Publications of D. Sunshine Hillygus
%% Books
@book{fds370096,
Author = {Holbein, JB and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Making Young Voters},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
Year = {2020},
Month = {January},
ISBN = {9781108488426},
Doi = {10.1017/9781108770446},
Key = {fds370096}
}
@book{fds348530,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Shields, TG},
Title = {The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in Presidential
Campaigns},
Pages = {1-249},
Year = {2014},
Month = {April},
ISBN = {9780691143361},
Abstract = {The use of wedge issues such as abortion, gay marriage, and
immigration has become standard political strategy in
contemporary presidential campaigns. Why do candidates use
such divisive appeals? Who in the electorate is persuaded by
these controversial issues? And what are the consequences
for American democracy? In this provocative and engaging
analysis of presidential campaigns, Sunshine Hillygus and
Todd Shields identify the types of citizens responsive to
campaign information, the reasons they are responsive, and
the tactics candidates use to sway these pivotal voters. The
Persuadable Voter shows how emerging information
technologies have changed the way candidates communicate,
who they target, and what issues they talk about. As
Hillygus and Shields explore the complex relationships
between candidates, voters, and technology, they reveal
potentially troubling results for political equality and
democratic governance. The Persuadable Voter examines recent
and historical campaigns using a wealth of data from
national surveys, experimental research, campaign
advertising, archival work, and interviews with campaign
practitioners. With its rigorous multimethod approach and
broad theoretical perspective, the book offers a timely and
thorough understanding of voter decision making, candidate
strategy, and the dynamics of presidential
campaigns.},
Key = {fds348530}
}
@book{fds249874,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Shields, TG},
Title = {The persuadable voter: Wedge issues in presidential
campaigns},
Pages = {1-249},
Publisher = {Princeton University Press},
Year = {2009},
Month = {August},
ISBN = {9780691143361},
Abstract = {The use of wedge issues such as abortion, gay marriage, and
immigration has become standard political strategy in
contemporary presidential campaigns. Why do candidates use
such divisive appeals? Who in the electorate is persuaded by
these controversial issues? And what are the consequences
for American democracy? In this provocative and engaging
analysis of presidential campaigns, Sunshine Hillygus and
Todd Shields identify the types of citizens responsive to
campaign information, the reasons they are responsive, and
the tactics candidates use to sway these pivotal voters. The
Persuadable Voter shows how emerging information
technologies have changed the way candidates communicate,
who they target, and what issues they talk about. As
Hillygus and Shields explore the complex relationships
between candidates, voters, and technology, they reveal
potentially troubling results for political equality and
democratic governance. The Persuadable Voter examines recent
and historical campaigns using a wealth of data from
national surveys, experimental research, campaign
advertising, archival work, and interviews with campaign
practitioners. With its rigorous multimethod approach and
broad theoretical perspective, the book offers a timely and
thorough understanding of voter decision making, candidate
strategy, and the dynamics of presidential campaigns. ©
2008 by Princeton University Press. All Rights
Reserved.},
Key = {fds249874}
}
@book{fds249862,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Nie, NH and Prewitt, K and Pals,
H},
Title = {The Hard Count: The Political and Social Challenges of
Census Mobilization},
Pages = {168 pages},
Publisher = {Russell Sage Foundation},
Year = {2006},
Month = {April},
ISBN = {9781610442886},
Abstract = {In The Hard Count, former Census Bureau director Kenneth
Prewitt, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Norman H. Nie, and Heili Pals
present a rigorous evaluation of this campaign.},
Key = {fds249862}
}
%% Chapters in Books
@misc{fds249869,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The practice of survey research: Changes and
challenges},
Pages = {21-40},
Booktitle = {New Directions in Public Opinion},
Year = {2019},
Month = {November},
ISBN = {9781351054621},
Key = {fds249869}
}
@misc{fds348526,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Snell, S},
Title = {Longitudinal Surveys: Issues and Opportunities},
Pages = {28-52},
Booktitle = {Oxford Handbook on Polling and Polling Methods},
Editor = {Alvarez, M and Atkinson, L},
Year = {2015},
Month = {December},
ISBN = {9780190213299},
Abstract = {Longitudinal or panel surveys, in which the same individuals
are interviewed repeatedly over time, are increasingly
common in the social sciences. The benefit of such surveys
is that they track the same respondents so that researchers
can measure individual-level change over time, offering
greater causal leverage than cross-sectional surveys. Panel
surveys share the challenges of other surveys while also
facing several unique issues in design, implementation, and
analysis. This chapter considers three such challenges: (1)
the tension between continuity and innovation in the
questionnaire design; (2) panel attrition, whereby some
individuals who complete the first wave of the survey fail
to participate in subsequent waves; and (3) specific types
of measurement error—panel conditioning and seam bias. It
includes an overview of these issues and their implications
for data quality and outlines approaches for diagnosing and
correcting for these issues in the design and analysis of
panel surveys.},
Doi = {10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190213299.013.7},
Key = {fds348526}
}
@misc{fds348529,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Jackson, N and Young, M},
Title = {Professional respondents in nonprobability online
panels},
Pages = {219-237},
Booktitle = {Online Panel Research: A Data Quality Perspective},
Year = {2014},
Month = {May},
ISBN = {9781119941774},
Abstract = {It is well-documented that there exists a pool of frequent
survey takers who participate in many different online
nonprobability panels in order to earn cash or other
incentives--so-called 'professional' respondents. Despite
widespread concern about the impact of these professional
respondents on data quality, there is not a clear
understanding of how they might differ from other
respondents. This chapter reviews the previous research and
expectations regarding professional respondents and then
examines how frequent survey taking and multiple panel
participation affects data quality in the 2010 Cooperative
Congressional Election Study. In contrast to common
assumptions, we do not find overwhelming and consistent
evidence that frequent survey takers are more likely to
satisfice. On the contrary, frequent survey takers spent
more time completing the questionnaire, were less likely to
attrite, were less likely to straightline, and reported
putting more effort into answering the survey. While panel
memberships and number of surveys completed were related to
skipping questions, answering "don't know," or giving junk
responses to open-ended questions, these relationships did
not hold once we account for levels of political knowledge.
