2075-2089. [doi] [abs]
- Cohen, MD; Huber, G; Keeney, RL; Levis, AH; Lopes, LL; Sage, AP; Sen, S; Whinston, AB; Winkler, RL; Von Winterfeldt, D; Zadeh, L. "Research Needs and the Phenomena of Decisionmaking and Operations." IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-15.6 (January, 1985): 764-775. [doi] [abs]
- Keeney, RL; Winkler, RL. "EVALUATING DECISION STRATEGIES FOR EQUITY OF PUBLIC RISKS.." Operations Research 33.5 (January, 1985): 955-970. [doi] [abs]
- Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL. "LIMITS FOR THE PRECISION AND VALUE OF INFORMATION FROM DEPENDENT SOURCES.." Operations Research 33.2 (January, 1985): 427-442. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Comment: Bayesian model building and forecasting." Journal of the American Statistical Association 80.389 (January, 1985): 95. [doi]
- Keeney, RL; Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL. "Analysis of alternative national ambient carbon monoxide standards." Management Science 30.4 (January, 1984): 518-528. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Probability forecasting in meteorology." Journal of the American Statistical Association 79.387 (January, 1984): 489-500. [Gateway.cgi], [doi] [abs]
- Keeney, RL; Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL. "RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL AMBIENT CARBON MONOXIDE STANDARDS.." Proceedings, Annual Meeting - Air Pollution Control Association 1 (December, 1983).
- Goss, DA; Winkler, RL. "Progression of myopia in youth: age of cessation.." American journal of optometry and physiological optics 60.8 (August, 1983): 651-658. [doi] [abs]
- Goss, DA; Winkler, RL. "Progression of myopia in youth: Age of cessation." Optometry and Vision Science 60.8 (January, 1983): 651-658. [abs]
- Makridakis, S; Winkler, RL. "AVERAGES OF FORECASTS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.." Management Science 29.7 (January, 1983): 987-996. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH; Katz, RW. "The value of climate information: A decision‐analytic approach." Journal of Climatology 3.2 (January, 1983): 187-197. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvement of the Overall Forecasting Process." Journal of Forecasting 2 (1983): 293-294.
- Winkler, RL; Makridakis, S. "The Combination of Forecasts." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 146.2 (1983): 150-157.
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Subjective Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Some Experimental Results." Monthly Weather Review 110.9 (September, 1982): 1288-1297. [doi]
- Katz, RW; Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: a dynamic decision-making approach.." Journal of Applied Meteorology 21.4 (January, 1982): 518-531. [doi] [abs]
- Harpaz, G; Lee, W; Winkler, RL. "LEARNING, EXPERIMENTATION, AND THE OPTIMAL OUTPUT DECISIONS OF A COMPETITIVE FIRM.." Management Science 28.6 (January, 1982): 589-603. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "State of the Art: RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY." Decision Sciences 13.4 (January, 1982): 517-533. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Makridakis, S; Andersen, A; Carbone, R; Fildes, R; Hibon, M; Lewandowski, R; Newton, J; Parzen, E. "The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition." Journal of Forecasting 1.2 (1982): 111-153. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources." Management Science 27.4 (April, 1981): 479-488. [doi] [abs]
- Eliashberg, J; Winkler, RL. "RISK SHARING AND GROUP DECISION MAKING.." Management Science 27.11 (January, 1981): 1221-1235. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Sarin, RK. "Risk assessment: consulting the experts.." Environmental Professional 3.3-4 (January, 1981): 265-276. [abs]
- Conroy, RM; Winkler, RL. "Informational Differences Between Limit and Market Orders for a Market Maker." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 16.5 (January, 1981): 703-724. [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
- Murphy, AH; Lichtenstein, S; Fischhoff, B; Winkler, RL. "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).." 61.7 (December, 1980). [abs]
- Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL. "Performance-Based Incentive Plans." Management Science 26.11 (November, 1980): 1131-1144. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Brooks, DG. "Competitive Bidding with Dependent Value Estimates." Operations Research 28.3-part-i (June, 1980): 603-613. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Lichtenstein, S; Fischhoff, B; Winkler, RL. "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).." Bulletin, American Meteorological Society 61.7 (January, 1980). [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Lichtenstein, S; Fischhoff, B; Winkler, RL. "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).." (January, 1980). [abs]
- Kadane, JB; Dickey, JM; Winkler, RL; Smith, WS; Peters, SC. "Interactive elicitation of opinion for a normal linear model." Journal of the American Statistical Association 75.372 (January, 1980): 845-854. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results.." (January, 1979). [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program.." Bulletin American Meteorological Society 60.1 (January, 1979): 12-19. [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures.." Meteorological Magazine 108.1288 (January, 1979): 317-329. [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Franklin, LA. "Warner’s randomized response model: A Bayesian approach." Journal of the American Statistical Association 74.365 (January, 1979): 207-214. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Comment." American Statistician 32.2 (January, 1978): 54-56. [doi]
- Eliashberg, J; Winkler, RL. "ROLE OF ATTITUDE TOWARD RISK IN STRICTLY COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING SITUATIONS.." 24.12 (January, 1978): 1231-1241. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Statisticians Can Matter: Comment." The American statistician 32.2 (1978): 54-56. [doi]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects." National Weather Digest 2.2 (1977): 2-9.
