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| Publications of James W. Roberts :chronological alphabetical combined listing:%% Journal Articles @article{fds343588, Author = {Garrett, D and Ordin, A and Roberts, JW and Suárez Serrato, JC}, Title = {Tax Advantages and Imperfect Competition in Auctions for Municipal Bonds}, Journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, Volume = {90}, Number = {2}, Pages = {815-851}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2023}, Month = {March}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac035}, Abstract = {<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>We study the interaction between tax advantages for municipal bonds and the market structure of auctions for these bonds. We show that this interaction can limit a bidder’s ability to extract information rents and is a crucial determinant of state and local governments’ borrowing costs. Reduced-form estimates show that increasing the tax advantage by 3 pp lowers mean borrowing costs by 9–10$\%$. We estimate a structural auction model to measure markups and to illustrate and quantify how the interaction between tax policy and bidder strategic behaviour determines the impact of tax advantages on municipal borrowing costs. We use the estimated model to evaluate the efficiency of Obama and Trump administration policies that limit the tax advantage for municipal bonds. Because reductions in the tax advantage inflate bidder markups and depress competition, the resulting increase in municipal borrowing costs more than offsets the tax savings to the government. Finally, we use the model to analyse a recent non-tax regulation that affects entry into municipal bond auctions.</jats:p>}, Doi = {10.1093/restud/rdac035}, Key = {fds343588} } @article{fds368297, Author = {Eliason, PJ and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Physicians as Owners and Agents-A Call for Further Study.}, Journal = {Jama Internal Medicine}, Volume = {182}, Number = {12}, Pages = {1276-1277}, Year = {2022}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.5025}, Doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.5025}, Key = {fds368297} } @article{fds367602, Author = {League, RJ and Eliason, P and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW and Wong, H}, Title = {Assessment of Spending for Patients Initiating Dialysis Care.}, Journal = {Jama Network Open}, Volume = {5}, Number = {10}, Pages = {e2239131}, Year = {2022}, Month = {October}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39131}, Abstract = {<h4>Importance</h4>Despite a widespread belief that private insurers spend large amounts on health care for enrollees receiving dialysis, data limitations over the past decade have precluded a comprehensive analysis of the topic.<h4>Objective</h4>To examine the amount and types of increases in health care spending for privately insured patients associated with initiating dialysis care.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>A cohort study covering calendar years 2012 to 2019 included patients with kidney failure who had employer-sponsored insurance for 12 months following dialysis initiation. Data analysis was performed from August 27, 2021, to August 18, 2022. The data cover the entirety of the US and were obtained from the Health Care Cost Institute. The data include all medical claims for enrollees in employer-sponsored health insurance plans offered by multiple major health care insurers within the US. Participants included patients younger than 65 years who were continuously enrolled in these plans in the 12 months before and after their first claim for dialysis care. Patients also had to have nonmissing documented key characteristics, such as sex, race and ethnicity, and health characteristics.<h4>Exposures</h4>A claim for dialysis care.<h4>Main outcomes and measures</h4>Out-of-pocket, inpatient, outpatient, physician services, prescription medication, and total health care spending. The hypothesis tested was formulated before data collection.<h4>Results</h4>The sample included 309 800 enrollee-months, which was a balanced panel of 25 months for 12 392 enrollees. At baseline, 7534 patients (61%) were male, 5415 (44%) were aged 55 to 64 years, and patients had been enrolled with their insurer for a mean of 30 months (95% CI, 29.9-30.1 months). In the 12 months before initiating dialysis care, total monthly health care spending was $5025 per patient per month (95% CI, $4945-$5106). Dialysis care initiation was associated with an increase in total monthly spending of $14 685 (95% CI, $14 413-$14 957). This increase occurred across all spending categories (dialysis, nondialysis outpatient, inpatient, physician services, and prescription drugs). Monthly patient out-of-pocket spending increased by $170 (95% CI, $162-$178). These spending increases occurred abruptly, beginning about 2 months before dialysis initiation, and remained increased for the subsequent 12 months.<h4>Conclusions and relevance</h4>In this cohort study, evidence that private insurers experience significant, sustained increases in spending when patients initiated dialysis was noted. The findings suggest that proposed policies aimed at limiting the amount dialysis facilities charge private insurers and the enrollees has the potential to reduce health care spending in this high-cost population.}, Doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39131}, Key = {fds367602} } @article{fds362441, Author = {Bhattacharya, V and Ordin, A and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Bidding and Drilling under Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis of Contingent Payment Auctions}, Journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, Volume = {130}, Number = {5}, Pages = {1319-1363}, Year = {2022}, Month = {May}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/718916}, Abstract = {Auctions are often used to sell assets whose future cash flows require the winner to make postauction investments. When winners’ payments are contingent on these cash flows, auction design can influence both bidding and incentives to exert effort after the auction. We propose a model of contingent payment auctions that links auction design to postauction economic activity. In the context of oil leases in the Permian Basin, we show that moral hazard affects the relative revenue ranking of different auction designs. Among a large class of alternatives, the observed design cannot be changed to increase both revenues and drilling rates.}, Doi = {10.1086/718916}, Key = {fds362441} } @article{fds363228, Author = {Cerullo, M and Yang, K and Joynt Maddox and KE and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW and Offodile, AC}, Title = {Association Between Hospital Private Equity Acquisition and Outcomes of Acute Medical Conditions Among Medicare Beneficiaries.}, Journal = {Jama Network Open}, Volume = {5}, Number = {4}, Pages = {e229581}, Year = {2022}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9581}, Abstract = {<h4>Importance</h4>As private equity (PE) acquisitions of short-term acute care hospitals (ACHs) continue, their impact on the care of medically vulnerable older adults remains largely unexplored.<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate the association between PE acquisition of ACHs and access to care, patient outcomes, and spending among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with acute medical conditions.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>This cross-sectional study used a generalized difference-in-differences approach to compare 21 091 222 patients admitted to PE-acquired vs non-PE-acquired short-term ACHs between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2018, at least 3 years before to 3 years after PE acquisition. The analysis was conducted between December 28, 2020, and February 1, 2022. Differences were estimated using both facility and hospital service area fixed effects. To assess the robustness of findings, regressions were reestimated after including fixed effects of patient county of origin to account for geographic differences in underlying health risks. Two subset analyses were also conducted: (1) an analysis including only hospitals in hospital referral regions with at least 1 PE acquisition and (2) an analysis stratified by participation in the Hospital Corporation of America 2006 acquisition. The study included Medicare beneficiaries 66 years and older who were hospitalized with 1 of 5 acute medical conditions: acute myocardial infarction (AMI), acute stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation, congestive heart failure exacerbation, and pneumonia.<h4>Exposures</h4>Acquisition of hospitals by PE firms.<h4>Main outcomes and measures</h4>Comorbidity burden (measured by Elixhauser comorbidity score), hospital length of stay, in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, and 30-day episode payments.<h4>Results</h4>Among 21 091 222 total Medicare beneficiaries admitted to ACHs between 2001 and 2018, 20 431 486 patients received care at non-PE-acquired hospitals, and 659 736 received care at PE-acquired hospitals. Across all admissions, the mean (SD) age was 79.45 (7.95) years; 11 727 439 patients (55.6%) were male, and 4 550 012 patients (21.6%) had dual insurance; 2 996 560 (14.2%) patients were members of racial or ethnic minority groups, including 2 085 128 [9.9%] Black and 371 648 [1.8%] Hispanic; 18 094 662 patients (85.8%) were White. Overall, 3 083 760 patients (14.6%) were hospitalized with AMI, 2 835 777 (13.4%) with acute stroke, 3 674 477 (17.4%) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation, 5 868 034 (27.8%) with congestive heart failure exacerbation, and 5 629 174 (26.7%) with pneumonia. Comorbidity burden decreased slightly among patients admitted with acute stroke (difference, -0.04 SDs; 95% CI, -0.004 to -0.07 SDs) at acquired hospitals compared with nonacquired hospitals but was unchanged across the other 4 conditions. Among patients with AMI, a greater decrease in in-hospital mortality was observed in PE-acquired hospitals compared with non-PE-acquired hospitals (difference, -1.14 percentage points, 95% CI, -1.86 to -0.42 percentage points). In addition, a greater decrease in 30-day mortality (difference, -1.41 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.26 to -0.56 percentage points) was found at acquired vs nonacquired hospitals. However, 30-day spending and readmission rates remained unchanged across all conditions. The extent and directionality of estimates were preserved across all robustness assessments and subset analyses.<h4>Conclusions and relevance</h4>In this cross-sectional study using a difference-in-differences approach, PE acquisition had no substantial association with the patient-level outcomes examined, although it was associated with a moderate improvement in mortality among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with AMI.}, Doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9581}, Key = {fds363228} } @article{fds362155, Author = {Li, S and Mazur, J and Park, Y and Roberts, J and Sweeting, A and Zhang, J}, Title = {Repositioning and market power after airline mergers}, Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics}, Volume = {53}, Number = {1}, Pages = {166-199}, Year = {2022}, Month = {March}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12404}, Abstract = {We estimate a model of route-level competition between airlines who choose whether to offer nonstop or connecting service before setting prices. Airlines have full information about all quality, marginal cost, and fixed cost unobservables throughout the game, so that service choices will be selected on these residuals. We conduct merger simulations that allow for repositioning and account for the selection implied by the model and the data. Accounting for selection materially affects the predicted likelihood of repositioning and the predicted magnitude of post-merger price changes, and it allows us to match what has been observed after consummated mergers.}, Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12404}, Key = {fds362155} } @article{fds362341, Author = {League, RJ and Eliason, P and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW and Wong, H}, Title = {Variability in Prices Paid for Hemodialysis by Employer-Sponsored Insurance in the US From 2012 to 2019.}, Journal = {Jama Network Open}, Volume = {5}, Number = {2}, Pages = {e220562}, Year = {2022}, Month = {February}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.0562}, Doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.0562}, Key = {fds362341} } @article{fds361184, Author = {Cerullo, M and Yang, KK and Roberts, J and McDevitt, RC and Offodile, AC}, Title = {Private Equity Acquisition And Responsiveness To Service-Line Profitability At Short-Term Acute Care Hospitals.}, Journal = {Health Affairs}, Volume = {40}, Number = {11}, Pages = {1697-1705}, Year = {2021}, Month = {November}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00541}, Abstract = {As private equity firms continue to increase their ownership stake in various health care sectors in the US, questions arise about potential impacts on the organization and delivery of care. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we investigated changes in service-line provision in private equity-acquired hospitals. Relative to nonacquired hospitals, private equity acquisition was associated with a higher probability of adding specific profitable hospital-based services (interventional cardiac catheterization, hemodialysis, and labor and delivery), profitable technologies (robotic surgery and digital mammography), and freestanding or satellite emergency departments. Moreover, private equity acquisition was associated with an increased probability of providing services that were previously categorized as unprofitable but that have more recently become areas of financial opportunity (for example, mental health services). Finally, private equity-acquired hospitals were less likely to add or continue services that have unreliable revenue streams or that may face competition from nonprofit hospitals (for example, outpatient psychiatry), although fewer shifts were noted among unprofitable services. This may reflect a prevailing shift by acute care hospitals toward outpatient settings for appropriate procedures and synergies with existing holdings by private equity firms.}, Doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00541}, Key = {fds361184} } @article{fds325935, Author = {Sweeting, A and Roberts, JW and Gedge, C}, Title = {A model of dynamic limit pricing with an application to the airline industry}, Pages = {1148-1193}, Year = {2020}, Month = {March}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/704760}, Abstract = {We develop a dynamic limit pricing model where an incumbent repeatedly signals information relevant to a potential entrant’s expected profitability. The model is tractable, with a unique equilibrium under refinement, and dynamics contribute to large equilibrium price changes. We show that the model can explain why incumbent airlines cut prices dramatically on routes threatened with entry by Southwest, presenting new reduced-form evidence and a calibration that predicts a pattern of price changes across markets similar to the one observed in the data. We use our calibrated model to quantify the welfare effects of asymmetric information and subsidies designed to encourage Southwest’s entry.}, Doi = {10.1086/704760}, Key = {fds325935} } @article{fds348895, Author = {Eliason, PJ and Heebsh, B and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW}, Title = {How Acquisitions Affect Firm Behavior and Performance: Evidence from the Dialysis Industry}, Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, Volume = {135}, Number = {1}, Pages = {221-267}, Year = {2020}, Month = {February}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz034}, Abstract = {Many industries have become increasingly concentrated through mergers and acquisitions, which in health care may have important consequences for spending and outcomes. Using a rich panel of Medicare claims data for nearly one million dialysis patients, we advance the literature on the effects of mergers and acquisitions by studying the precise ways providers change their behavior following an acquisition. We base our empirical analysis on more than 1,200 acquisitions of independent dialysis facilities by large chains over a 12-year period and find that chains transfer several prominent strategies to