However, our analysis finds that higher levels of
participation in surveys and online panels are associated
with lower levels of political knowledge, interest,
engagement, and ideological extremism. These findings
suggest there could be contrasting motivations for those
volunteering to participate in nonprobability panel surveys,
with professional respondents taking part for the incentives
and nonprofessional respondents taking part based on
interest in the survey topic. As such, eliminating
professional respondents from survey estimates, as some have
recommended, would actually result in a more biased estimate
of political outcomes.},
Doi = {10.1002/9781118763520.ch10},
Key = {fds348529}
}
@misc{fds249871,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Jackson, N and Young, M},
Title = {“Professional Respondents in Online Survey Panels,”
Online Panel Research - A Data Quality Perspective.},
Booktitle = {Online Panel Research - A Data Quality Perspective},
Publisher = {Wiley},
Editor = {M Callegaro and RB and Lavrakas, P and Krosnick, J and Bethlehem, J and Gritz, A},
Year = {2014},
Key = {fds249871}
}
@misc{fds249872,
Author = {Frankel, L and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Niche Communication in Political Campaigns},
Booktitle = {Oxford Handbook on Political Communication},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press},
Editor = {Jamieson, KH and Kenski, K},
Year = {2014},
Key = {fds249872}
}
@misc{fds249870,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Burden, B},
Title = {Mass Polarization in the Bush Presidency},
Booktitle = {The Presidency of George W. Bush: Perspectives on the
Forty-Third President of the United States},
Publisher = {Texas A&M Press},
Editor = {Kelly, D and Shields, T},
Year = {2013},
Key = {fds249870}
}
@misc{fds249868,
Author = {Bishop, B and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Campaigning, Debating, Advertising},
Booktitle = {Oxford Handbook on Media and Public Opinion},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Editor = {Jacobs, L and Shapiro, R},
Year = {2011},
Key = {fds249868}
}
@misc{fds249866,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Campaign Effects on Vote Choice},
Booktitle = {Oxford Handbook on Political Behavior},
Year = {2009},
Key = {fds249866}
}
@misc{fds249867,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The Need for Survey Reporting Standards in Political
Science},
Booktitle = {The Future of Political Science: 100 Perspectives},
Year = {2009},
Key = {fds249867}
}
@misc{fds348532,
Author = {Nie, NH and Hillygus, DS and Erbring, L},
Title = {Internet Use, Interpersonal Relations, and Sociability: A
Time Diary Study},
Pages = {213-243},
Booktitle = {The Internet in Everyday Life},
Year = {2008},
Month = {February},
ISBN = {9780631235071},
Abstract = {Using exciting new time diary data, we explore the complex
ways in which the Internetaffects interpersonal
communication and sociability. Rather than dwelling on the
increasinglystale debate about whether the Internet is good
or bad for sociability, we analyzewhen and where Internet
use impacts face-to-face interactions. Internet use at home
hasa strong negative impact on time spent with friends and
family, while Internet use at workis strongly related to
decreased time with colleagues (but has little effect on
social timewith friends and family). Similarly, Internet use
during the weekends is more stronglyrelated to decreased
time spent with friends and family than Internet use during
weekdays.Our findings offer support for a "displacement" or
"hydraulic" theory of Internetuse - time online is largely
an asocial activity that competes with, rather than
complements,face-to-face social time - but it is the
location and timing of Internet use thatdetermines which
interpersonal relationships are affected},
Doi = {10.1002/9780470774298.ch7},
Key = {fds348532}
}
@misc{fds348533,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Moral Values: Media, voters, and candidate
strategy},
Pages = {65-79},
Booktitle = {A Matter of Faith: Religion in the 2004 Presidential
Election},
Year = {2007},
Month = {December},
ISBN = {9780815713272},
Abstract = {The conventional wisdom about the 2004 presidential election
is that the electorate voted on the basis of "moral
values."1 Journalists and pundits largely concluded that
Bush won reelection because his stance on moral issues,
especially gay marriage and abortion, coincided more closely
than that of Kerry with the views of the American public.2
The London Times reported that "Americans voted in record
numbers for a Republican president primarily because they
identified with his moral agenda."3 Tony Perkins, president
of the Family Research Council, insisted that same-sex
marriage was "the hood ornament on the family values wagon
that carried the president to a second term."4 Some scholars
have similarly concluded that the anti-gay marriage ballot
initiatives contributed to Bush's victory,5 although others
have challenged the assumption that voters were primarily
concerned about moral issues in the 2004 election.6 In this
chapter, I evaluate the relationship between presidential
vote choice and attitudes on gay marriage, abortion, and
other prominent campaign issues. The findings suggest that
the election was not primarily a referendum on gay marriage
or abortion policy. Rather, as in most elections in the
past, the economy and war appeared to be foremost on the
minds of most voters. The results show that gay marriage and
abortion had roughly the same effect on their vote as the
issues of Social Security reform, the environment, education
policy, and a minimum wage increase. On the surface, this
chapter may appear to run counter to the others in this
volume. I conclude that the election was not fundamentally
"about" the moral issues of gay marriage and abortion. At
the same time, however, the analysis suggests that "matters
of faith" might have influenced at least one aspect of the
candidates' campaign strategies and policy appeals-their
ground war communications. Religious fractures within the
traditional party coalitions created incentives for
candidates to appeal to narrow issue publics on wedge issues
like abortion and gay marriage (among many others) while
focusing the broader campaign, especially television
advertising and news coverage, on Iraq and terrorism. The
2004 campaigns were able to use information and
communication technologies to microtarget different issue
publics with the specific policies that they cared about.
Thus, although the analysis in this chapter suggests that
most voters (or the average American voter) did not select a
candidate on the basis of moral issues, it is important to
recognize that a subset of voters cared about moral issues
and that the Bush campaign was able to use direct mail,
phone calls, and personal canvassing to emphasize issues
like abortion and gay marriage for that subset of voters.
(See chapter 7, by David Campbell and Quin Monson, in this
volume.). © 2007 Royal Institute of International
Affairs.},
Key = {fds348533}
}
%% Journal Articles
@article{fds375487,
Author = {Tang, J and Hillygus, DS and Reiter, JP},
Title = {Using Auxiliary Marginal Distributions in Imputations for
Nonresponse while Accounting for Survey Weights, with
Application to Estimating Voter Turnout},
Journal = {Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology},
Volume = {12},
Number = {1},
Pages = {155-182},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2024},
Month = {February},
Abstract = {In many survey settings, population counts or percentages
are available for some of the variables in the survey, for
example, from censuses, administrative databases, or other
high-quality surveys. We present a model-based approach to
utilize such auxiliary marginal distributions in multiple
imputation for unit and item nonresponse in complex surveys.
In doing so, we ensure that the imputations produce
design-based estimates that are plausible given the known
margins. We introduce and utilize a hybrid missingness model
comprising a pattern mixture model for unit nonresponse and
selection models for item nonresponse. We also develop a
computational strategy for estimating the parameters of and
generating imputations with hybrid missingness models. We
apply a hybrid missingness model to examine voter turnout by
subgroups using the 2018 Current Population Survey for North
Carolina. The hybrid missingness model also facilitates
modeling measurement errors simultaneously with handling
missing values. We illustrate this feature with the voter
turnout application by examining how results change when we
allow for overreporting, that is, individuals self-reporting
that they voted when in fact they did not.},
Doi = {10.1093/jssam/smad033},
Key = {fds375487}
}
@article{fds370093,
Author = {Jamieson, KH and Lupia, A and Amaya, A and Brady, HE and Bautista, R and Clinton, JD and Dever, JA and Dutwin, D and Goroff, DL and Hillygus, DS and Kennedy, C and Langer, G and Lapinski, JS and Link, M and Philpot, T and Prewitt, K and Rivers, D and Vavreck, L and Wilson, DC and McNutt,
MK},
Title = {Protecting the integrity of survey research.},
Journal = {PNAS nexus},
Volume = {2},
Number = {3},
Pages = {pgad049},
Year = {2023},
Month = {March},
Abstract = {Although polling is not irredeemably broken, changes in
technology and society create challenges that, if not
addressed well, can threaten the quality of election polls
and other important surveys on topics such as the economy.
This essay describes some of these challenges and recommends
remediations to protect the integrity of all kinds of survey
research, including election polls. These 12 recommendations
specify ways that survey researchers, and those who use
polls and other public-oriented surveys, can increase the
accuracy and trustworthiness of their data and analyses.
