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Publications of Kyle Jurado    :chronological  alphabetical  combined listing:

%% Journal Articles   
   Author = {Chahrour, R and Jurado, K},
   Title = {News or noise? the missing link},
   Number = {228},
   Pages = {1702-1736},
   Publisher = {American Economic Association},
   Year = {2018},
   Month = {July},
   url = {},
   Abstract = {© 2018 American Economic Association. All rights reserved.
             The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news
             and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We
             prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us
             isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations.
             Using three prominent estimated models, we show that
             existing research understates the importance of pure
             beliefs. We also explain how differences in both economic
             environment and information structure affect the estimated
             importance of pure beliefs.},
   Doi = {10.1257/aer.20170792},
   Key = {fds320593}

   Author = {Jurado, K and Ludvigson, SC and Ng, S},
   Title = {Measuring uncertainty},
   Journal = {American Economic Review},
   Volume = {105},
   Number = {3},
   Pages = {1177-1216},
   Publisher = {American Economic Association},
   Year = {2015},
   Month = {January},
   ISSN = {0002-8282},
   url = {},
   Abstract = {This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide
             direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic
             uncertainty. Our estimates display significant independent
             variations from popular uncertainty proxies, suggesting that
             much of the variation in the proxies is not driven by
             uncertainty. Quantitatively important uncertainty episodes
             appear far more infrequently than indicated by popular
             uncertainty proxies, but when they do occur, they are
             larger, more persistent, and are more correlated with real
             activity. Our estimates provide a benchmark to evaluate
             theories for which uncertainty shocks play a role in
             business cycles.},
   Doi = {10.1257/aer.20131193},
   Key = {fds302430}

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