the facilities they acquire. Most notably, acquired facilities converge to the behavior of their new parent companies by increasing patients' doses of highly reimbursed drugs, replacing high-skill nurses with less-skilled technicians, and waitlisting fewer patients for kidney transplants. We then show that patients fare worse as a result of these changes: outcomes such as hospitalizations and mortality deteriorate, with our long panel allowing us to identify these effects from within-facility or within-patient variation around the acquisitions. Because overall Medicare spending increases at acquired facilities, mostly as a result of higher drug reimbursements, this decline in quality corresponds to a decline in value for payers. We conclude the article by considering the channels through which acquisitions produce such large changes in provider behavior and outcomes, finding that increased market power cannot explain the decline in quality. Rather, the adoption of the acquiring firm's strategies and practices drives our main results, with greater economies of scale for drug purchasing responsible for more than half of the change in profits following an acquisition.}, Doi = {10.1093/qje/qjz034}, Key = {fds348895} } @article{fds352779, Author = {Bayer, P and Geissler, C and Mangum, K and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Speculators and middlemen: The strategy and performance of investors in the housing market}, Pages = {5212-5247}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2020}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/RFS/HHAA042}, Abstract = {Using data from the Los Angeles area from 1988 to 2012, we study the behavior and sources of returns of individual investors in the housing market. We document the existence of two distinct investor types. The first act as middlemen, purchasing substantially below and reselling above market prices throughout the cycle, improving liquidity and the existing capital stock in the process. The second act as speculators, who primarily enter during the boom, buying and selling at essentially market prices. Neither type anticipated the housing bust. We document similar behavior by speculators and middlemen in 96 other U.S. metro areas.}, Doi = {10.1093/RFS/HHAA042}, Key = {fds352779} } @article{fds325455, Author = {Eliason, PJ and Grieco, PLE and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Strategic Patient Discharge: the Case of Long-Term Care Hospitals.}, Pages = {3232-3265}, Year = {2018}, Month = {November}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170092}, Abstract = {Medicare's prospective payment system for long-term acute-care hospitals (LTCHs) provides modest reimbursements at the beginning of a patient's stay before jumping discontinuously to a large lump-sum payment after a prespecified number of days. We show that LTCHs respond to the financial incentives of this system by disproportionately discharging patients after they cross the large-payment threshold. We find this occurs more often at for-profit facilities, facilities acquired by leading LTCH chains, and facilities colocated with other hospitals. Using a dynamic structural model, we evaluate counterfactual payment policies that would provide substantial savings for Medicare.}, Doi = {10.1257/aer.20170092}, Key = {fds325455} } @article{fds343587, Author = {Li, Y and Mazur, L and Park, Y and Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A and Zhang, J}, Title = {Endogenous and Selective Service Choices after Airline Mergers}, Year = {2018}, Month = {January}, Key = {fds343587} } @article{fds320614, Author = {Bayer, P and Mangum, K and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Speculative Fever: Investor Contagion in the Housing Bubble}, Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (Erid)}, Volume = {111}, Number = {211}, Pages = {51 pages}, Year = {2016}, Month = {February}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/AER.20171611}, Abstract = {Historical anecdotes of new investors being drawn into a booming asset market, only to suffer when the market turns, abound. While the role of investor contagion in asset bubbles has been explored extensively in the theoretical literature, causal empirical evidence on the topic is virtually non-existent. This paper studies the recent boom and bust in the U.S. housing market, and establishes that many novice investors entered the market as a direct result of observing investing activity of multiple forms in their own neighborhoods, and that “infected” investors performed poorly relative to other investors along several dimensions.}, Doi = {10.1257/AER.20171611}, Key = {fds320614} } @article{fds323213, Author = {Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A}, Title = {Bailouts and the preservation of competition: The case of the federal timber contract payment modification act}, Journal = {American Economic Journal: Microeconomics}, Volume = {8}, Number = {3}, Pages = {257-288}, Publisher = {American Economic Association}, Year = {2016}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mic.20150070}, Abstract = {We estimate the value of competition in United States Forest Service (USFS) timber auctions, in the context of the Reagan administration's bailout of firms that faced substantial losses on existing contracts. We use a model with endogenous entry by asymmetric firms, allowing survivors to respond to the exit of bailed-out firms by entering more auctions and for these marginal entrants to have lower values than firms that would choose to enter in any event, a selective entry effect. Observed asymmetries and selective entry contribute to us finding that the bailout may have increased USFS revenues in subsequent auctions quite substantially.