Many of these recommendations align practice with the
scientific norms of transparency, clarity, and
self-correction. The transparency recommendations focus on
improving disclosure of factors that affect the nature and
quality of survey data. The clarity recommendations call for
more precise use of terms such as "representative sample"
and clear description of survey attributes that can affect
accuracy. The recommendation about correcting the record
urges the creation of a publicly available, professionally
curated archive of identified technical problems and their
remedies. The paper also calls for development of better
benchmarks and for additional research on the effects of
panel conditioning. Finally, the authors suggest ways to
help people who want to use or learn from survey research
understand the strengths and limitations of surveys and
distinguish legitimate and problematic uses of these
methods.},
Doi = {10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad049},
Key = {fds370093}
}
@article{fds370094,
Author = {Endres, K and Hillygus, DS and Debell, M and Iyengar,
S},
Title = {A randomized experiment evaluating survey mode effects for
video interviewing},
Journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
Volume = {11},
Number = {1},
Pages = {144-159},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},
Year = {2023},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {Rising costs and challenges of in-person interviewing have
prompted major surveys to consider moving online and
conducting live web-based video interviews. In this paper,
we evaluate video mode effects using a two-wave experimental
design in which respondents were randomized to either an
interviewer-administered video or interviewer-administered
in-person survey wave after completing a self-administered
online survey wave. This design permits testing of both
within- and between-subject differences across survey modes.
Our findings suggest that video interviewing is more
comparable to in-person interviewing than online
interviewing across multiple measures of satisficing, social
desirability, and respondent satisfaction.},
Doi = {10.1017/psrm.2022.30},
Key = {fds370094}
}
@article{fds356795,
Author = {Akande, O and Madson, G and Hillygus, DS and Reiter,
JP},
Title = {Leveraging Auxiliary Information on Marginal Distributions
in Nonignorable Models for Item and Unit
Nonresponse.},
Journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A,
(Statistics in Society)},
Volume = {184},
Number = {2},
Pages = {643-662},
Year = {2021},
Month = {April},
Abstract = {Often, government agencies and survey organizations know the
population counts or percentages for some of the variables
in a survey. These may be available from auxiliary sources,
for example, administrative databases or other high quality
surveys. We present and illustrate a model-based framework
for leveraging such auxiliary marginal information when
handling unit and item nonresponse. We show how one can use
the margins to specify different missingness mechanisms for
each type of nonresponse. We use the framework to impute
missing values in voter turnout in a subset of data from the
U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS). In doing so, we
examine the sensitivity of results to different assumptions
about the unit and item nonresponse.},
Doi = {10.1111/rssa.12635},
Key = {fds356795}
}
@article{fds348510,
Author = {Madson, GJ and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of
Political Polling},
Journal = {Political Behavior},
Volume = {42},
Number = {4},
Pages = {1055-1072},
Year = {2020},
Month = {December},
Abstract = {Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of
information? Experts tend to evaluate the credibility of
polls based on the survey methods used, vendor track record,
and data transparency, but it is unclear if the public does
the same. In two different experimental studies—one
focusing on candidate evaluations in the 2016 U.S. election
and one on a policy issue—we find a significant factor in
respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll
results themselves. Respondents viewed polls as more
credible when majority opinion matched their opinion.
Moreover, we find evidence of attitude polarization after
viewing polling results, suggesting motivated reasoning in
the evaluations of political polls. These findings indicate
that evaluations of polls are biased by motivated reasoning
and suggest that such biases could constrain the possible
impact of polls on political decision making.},
Doi = {10.1007/s11109-019-09532-1},
Key = {fds348510}
}
@article{fds348515,
Author = {Holbein, JB and Hillygus, DS and Lenard, MA and Gibson-Davis, C and Hill, DV},
Title = {The Development of Students' Engagement in School, Community
and Democracy},
Journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
Volume = {50},
Number = {4},
Pages = {1439-1457},
Year = {2020},
Month = {October},
Abstract = {This article explores the origins of youth engagement in
school, community and democracy. Specifically, it considers
the role of psychosocial or non-cognitive abilities, like
grit or perseverance. Using a novel original large-scale
longitudinal survey of students linked to school
administrative records and a variety of modeling techniques
- including sibling, twin and individual fixed effects - the
study finds that psychosocial abilities are a strong
predictor of youth civic engagement. Gritty students miss
less class time and are more engaged in their schools, are
more politically efficacious, are more likely to intend to
vote when they become eligible, and volunteer more. Our work
highlights the value of psychosocial attributes in the
political socialization of young people.},
Doi = {10.1017/S000712341800025X},
Key = {fds348515}
}
@article{fds348508,
Author = {Bail, CA and Guay, B and Maloney, E and Combs, A and Hillygus, DS and Merhout, F and Freelon, D and Volfovsky, A},
Title = {Assessing the Russian Internet Research Agency's impact on
the political attitudes and behaviors of American Twitter
users in late 2017.},
Journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America},
Volume = {117},
Number = {1},
Pages = {243-250},
Year = {2020},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {There is widespread concern that Russia and other countries
have launched social-media campaigns designed to increase
political divisions in the United States. Though a growing
number of studies analyze the strategy of such campaigns, it
is not yet known how these efforts shaped the political
attitudes and behaviors of Americans. We study this question
using longitudinal data that describe the attitudes and
online behaviors of 1,239 Republican and Democratic Twitter
users from late 2017 merged with nonpublic data about the
Russian Internet Research Agency (IRA) from Twitter. Using
Bayesian regression tree models, we find no evidence that
interaction with IRA accounts substantially impacted 6
distinctive measures of political attitudes and behaviors
over a 1-mo period. We also find that interaction with IRA
accounts were most common among respondents with strong
ideological homophily within their Twitter network, high
interest in politics, and high frequency of Twitter usage.
Together, these findings suggest that Russian trolls might
have failed to sow discord because they mostly interacted
with those who were already highly polarized. We conclude by
discussing several important limitations of our
study-especially our inability to determine whether IRA
accounts influenced the 2016 presidential election-as well
as its implications for future research on social media
influence campaigns, political polarization, and
computational social science.},
Doi = {10.1073/pnas.1906420116},
Key = {fds348508}
}
@article{fds370098,
Author = {Valentino, NA and Zhirkov, K and Hillygus, DS and Guay,
B},
Title = {The consequences of personality biases in online panels for
measuring public opinion},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {84},
Number = {2},
Pages = {446-468},
Year = {2020},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {Online surveys, particularly those that draw samples from
online panels of experienced respondents, now comprise a
large segment of the academic and commercial opinion
research markets due to their low cost and flexibility. A
growing literature examines the implications of online
surveys for data quality, most commonly by comparing
demographic and political characteristics of different
samples. In this paper, we explore the possibility that
personality may differentially influence the likelihood of
participation in online and face-to-face surveys. We argue
that individuals high in extraversion and openness to
experience may be underrepresented, and those low in these
traits overrepresented, in professionalized online panels
given the solitary nature of repeated survey-taking. Since
openness to experience in particular is associated with
liberal policy positions, differences in this trait may bias
estimates of public opinion derived from professionalized
online panels. Using data from the 2012 and 2016 dual-mode
American National Election Studies, we compare political
preferences and personality traits across parallel
face-to-face and online samples. Respondents in the online
samples were, on average, less open to experience and more
politically conservative on a variety of issues compared to
their face-to-face counterparts. This was true especially in
2012, when online respondents were drawn from a large panel
of experienced respondents. We also find openness to be
negatively related to the number of surveys completed by
these respondents. These results suggest that reliance on
professionalized survey respondents, who comprise the vast
majority of online survey samples, can bias estimates of
many quantities of interest.},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfaa026},
Key = {fds370098}
}
@article{fds370099,
Author = {Ohayon, MM and Paskow, M and Roach, A and Filer, C and Hillygus, DS and Chen, MC and Langer, G and Hirshkowitz, M and National Sleep
Foundation Sleep Satisfaction Consensus Panel},
Title = {The National Sleep Foundation's Sleep Satisfaction
Tool.},
Journal = {Sleep health},
Volume = {5},
Number = {1},
Pages = {5-11},
Year = {2019},
Month = {February},
Abstract = {<h4>Objectives</h4>The National Sleep Foundation (NSF)
sought to test, refine, and add statistical rigor to its
previously described provisional Sleep Satisfaction Tool
(SST). The tool assesses the general population's sleep
satisfaction.<h4>Design</h4>In 2017, NSF created a
provisional tool through systematic literature review and an
expert consensus panel process. This tool was expanded,
refined, and tested through an open-ended survey, 2 rounds
of cognitive testing, and a national survey of a random
sample of Internet users (aged 18-90). Factor analysis and
final consensus panel voting produced the robust
SST.<h4>Results</h4>The exploratory, open-ended surveying
for identifying additional factors important to the public
led to question formulation around mind relaxation.