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Experimental Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects." Atmosphere 15.2 (1977): 61-78. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 26.1 (1977): 41-47.
- Matheson, JE; Winkler, RL. "SCORING RULES FOR CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.." Management Science 22.10 (January, 1976): 1087-1096. [doi] [abs]
- Barry, CB; Winkler, RL. "Nohstationarity and portfolio choice." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11.2 (January, 1976): 217-235. [doi]
- Jaffe, JF; Winkler, RL. "OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET." The Journal of Finance 31.1 (January, 1976): 49-61. [doi]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Experimental Results." Monthly Weather Review 104.1 (January, 1976): 86-95. [doi]
- Winkler, RL; Barry, CB. "Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11.2 (1976): 217-235. [doi]
- Marschak, J; Degroot, MH; Borch, K; Chernoff, H; De Groot, M; Dorfman, R; Edwards, W; Ferguson, TS; Miyasawa, K; Randolph, P; Savage, LJ; Schlaifer, R; Winkler, RL. "Personal probabilities of probabilities." Theory and Decision 6.2 (May, 1975): 121-153. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 70.350 (January, 1975): 290-291. [doi]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results.." (January, 1975). [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Barry, CB. "A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION." The Journal of Finance 30.1 (January, 1975): 179-192. [doi]
- Britney, RR; Winkler, RL. "Bayesian point estimation and prediction." Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 26.1 (December, 1974): 15-34. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 55.12 (December, 1974): 1449-1452. [doi]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results." Monthly Weather Review 102.11 (November, 1974): 784-794. [doi]
- Winkler, RL. "Information Aggregation in Probabilistic Prediction." IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-3.2 (January, 1973): 154-160. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Experiments in the laboratory and the real world." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 10.2 (January, 1973): 252-270. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Bayesianism: Its Unifying Role for Both the Foundations and the Applications of Statistics: Comments." Bulleting of the International Statistical Institute 45.4 (1973): 375-375.
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Subjective Probability Forecasting of Temperature: Some Experimental Results." Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute 45.2 (1973): 247-268.
- Winkler, RL. "Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 8 (1973): 387-405.
- Winkler, RL; Roodman, GM; Britney, RR. "The Determination of Partial Moments." Management Science 19.3 (November, 1972): 290-296. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Cummings, LL. "On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 7.1 (January, 1972): 63-76. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "A decision-theoretic approach to interval estimation." Journal of the American Statistical Association 67.337 (January, 1972): 187-191. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle, and Some Probability Paradoxes in Choice from Among Random Alternatives: Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 67.2 (1972): 376-378. [doi]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52.4 (April, 1971): 239-248. [doi]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52.3 (March, 1971): 158-166. [doi]
- Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results." Journal of the American Statistical Association 66.4 (1971): 675-685. [doi] [abs]
- Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL. "Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation." Acta Psychologica 34.C (January, 1970): 273-286. [doi] [abs]
- WINKLER RL, ; MURPHY AH, . "NONLINEAR UTILITY AND THE PROBABILITY SCORE." Journal of Applied Meteorology 9.1 (January, 1970): 143-148. [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Intuitive bayesian point estimation." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 5.5 (January, 1970): 417-429. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "Tables of the nth Order Partial Moments about the Origin for the Standard Normal Distribution, n=1(1)6." Mathematics of Computation 24 (1970): 995-995.
- Winkler, RL. "Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors." Journal of the American Statistical Association 64.3 (1969): 1073-1078. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "“Good” Probability Assessors." Journal of Applied Meteorology 7.5 (October, 1968): 751-758. [doi]
- Winkler, RL. "The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions." Management Science 15.2 (October, 1968): B-61-B-75. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions." Journal of the American Statistical Association 62.320 (January, 1967): 1105-1120. [doi] [abs]
- Winkler, RL. "The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis." Journal of the American Statistical Association 62.3 (1967): 776-800. [doi] [abs]