}, Doi = {10.1257/mic.20150070}, Key = {fds323213} } @article{fds325777, Author = {Bayer, PJ and Geissler, C and Mangum, K and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of Investors in the Housing Market}, Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (Erid) Working Paper}, Number = {93}, Year = {2015}, Month = {January}, Key = {fds325777} } @article{fds325934, Author = {Bhattacharya, V and Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A}, Title = {Regulating bidder participation in auctions}, Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics}, Volume = {45}, Number = {4}, Pages = {675-704}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2014}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12067}, Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12067}, Key = {fds325934} } @article{fds285766, Author = {Mcdevitt, RC and Roberts, JW}, Title = {Market structure and gender disparity in health care: Preferences, competition, and quality of care}, Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics}, Volume = {45}, Number = {1}, Pages = {116-139}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2014}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0741-6261}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12044}, Abstract = {We consider the relationship between market structure and health outcomes in a setting where patients have stark preferences: urology patients disproportionately match with a urologist of the same gender. In the United States, however, fewer than 6% of urologists are women despite women constituting 30% of patients. We explain a portion of this disparity with a model of imperfect competition in which urology groups strategically differentiate themselves by employing female urologists. These strategic effects may influence women's health, as markets without a female urologist have a 7.3% higher death rate for female bladder cancer, all else equal. © 2014, RAND.}, Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12044}, Key = {fds285766} } @article{fds285767, Author = {Roberts, JW}, Title = {Unobserved heterogeneity and reserve prices in auctions}, Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics}, Volume = {44}, Number = {4}, Pages = {712-732}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2013}, Month = {December}, ISSN = {0741-6261}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1756-2171.12038}, Abstract = {This article shows how reserve prices can be used to control for unobserved object heterogeneity to identify and estimate the distribution of bidder values in auctions. Reserve prices are assumed to be monotonic in the realization of unobserved heterogeneity, but not necessarily set optimally. The model is estimated using transaction prices from a used car auction platform to show that the platform enables sellers to capture a large fraction of the potential value from selling their vehicle. Individual sellers benefit mostly from access to a large set of buyers, but the magnitude depends on accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. © 2014, RAND.}, Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12038}, Key = {fds285767} } @article{fds285768, Author = {Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A}, Title = {When Should Sellers Use Auctions?}, Journal = {American Economic Review}, Volume = {103}, Number = {5}, Pages = {1830-1861}, Publisher = {American Economic Association}, Year = {2013}, ISSN = {0002-8282}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000322878200009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {A bidding process can be organized so that offers are submitted simultaneously or sequentially. In the latter case, potential buyers can condition their behavior on previous entrants' decisions. The relative performance of these mechanisms is investigated when entry is costly and selective, meaning that potential buyers with higher values are more likely to participate. A simple sequential mechanism can give both buyers and sellers significantly higher payoffs than the commonly used simultaneous bid auction. The findings are illustrated with parameters estimated from simultaneous entry USFS timber auctions where our estimates predict that the sequential mechanism would increase revenue and efficiency.}, Doi = {10.1257/aer.103.5.1830}, Key = {fds285768} } %% Working Papers @article{fds158824, Author = {Ben Handel and Kanishka Misra and James W. Roberts}, Title = {Robust Firm Pricing with Panel Data}, Year = {2009}, Month = {December}, Key = {fds158824} } @article{fds158821, Author = {James W. Roberts}, Title = {Unobserved Heterogeneity and Reserve Prices in Auctions}, Year = {2009}, Month = {November}, Key = {fds158821} } @article{fds164577, Author = {J.W. Roberts and Ryan C. McDevitt}, Title = {Gender Disparity in Urology: Preferences, Competition and Quality of Care}, Year = {2009}, Month = {October}, Key = {fds164577} } @article{fds158822, Author = {James W. Roberts}, Title = {Can Warranties Substitute for Reputations?}, Year = {2009}, Month = {June}, Key = {fds158822} } @article{fds158825, Author = {Seda Ertac and Ali Hortacsu and James W. Roberts}, Title = {Entry into Auctions: An Experimental Analysis}, Year = {2009}, Month = {June}, Key = {fds158825} } | |
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