Cognitive testing yielded significant refinement to question
and response option formatting. Factor analysis of questions
from field testing indicated loading on one construct
identified as "sleep satisfaction." The final 9-item SST
demonstrated strong reliability and internal validity with
overall SST scores of 56/100 (higher scores indicating
greater sleep satisfaction). Individual SST item mean scores
ranged from 39 to 66, and overall SST scores varied
substantially across demographic groups.<h4>Conclusions</h4>NSF
used a series of development and validation tests on its
provisional SST, producing a novel and reliable research
tool that measures the general population's sleep
satisfaction. The SST is a short, reliable, nonclinical
assessment that expands the set of tools available to
researchers that implements the individual, social, and
environmental factors related to sleep satisfaction. Further
research will explore refined scoring methods along with
factor weighting and use within different
populations.},
Doi = {10.1016/j.sleh.2018.10.003},
Key = {fds370099}
}
@article{fds348509,
Author = {Dounoucos, VA and Hillygus, DS and Carlson, C},
Title = {The message and the medium: an experimental evaluation of
the effects of Twitter commentary on campaign
messages},
Journal = {Journal of Information Technology and Politics},
Volume = {16},
Number = {1},
Pages = {66-76},
Year = {2019},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {Social media are an increasingly important communication
tool in political campaigns, yet there is much to learn
about how communication effects might differ for these
platforms. In contrast to traditional media outlets,
messengers often do not fully control their message on
social media; rather, the audience often receive the
candidate message along with comments and reactions,
commonly uncivil ones. Using a survey experiment, we examine
the persuasion implications of audience comments on
candidate tweets. We find that commentary on tweets becomes
part of the communicated message, with mostly positive
comments offering a slight persuasive boost, and mostly
negative comments offering a larger negative
effect.},
Doi = {10.1080/19331681.2019.1572566},
Key = {fds348509}
}
@article{fds348513,
Author = {Atkeson, L and Crespo-Tenorio, A and Gill, J and Hillygus, DS and Hopkins, DJ and Pang, X and Sinclair, B},
Title = {Comments on Single-Blind Reviewing from the Editorial
Staff},
Journal = {Political Analysis},
Volume = {26},
Number = {03},
Pages = {255-257},
Year = {2018},
Month = {July},
Key = {fds348513}
}
@article{fds348512,
Author = {Atkeson, L and Crespo-Tenorio, A and Gill, J and Hillygus, DS and Hopkins, DJ and Pang, X and Sinclair, B},
Title = {Comments on Single-Blind Reviewing from the Editorial
Staff},
Journal = {Political Analysis},
Volume = {26},
Number = {3},
Pages = {255-257},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},
Year = {2018},
Month = {July},
Doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.34},
Key = {fds348512}
}
@article{fds348511,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Navigating scholarly exchange in today’s media
environment},
Journal = {Journal of Politics},
Volume = {80},
Number = {3},
Pages = {1064-1068},
Year = {2018},
Month = {July},
Abstract = {Growing concerns about the reliability and validity of
published empirical research has helped to fuel an
increasing number of scholarly exchanges about research
replications and reproductions, which often play out in
social media, anonymous blog posts, and the media. I argue
that we undermine our collective efforts to promote
transparent and rigorous scientific practice if we fail to
pay attention to language and communication-in our exchanges
with both the media and each other.},
Doi = {10.1086/696615},
Key = {fds348511}
}
@article{fds348514,
Author = {Lopez, J and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Why So Serious?: Survey Trolls and Misinformation},
Year = {2018},
Month = {March},
Key = {fds348514}
}
@article{fds348517,
Author = {Knutson, KL and Phelan, J and Paskow, MJ and Roach, A and Whiton, K and Langer, G and Hillygus, DS and Mokrzycki, M and Broughton, WA and Chokroverty, S and Lichstein, KL and Weaver, TE and Hirshkowitz,
M},
Title = {The National Sleep Foundation's Sleep Health
Index.},
Journal = {Sleep health},
Volume = {3},
Number = {4},
Pages = {234-240},
Year = {2017},
Month = {August},
Abstract = {<h4>Objectives</h4>A validated survey instrument to assess
general sleep health would be a useful research tool,
particularly when objective measures of sleep are not
feasible. Thus, the National Sleep Foundation spearheaded
the development of the Sleep Health Index
(SHI).<h4>Design</h4>The development of the SHI began with a
task force of experts who identified key sleep domains and
questions. An initial draft of the survey was created and
questions were refined using cognitive testing and
pretesting. The resulting 28-question survey was
administered via random-sample telephone interviews to
nationally representative samples of adults in 2014 (n=1253)
and 2015 (n=1250). These data were combined to create the
index. A factor analysis linked 14 questions to 3 discrete
domains: sleep quality, sleep duration, and disordered
sleep. These were assembled as sub-indices, then combined to
form the overall SHI, with scores ranging from 0 to 100
(higher score reflects better sleep health).<h4>Results</h4>Americans
earned an overall SHI score of 76/100, with sub-index scores
of 81/100 in disordered sleep, 79/100 in sleep duration, and
68/100 in sleep quality. In regression analyses, the
strongest independent predictors of sleep health were
self-reported stress (β=-0.26) and overall health
(β=0.26), which were also the strongest predictors of sleep
quality (β=-0.32 and β=0.27 respectively).<h4>Conclusions</h4>The
current 12-item SHI is a valid, reliable research tool that
robustly measures 3 separate but related elements of sleep
health-duration, quality, and disorders-and assesses the
sleep health status of adults in the United
States.},
Doi = {10.1016/j.sleh.2017.05.011},
Key = {fds348517}
}
@article{fds348518,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and McKee, SC and Young, M},
Title = {Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune: The
Political Behavior of White Migrants to the
South},
Journal = {Presidential Studies Quarterly},
Volume = {47},
Number = {2},
Pages = {354-364},
Publisher = {Wiley},
Year = {2017},
Month = {June},
Abstract = {<jats:p>What are the political implications of domestic
migration to the American South? Using the American National
Election Studies, we track the changing dynamic of party
identification and presidential voting among white southern
in‐migrants and natives. Although it was once thought
southern in‐migration from the rest of the country
contributed to Republican ascendancy in the region, we find
that is no longer true. In the 1970s and 1980s, white
migrants to the South were more Republican than natives.
Today, white southern in‐migrants are more likely to
affiliate with the Democratic Party and vote Democratic,
suggesting population change could ultimately shift the
partisan balance in the region.</jats:p>},
Doi = {10.1111/psq.12372},
Key = {fds348518}
}
@article{fds348519,
Author = {Holbein, JB and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Erratum to: Making Young Voters: The Impact of
Preregistration on Youth Turnout: MAKING YOUNG VOTERS
(American Journal of Political Science, (2016), 60, 2,
(364-382), 10.1111/ajps.12177)},
Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
Volume = {61},
Number = {2},
Pages = {505-507},
Year = {2017},
Month = {April},
Abstract = {The purpose of this erratum is to address an error in Making
Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth
Turnout. The error affects the size of the coefficient
estimate on preregistration laws in the difference-in-difference
model reported in Table 2 (column 1). Updating the
difference-in-difference model estimate finds a smaller, but
still positive effect of preregistration laws on youth
turnout. Taken together with the results from other model
specifications, data sources, and analytic approaches, the
conclusion of the article remains the same: preregistration
appears to be a viable electoral policy for increasing youth
turnout. The error in the difference-in-difference model
comes from including state fixed effects, year fixed
effects, and state*year fixed effects. Because our treatment
variable—preregistration availability in the state and
year—is defined by state and year, we should not include
the interactions in the model. Stata version 11.2 (using
code posted on the AJPS Dataverse) estimated the model by
dropping the fixed effect on Delaware in 2012, resulting in
a misinterpretation of the treatment variable. We are
grateful to Ryan Enos, James Snyder, and the Harvard
American Politics Summer Reading Group for alerting us to
this error (email dated August 10, 2016) and to Anthony
Fowler for following up with additional information (email
dated November 22, 2016).},
Doi = {10.1111/ajps.12293},
Key = {fds348519}
}
@article{fds348520,
Author = {DeYoreo, M and Reiter, JP and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Bayesian mixture models with focused clustering for mixed
ordinal and nominal data},
Journal = {Bayesian Analysis},
Volume = {12},
Number = {3},
Pages = {679-703},
Year = {2017},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {In some contexts, mixture models can fit certain variables
well at the expense of others in ways beyond the analyst's
control. For example, when the data include some variables
with non-trivial amounts of missing values, the mixture
model may fit the marginal distributions of the nearly and
fully complete variables at the expense of the variables
with high fractions of missing data. Motivated by this
setting, we present a mixture model for mixed ordinal and
nominal data that splits variables into two groups, focus
variables and remainder variables. The model allows the
analyst to specify a rich sub-model for the focus variables
and a simpler sub-model for remainder variables, yet still
capture associations among the variables. Using simulations,
we illustrate advantages and limitations of focused
clustering compared to mixture models that do not
distinguish variables. We apply the model to handle missing
values in an analysis of the 2012 American National Election
Study, estimating relationships among voting behavior,
ideology, and political party affiliation.},
Doi = {10.1214/16-BA1020},
Key = {fds348520}
}
@article{fds348521,
Author = {Ballard, AO and Hillygus, DS and Konitzer, T},
Title = {Campaigning Online: Web Display Ads in the 2012 Presidential
Campaign},
Journal = {PS - Political Science and Politics},
Volume = {49},
Number = {3},
Pages = {414-419},
Year = {2016},
Month = {July},
Abstract = {Although much of what we know about political advertising
comes from the study of television advertising alone, online
advertising is an increasingly prominent part of political
campaigning. Research on other online political
communication - especially candidate websites, blogs, and
social media - tends to conclude that these communications
are aimed primarily at turning existing supporters into
campaign donors, activists, and volunteers. Is a similar
communication strategy found in online display ads - those
ads placed adjacent to website content? In one of the first
systematic analyses of the nature, content, and targets of
online display advertising, we examined 840 unique online
display ads from the 2012 presidential campaign. We show
that the policy content, ad location, and interactive
elements of the ads varied based on the audience, with
persuasive appeals aimed at undecided or persuadable voters
and engagement appeals aimed at existing supporters.
Comparing ad content across candidates also found that each
side focused on those issues for which the candidate had a
strategic advantage. As a consequence, and in contrast to
the conclusions of previous research that examines
television advertising, we found minimal issue engagement in
online advertising.},
Doi = {10.1017/S1049096516000780},
Key = {fds348521}
}
@article{fds370100,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Holbein, JB and Snell, S},
Title = {The Nitty Gritty: The Unexplored Role of Grit and
Perseverance in Voter Turnout},
Year = {2016},
Month = {June},
Key = {fds370100}
}
@article{fds249861,
Author = {Holbein, JB and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth
Turnout},
Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
Volume = {60},
Number = {2},
Pages = {364-382},
Publisher = {WILEY},
Year = {2016},
Month = {March},
ISSN = {0092-5853},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10161/10420 Duke open access
repository},
Abstract = {Recent research has cast doubt on the potential for various
electoral reforms to increase voter turnout. In this
article, we examine the effectiveness of preregistration
laws, which allow young citizens to register before being
eligible to vote. We use two empirical approaches to
evaluate the impact of preregistration on youth turnout.
First, we implement difference-in-difference and lag models
to bracket the causal effect of preregistration
implementation using the 2000-2012 Current Population
Survey. Second, focusing on the state of Florida, we
leverage a discontinuity based on date of birth to estimate
the effect of increased preregistration exposure on the
turnout of young registrants. In both approaches, we find
preregistration increases voter turnout, with equal
effectiveness for various subgroups in the electorate. More
broadly, observed patterns suggest that campaign context and
supporting institutions may help to determine when and if
electoral reforms are effective.},
Doi = {10.1111/ajps.12177},
Key = {fds249861}
}
@article{fds348522,
Author = {Si, Y and Reiter, JP and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Bayesian latent pattern mixture models for handling
attrition in panel studies with refreshment
samples},
Journal = {Annals of Applied Statistics},
Volume = {10},
Number = {1},
Pages = {118-143},
Year = {2016},
Month = {March},
Abstract = {Many panel studies collect refreshment samples—new,
randomly sampled respondents who complete the questionnaire
at the same time as a subsequent wave of the panel. With
appropriate modeling, these samples can be leveraged to
correct inferences for biases caused by nonignorable
attrition. We present such a model when the panel includes
many categorical survey variables. The model relies on a
Bayesian latent pattern mixture model, in which an indicator
for attrition and the survey variables are modeled jointly
via a latent class model.We allow the multinomial
probabilities within classes to depend on the attrition
indicator, which offers additional flexibility over standard
applications of latent class models. We present results of
simulation studies that illustrate the benefits of this
flexibility. We apply the model to correct attrition bias in
an analysis of data from the 2007–2008 Associated
Press/Yahoo News election panel study.},
Doi = {10.1214/15-AOAS876},
Key = {fds348522}
}
@article{fds348523,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Junn, J},
Title = {Norman H. Nie In Memoriam},
Journal = {PS-POLITICAL SCIENCE & POLITICS},
Volume = {49},
Number = {1},
Pages = {148-149},
Publisher = {CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS},
Year = {2016},
Month = {January},
Key = {fds348523}
}
@article{fds348524,
Author = {Henderson, M and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Changing the clock},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {80},
Number = {3},
Pages = {761-770},
Year = {2016},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {Time of vote decision research has shaped our understanding
of the nature and influence of campaigns. Traditionally,
time of decision has been viewed primarily as a reflection
of individual-level characteristics, especially political
interest or attentiveness. We use eight waves of panel
survey data to evaluate how campaign context interacts with
attentiveness to affect time of decision in the 2008 US
presidential election. Our data show that less politically
interested respondents living in locations where campaigning
was most intense made up their minds earlier than those
living elsewhere, but there is no such difference among the
most interested. Rather than time of decision simply
constraining campaign effects, these results suggest that
campaigns structure the time of decision.},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfw027},
Key = {fds348524}
}
@article{fds348525,
Author = {Gerber, AS and Arceneaux, K and Boudreau, C and Dowling, C and Hillygus,
DS},
Title = {Reporting Balance Tables, Response Rates and Manipulation
Checks in Experimental Research: A Reply from the Committee
that Prepared the Reporting Guidelines},
Journal = {Journal of Experimental Political Science},
Volume = {2},
Number = {02},
Pages = {216-229},
Year = {2015},
Month = {December},
Key = {fds348525}
}
@article{fds348527,
Author = {Schifeling, TA and Cheng, C and Reiter, JP and Hillygus,
DS},
Title = {Accounting for nonignorable unit nonresponse and attrition
in panel studies with refreshment samples},
Journal = {Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology},
Volume = {3},
Number = {3},
Pages = {265-295},
Year = {2015},
Month = {September},
Abstract = {Panel surveys typically suffer from attrition, which can
lead to biased inference when basing analysis only on cases
that complete all waves of the panel. Unfortunately, the
panel data alone cannot inform the extent of the bias due to
attrition, so analysts must make strong and untestable
assumptions about the missing data mechanism. Many panel
studies also include refreshment samples, which are data
collected from a random sample of new individuals during
some later wave of the panel. Refreshment samples offer
information that can be utilized to correct for biases
induced by nonignorable attrition while reducing reliance on
strong assumptions about the attrition process. To date,
these bias correction methods have not dealt with two key
practical issues in panel studies: unit nonresponse in the
initial wave of the panel and in the refreshment sample
itself. As we illustrate, nonignorable unit nonresponse can
significantly compromise the analyst's ability to use the
refreshment samples for attrition bias correction. Thus, it
is crucial for analysts to assess how sensitive their
inferences-corrected for panel attrition-are to different
assumptions about the nature of the unit nonresponse. We
present an approach that facilitates such sensitivity
analyses for suspected nonignorable unit nonresponse both in
the initial wave and in the refreshment sample. We
illustrate the approach using simulation studies and an
analysis of data from the 2007-2008 Associated Press/Yahoo
News election panel study.},
Doi = {10.1093/jssam/smv007},
Key = {fds348527}
}
@article{fds249859,
Author = {Si, Y and Reiter, JP and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Semi-parametric selection models for potentially
non-ignorable attrition in panel studies with refreshment
samples},
Journal = {Political Analysis},
Volume = {23},
Number = {1},
Pages = {92-112},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},
Year = {2015},
Month = {January},
ISSN = {1047-1987},
Abstract = {Panel studies typically suffer from attrition. Ignoring the
attrition can result in biased inferences if the missing
data are systematically related to outcomes of interest.
Unfortunately, panel data alone cannot inform the extent of
bias due to attrition. Many panel studies also include
refreshment samples, which are data collected from a random
sample of new individuals during the later waves of the
panel. Refreshment samples offer information that can be
utilized to correct for biases induced by non-ignorable
attrition while reducing reliance on strong assumptions
about the attrition process. We present a Bayesian approach
to handle attrition in two-wave panels with one refreshment
sample and many categorical survey variables. The approach
includes (1) an additive non-ignorable selection model for
the attrition process; and (2) a Dirichlet process mixture
of multinomial distributions for the categorical survey
variables. We present Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms
for sampling from the posterior distribution of model
parameters and missing data. We apply the model to correct
attrition bias in an analysis of data from the 2007-08
Associated Press/Yahoo News election panel
study.},
Doi = {10.1093/pan/mpu009},
Key = {fds249859}
}
@article{fds348528,
Author = {Gerber, AS and Arceneaux, K and Boudreau, C and Dowling, C and Hillygus,
DS},
Title = {Reporting Balance Tables, Response Rates and Manipulation
Checks in Experimental Research: A Reply from the Committee
that Prepared the Reporting Guidelines},
Journal = {Journal of Experimental Political Science},
Volume = {2},
Number = {2},
Pages = {216-229},
Year = {2015},
Month = {January},
Doi = {10.1017/XPS.2015.20},
Key = {fds348528}
}
@article{fds249865,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Treul, SA},
Title = {Assessing strategic voting in the 2008 US presidential
primaries: the role of electoral context, institutional
rules, and negative votes},
Journal = {Public Choice},
Volume = {161},
Number = {3-4},
Pages = {517-536},
Publisher = {Springer Nature},
Year = {2014},
Month = {December},
ISSN = {0048-5829},
Abstract = {We examine the nature and extent of strategic voting in the
2008 US presidential primary. In doing so, we distinguish
positive strategic voters—those casting ballots for their
second choice in the primary and general election—from
negative strategic voters—those casting ballots for a
candidate they want to lose in the general election. We find
evidence of both types in 2008. Moreover, we show that the
likelihood of voting strategically is related to the
electoral and institutional context. Specifically, those who
prefer trailing candidates and who live in states with open
primaries or with elections after John McCain became the
presumed nominee were more likely to vote
strategically.},
Doi = {10.1007/s11127-014-0183-1},
Key = {fds249865}
}
@article{fds249863,
Author = {Aldrich, JH and Bishop, BH and Hatch, RS and Hillygus, SD and Rohde,
DW},
Title = {Blame, Responsibility, and the Tea Party in the 2010 Midterm
Elections},
Journal = {Political Behavior},
Volume = {36},
Number = {3},
Pages = {471-491},
Publisher = {Springer Nature},
Year = {2014},
Month = {September},
ISSN = {0190-9320},
Doi = {10.1007/s11109-013-9242-4},
Key = {fds249863}
}
@article{fds348531,
Author = {Gerber, A and Arceneaux, K and Boudreau, C and Dowling, C and Hillygus,
S and Palfrey, T and Biggers, DR and Hendry, DJ},
Title = {Reporting Guidelines for Experimental Research: A Report
from the Experimental Research Section Standards
Committee},
Journal = {Journal of Experimental Political Science},
Volume = {1},
Number = {01},
Pages = {81-98},
Year = {2014},
Month = {March},
Key = {fds348531}
}
@article{fds249864,
Author = {Frankel, LL and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Looking beyond demographics: Panel attrition in the ANES and
GSS},
Journal = {Political Analysis},
Volume = {22},
Number = {3},
Pages = {336-353},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},
Year = {2014},
Month = {January},
ISSN = {1047-1987},
Abstract = {Longitudinal or panel surveys offer unique benefits for
social science research, but they typically suffer from
attrition, which reduces sample size and can result in
biased inferences. Previous research tends to focus on the
demographic predictors of attrition, conceptualizing
attrition propensity as a stable, individual-level
characteristic-some individuals (e.g., young, poor,
residentially mobile) are more likely to drop out of a study
than others. We argue that panel attrition reflects both the
characteristics of the individual respondent as well as her
survey experience, a factor shaped by the design and
implementation features of the study. In this article, we
examine and compare the predictors of panel attrition in the
2008-2009 American National Election Study, an online panel,
and the 2006-2010 General Social Survey, a face-to-face
panel. In both cases, survey experience variables are
predictive of panel attrition above and beyond the standard
demographic predictors, but the particular measures of
relevance differ across the two surveys. The findings inform
statistical corrections for panel attrition bias and provide
study design insights for future panel data collections. ©
The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on
behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. All rights
reserved.},
Doi = {10.1093/pan/mpt020},
Key = {fds249864}
}
@article{fds249860,
Author = {Johnston, CD and Hillygus, DS and Bartels, BL},
Title = {Ideology, the Affordable Care Act Ruling, and Supreme Court
Legitimacy},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {78},
Number = {4},
Pages = {963-973},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2014},
ISSN = {0033-362X},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfu036},
Key = {fds249860}
}
@article{fds303776,
Author = {Deng, Y and Hillygus, DS and Reiter, JP and Si, Y and Zheng,
S},
Title = {Handling attrition in longitudinal studies: The case for
refreshment samples},
Journal = {Statistical Science},
Volume = {28},
Number = {2},
Pages = {238-256},
Publisher = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
Year = {2013},
Month = {May},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.2791v1},
Abstract = {Panel studies typically suffer from attrition, which reduces
sample size and can result in biased inferences. It is
impossible to know whether or not the attrition causes bias
from the observed panel data alone. Refreshment samples-new,
randomly sampled respondents given the questionnaire at the
same time as a subsequent wave of the panel-offer
information that can be used to diagnose and adjust for bias
due to attrition. We review and bolster the case for the use
of refreshment samples in panel studies. We include examples
of both a fully Bayesian approach for analyzing the
concatenated panel and refreshment data, and a multiple
imputation approach for analyzing only the original panel.
For the latter, we document a positive bias in the usual
multiple imputation variance estimator. We present models
appropriate for three waves and two refreshment samples,
including nonterminal attrition. We illustrate the
three-wave analysis using the 2007-2008 Associated
Press-Yahoo! News Election Poll. © Institute of
Mathematical Statistics, 2013.},
Doi = {10.1214/13-STS414},
Key = {fds303776}
}
@article{fds249873,
Author = {Frankel, L and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Panel Attrition and the Survey Experience},
Journal = {Political Analysis},
Year = {2013},
Key = {fds249873}
}
@article{fds249881,
Author = {Henderson, M and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The dynamics of health care opinion, 2008-2010:
partisanship, self-interest, and racial resentment.},
Journal = {Journal of health politics, policy and law},
Volume = {36},
Number = {6},
Pages = {945-960},
Year = {2011},
Month = {December},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22232419},
Abstract = {Recent debate over the Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act highlights the extent of party polarization in
Washington. While the partisan divide on this issue is stark
among political elites, it is less clear how the mass
electorate has responded to this divisive conflict. In this
article we examine individual-level dynamics in health care
attitudes between 2008 and 2010. We find partisan
attachments and self-interests strongly predict change in
health care attitudes, with Republicans growing more opposed
to universal health insurance between 2008 and 2010, and
those personally worried about medical expenses less likely
to abandon support. We find, however, that the effect of
partisanship is moderated by self-interest, with strong
Republicans significantly less likely to switch to
opposition if they were personally worried about medical
expenses. Finally, we find that health care policy
preferences, already tinged with racial attitudes in 2008,
became increasingly so by 2010.},
Doi = {10.1215/03616878-1460533},
Key = {fds249881}
}
@article{fds249883,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The evolution of election polling in the United
States},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {75},
Number = {5 SPEC. ISSUE},
Pages = {962-981},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2011},
Month = {December},
ISSN = {0033-362X},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000298192700011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {Public opinion polls have long played an important role in
the study and conduct of elections. In this essay, I outline
the evolution of polling as used for three different
functions in U.S. presidential elections: forecasting
election outcomes, understanding voter behavior, and
planning campaign strategy. Since the introduction of
scientific polling in the 1936 election, technology has
altered the way polls are used by the media, public,
candidates, and scholars. Today, polls and surveys remain
vital to electoral behavior and our understanding of it, but
they are being increasingly supplemented or replaced by
alternate measures and methods. © The Author
2011.},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfr054},
Key = {fds249883}
}
@article{fds249884,
Author = {Henderson, M and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The Dynamics of Health Care Opinion, 2008-2010},
Journal = {Journal of Health Politics, Policy, and Law},
Year = {2011},
Key = {fds249884}
}
@article{fds249878,
Author = {Elis, R and Hillygus, DS and Nie, N},
Title = {The dynamics of candidate evaluations and vote choice in
2008: Looking to the past or future?},
Journal = {Electoral Studies},
Volume = {29},
Number = {4},
Pages = {582-593},
Publisher = {Elsevier BV},
Year = {2010},
Month = {December},
ISSN = {0261-3794},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000286294600005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to
examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter
evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the
2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of
these political figures on vote choice evolves through the
campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush
declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of
the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day.
In evaluating the relative effects of these political
figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during
the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the
candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our
results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in
which retrospective evaluations of the previous
administration might provide a starting point for assessing
the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on
information learned during the campaign helps voters to
update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the
" Palin effect," based on individual-level changes in
favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and
conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just
under 2% of the final vote share. © 2010 Elsevier
Ltd.},
Doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2010.04.005},
Key = {fds249878}
}
@article{fds249875,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Henderson, M},
Title = {Political issues and the Dynamics of vote choice in
2008},
Journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and
Parties},
Volume = {20},
Number = {2},
Pages = {241-269},
Publisher = {Informa UK Limited},
Year = {2010},
Month = {May},
ISSN = {1745-7289},
Abstract = {The 2008 American presidential contest occurred amidst
economic conditions unlike any seen in decades. Media
assessments have often attributed Barack Obama's victory to
the faltering economy, particularly the financial crisis
that erupted just seven weeks before election day. In this
article we assess the role of the economy and other
political issues on vote choice, and find that the impact of
the economic crisis is more nuanced than is often assumed.
We find that while the economy did matter for the general
election, so too did social issues. More interestingly, the
collapse itself seemed to have only a minor impact because
so many people had already made up their minds before the
collapse. Finally, we show that while Obama benefited from
the economy in the general election, it may have actually
worked against him in the primary phase of the contest. ©
2010 Elections, Public Opinion & Parties.},
Doi = {10.1080/17457281003697263},
Key = {fds249875}
}
@article{fds249882,
Author = {Henderson, M and Hillygus, DS and Tompson, T},
Title = {"Sour grapes" or rational voting? Voter decision making
among thwarted primary voters in 2008},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {74},
Number = {3},
Pages = {499-529},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2010},
Month = {March},
ISSN = {0033-362X},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000281386100005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {During the 2008 presidential campaign, journalists and
pundits debated the electoral consequences of the prolonged
and hard-fought nomination contest between Hillary Clinton
and Barack Obama. Previous research, typically using
aggregate vote returns, has concluded that divisive
primaries negatively impact the electoral prospects of the
winning candidate. It is thought that supporters of the
losing candidate are less likely to vote and more likely to
defect because of psychological disaffection, or "sour
grapes." Using a new panel dataset that traces individual
candidate preferences during the primary and general
election campaigns, we are able to explicitly examine
individual-level decision making in the general election
conditioned on voting behavior in the primary. Although
"sour grapes" had a modest effect on eventual support for
the party nominee, fundamental political considerations -
especially attitudes on the War in Iraq - were far better
predictors of the vote decision among thwarted voters.
Moreover, we find that supporters of losing Democratic
candidates were far more likely to vote for Obama if they
lived in a battleground state. © The Author 2010. Published
by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American
Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights
reserved.},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfq008},
Key = {fds249882}
}
@article{fds249885,
Author = {Ellis, R and Hillygus, DS and Nie, N},
Title = {Retrospective or Prospective Voting in 2008},
Journal = {Electoral Studies},
Year = {2010},
Key = {fds249885}
}
@article{fds249886,
Author = {Henderson, M and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Policy Issues and the Dynamics of Vote Choice in the 2008
Presidential Election},
Journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and
Parties},
Year = {2010},
Key = {fds249886}
}
@article{fds249888,
Author = {Treier, S and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The nature of political ideology in the contemporary
electorate},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {73},
Number = {4},
Pages = {679-703},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2009},
Month = {December},
ISSN = {0033-362X},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000272689000003&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {Given the increasingly polarized nature of American
politics, renewed attention has been focused on the
ideological nature of the mass public. Using Bayesian Item
Response Theory (IRT), we examine the contemporary contours
of policy attitudes as they relate to ideological identity
and we consider the implications for the way scholars
conceptualize, measure, and use political ideology in
empirical research. Although political rhetoric today is
clearly organized by a single ideological dimension, we find
that the belief systems of the mass public remain
multidimensional, with many in the electorate holding
liberal preferences on one dimension and conservative
preferences on another. These cross-pressured individuals
tend to self-identify as moderate (or say "Don't Know") in
response to the standard liberal-conservative scale, thereby
jeopardizing the validity of this commonly used measure. Our
analysis further shows that failing to account for the
multidimensional nature of ideological preferences can
produce inaccurate predictions about the voting behavior of
the American public.},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfp067},
Key = {fds249888}
}
@article{fds366577,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Understanding the 2008 Presidential Election:
Introduction},
Journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
Volume = {73},
Number = {5},
Pages = {841-844},
Year = {2009},
Month = {December},
Doi = {10.1093/poq/nfp084},
Key = {fds366577}
}
@article{fds249887,
Author = {Burden, B and Hillygus, DS},
Title = {Opinion Formation, Polarization, and Presidential
Reelection},
Journal = {Presidential Studies Quarterly},
Year = {2009},
Key = {fds249887}
}
@article{fds249876,
Author = {HILLYGUS, DS},
Title = {The Dynamics of Voter Decision Making Among Minor-Party
Supporters: The 2000 Presidential Election in the United
States},
Journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
Volume = {37},
Number = {2},
Pages = {225-244},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},
Year = {2007},
Month = {April},
ISSN = {0007-1234},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000246333800002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {<jats:p>Minor party candidates are quite common in modern
democratic elections, but we know relatively little about
the decision-making process of minor-party supporters. An
extensive panel dataset is used to examine the
individual-level dynamics of Nader support in the United
States during the 2000 presidential election campaign. A
multinomial logit model is estimated to analyse the factors
related to a Nader supporter's decision to switch support to
Gore, to switch support to Bush or to remain loyal to Nader
from one interview to the next. The Nader supporters most
likely to switch to a major-party candidate were the most
politically aware, partisans, those concerned about policy
outcomes and respondents in competitive states. Nader
supporters were also more likely to abandon the candidate at
the ballot box rather than earlier in the campaign. These
findings challenge existing expectations about campaign
dynamics and appear to reflect strategic calculations on the
part of Nader supporters.</jats:p>},
Doi = {10.1017/s0007123407000117},
Key = {fds249876}
}
@article{fds249879,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Shields, TG},
Title = {Moral issues and voter decision making in the 2004
presidential election},
Journal = {PS - Political Science and Politics},
Volume = {38},
Number = {2},
Pages = {201-209},
Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)},
Year = {2005},
Month = {April},
ISSN = {1049-0965},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000228569100005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Doi = {10.1017/S1049096505056301},
Key = {fds249879}
}
@article{fds249877,
Author = {Hillygus, DS},
Title = {The missing link: Exploring the relationship between higher
education and political engagement},
Journal = {Political Behavior},
Volume = {27},
Number = {1},
Pages = {25-47},
Publisher = {Springer Nature},
Year = {2005},
Month = {March},
ISSN = {0190-9320},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000228199300002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {Empirical political behavior research has consistently
observed a robust and positive relationship between
education and political engagement, but has failed to
adequately explain why education is so important. Using data
from the Baccalaureate and Beyond (B&B) Longitudinal Study,
I test three competing hypotheses explaining the enduring
link between higher education and political behavior. I find
that a verbal SAT scores and a social science curriculum are
related to future political engagement, suggesting that the
content of higher education, especially a curriculum that
develops language and civic skills, is influential in
shaping participation in American democracy. © 2005
Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.},
Doi = {10.1007/s11109-005-3075-8},
Key = {fds249877}
}
@article{fds249880,
Author = {Hillygus, DS and Jackman, S},
Title = {Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects,
Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy},
Journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
Volume = {47},
Number = {4},
Pages = {583-596},
Publisher = {WILEY},
Year = {2003},
Month = {October},
ISSN = {0092-5853},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000185580600002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {How do citizens respond to campaign events? We explore this
question with a unique repeated measures survey design,
fielded during the 2000 presidential campaign. We model
transitions in support for the major party candidates
following the party conventions and presidential debates. In
the aggregate, Gore support increases following the
conventions (but not the debates), while Bush support
increases with the debates (but not the conventions). But
there is considerable microlevel variation in the data:
responsiveness to campaign events is greatest among
Independents, undecided voters, and "mismatched partisans,"
but exactly how these groups respond differs for each event.
Moreover, attitudes toward then President Clinton mediate
the effect of the campaign events on voter preferences. Two
primary conclusions follow: (1) rich data sets are required
to observe the effects of campaign events; (2) the influence
of campaign events on vote choice is conditional on previous
preferences, partisan dispositions, and political
context.},
Doi = {10.1111/1540-5907.00041},
Key = {fds249880}
}
%% Other
@misc{fds370097,
Author = {Spell, GP and Hillygus, DS and Guay, B and Carin,
L},
Title = {An embedding model for estimating legislative preferences
from the frequency and sentiment of tweets},
Journal = {EMNLP 2020 - 2020 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural
Language Processing, Proceedings of the Conference},
Pages = {627-641},
Year = {2020},
Month = {January},
ISBN = {9781952148606},
Abstract = {Legislator preferences are typically represented as measures
of general ideology estimated from roll call votes on
legislation, potentially masking important nuances in
legislators' political attitudes. In this paper we introduce
a method of measuring more specific legislator attitudes
using an alternative expression of preferences: tweeting.
Specifically, we present an embedding-based model for
predicting the frequency and sentiment of legislator tweets.
To illustrate our method, we model legislators' attitudes
towards President Donald Trump as vector embeddings that
interact with embeddings for Trump himself constructed using
a neural network from the text of his daily tweets. We
demonstrate the predictive performance of our model on
tweets authored by members of the U.S. House and Senate
related to the president from November 2016 to February
2018. We further assess the quality of our learned
representations for legislators by comparing to traditional
measures of legislator preferences.},
Key = {fds370097}
}
@misc{fds348516,
Author = {Xing, Z and Hillygus, S and Carin, L},
Title = {Evaluating U.S. Electoral representation with a joint
statistical model of congressional roll-calls, legislative
text, and voter registration data},
Journal = {Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD International Conference on
Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining},
Volume = {Part F129685},
Pages = {1205-1214},
Year = {2017},
Month = {August},
ISBN = {9781450348874},
Abstract = {Extensive information on 3 million randomly sampled United
States citizens is used to construct a statistical model of
constituent preferences for each U.S. congressional
district. This model is linked to the legislative voting
record of the legislator from each district, yielding an
integrated model for constituency data, legislative
roll-call votes, and the text of the legislation. The model
is used to examine the extent to which legislators' voting
records are aligned with constituent preferences, and the
implications of that alignment (or lack thereof) on
subsequent election outcomes. The analysis is based on a
Bayesian formalism, with fast inference via a stochastic
variational Bayesian analysis.},
Doi = {10.1145/3097983.3098151},
Key = {fds348516}
}