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| Publications of Christopher D. Timmins :chronological combined listing:
%% Books
@book{Alves01,
Author = {D. Alves and C. Timmins and Research Dept and Inter-American
Development Bank and Latin American Research
Network},
Title = {Social exclusion and the two-tiered healthcare system of
Brazil},
Publisher = {Inter-American},
Year = {2001},
Abstract = {In Brazil, there exists a two-tiered system of healthcare
access. Those with sufficient means have access to a private
system of healthcare that provides quality treatment on
demand, while the remainder of the country relies on an
overburdened system of public clinics and hospitals.
Household survey data are used to determine which
socio-demographic groups rely most on this public healthcare
system. Current demographic trends suggest that the public
healthcare infrastructure will become more and more heavily
used in the coming decades. A stylized model of healthcare
choice is estimated, and its parameters are used to conduct
counterfactual simulations of the welfare implications of
this increased congestion, and of policies to offset it,
like private healthcare subsidies.},
Key = {Alves01}
}
%% Papers Submitted
@article{fds164650,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {If You Can't Take the Heat, Get Out of the Cerrado...
Recovering the Equilibrium Amenity Cost of Non-Marginal
Climate Change in Brazil},
Journal = {International Economic Review},
Year = {2004},
Key = {fds164650}
}
%% Journal Articles
@article{Bayer09,
Author = {Patrick Bayer and Nathaniel Keohane and Christopher
Timmins},
Title = {Migration and hedonic valuation: The case of air
quality},
Journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
Volume = {58},
Number = {1},
Pages = {1-14},
Year = {2009},
Month = {July},
Keywords = {Discrete choice models • Migration costs •
Particulate matter • residential sorting •
Valuation of air qualitly • Wage-hedonic
models},
Abstract = {Conventional hedonic techniques for estimating the value of
local amenities rely on the assumption that households move
freely among locations. We show that when moving is costly,
the variation in housing prices and wages across locations
may no longer reflect the value of differences in local
amenities. We develop an alternative discrete-choice
approach that models the household location decision
directly, and we apply it to the case of air quality in US
metro areas in 1990 and 2000. Because air pollution is
likely to be correlated with unobservable local
characteristics such as economic activity, we instrument for
air quality using the contribution of distant sources to
local pollution{\^a}excluding emissions from local sources,
which are most likely to be correlated with local
conditions. Our model yields an estimated elasticity of
willingness to pay with respect to air quality of 0.34-0.42.
These estimates imply that the median household would pay
\$149-\$185 (in constant 1982-1984 dollars) for a one-unit
reduction in average ambient concentrations of particulate
matter. These estimates are three times greater than the
marginal willingness to pay estimated by a conventional
hedonic model using the same data. Our results are robust to
a range of covariates, instrumenting strategies, and
functional form assumptions. The findings also confirm the
importance of instrumenting for local air
pollution.},
Key = {Bayer09}
}
@article{bayer_migration_2009,
Author = {Patrick Bayer and Nathaniel Keohane and Christopher
Timmins},
Title = {Migration and Hedonic Valuation: The Case of Air
Quality},
Journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
Volume = {58},
Number = {1},
Pages = {1--14},
Year = {2009},
Month = {July},
ISSN = {00950696},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1053708&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste;
Solid Waste; Recycling Q530, Consumer Economics: Empirical
Analysis D120, Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics:
Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population;
Neighborhood Characteristics R230},
Abstract = {Conventional hedonic techniques for estimating the value of
local amenities rely on the assumption that households move
freely among locations. We show that when moving is costly,
the variation in housing prices and wages across locations
may no longer reflect the value of differences in local
amenities. We develop an alternative discrete-choice
approach that models the household location decision
directly, and we apply it to the case of air quality in {US}
metro areas in 1990 and 2000. Because air pollution is
likely to be correlated with unobservable local
characteristics such as economic activity, we instrument for
air quality using the contribution of distant sources to
local pollution--excluding emissions from local sources,
which are most likely to be correlated with local
conditions. Our model yields an estimated elasticity of
willingness to pay with respect to air quality of 0.34-0.42.
These estimates imply that the median household would pay
\$149-\$185 (in constant 1982-1984 dollars) for a one-unit
reduction in average ambient concentrations of particulate
matter. These estimates are three times greater than the
marginal willingness to pay estimated by a conventional
hedonic model using the same data. Our results are robust to
a range of covariates, instrumenting strategies, and
functional form assumptions. The findings also confirm the
importance of instrumenting for local air
pollution.},
Key = {bayer_migration_2009}
}
@article{wagner_agglomeration_2009,
Author = {Ulrich J. Wagner and Christopher D. Timmins},
Title = {Agglomeration Effects in Foreign Direct Investment and the
Pollution Haven Hypothesis},
Journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
Volume = {43},
Number = {2},
Pages = {231--256},
Year = {2009},
Month = {June},
ISSN = {09246460},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1052364&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste;
Solid Waste; Recycling Q530, Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs;
Biotechnology L650, Economic Development: Agriculture;
Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary
Products O130, Environmental Economics: Government Policy
Q580, Multinational Firms; International Business F230,
Other Production and Pricing Analysis R320},
Abstract = {Does environmental regulation impair international
competitiveness of pollution-intensive industries to the
extent that they relocate to countries with less stringent
regulation, turning those countries into "pollution havens"?
We test this hypothesis using panel data on outward foreign
direct investment {(FDI)} flows of various industries in the
German manufacturing sector and account for several
econometric issues that have been ignored in previous
studies. Most importantly, we demonstrate that externalities
associated with {FDI} agglomeration can bias estimates away
from finding a pollution haven effect if omitted from the
analysis. We include the stock of inward {FDI} as a proxy
for agglomeration and employ a {GMM} estimator to control
for endogenous time-varying determinants of {FDI} flows.
Furthermore, we propose a difference estimator based on the
least polluting industry to break the possible correlation
between environmental regulatory stringency and unobservable
attributes of {FDI} recipients in the cross-section. When
accounting for these issues we find robust evidence of a
pollution haven effect for the chemical industry.},
Key = {wagner_agglomeration_2009}
}
@article{li_do_2009,
Author = {Shanjun Li and Christopher Timmins and Roger H. von
Haefen},
Title = {How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel
Economy?},
Journal = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
Volume = {1},
Number = {2},
Pages = {113--137},
Year = {2009},
ISSN = {19457731},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1051386&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Business Taxes and Subsidies including sales and value-added
{(VAT)} H250, Industry Studies: Manufacturing: Other L690,
Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels L710,
Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution
of Firms L110},
Abstract = {Exploiting a rich dataset of passenger vehicle registrations
in 20 {US} {MSAs} from 1997 to 2005, we examine the effects
of gasoline prices on the automotive fleet's composition. We
find that high gasoline prices affect fleet fuel economy
through two channels: shifting new auto purchases towards
more fuel-efficient vehicles, and speeding the scrappage of
older, less fuel-efficient used vehicles. Policy simulations
suggest that a 10 percent increase in gasoline prices from
2005 levels will generate a 0.22 percent increase in fleet
fuel economy in the short run and a 2.04 percent increase in
the long run.},
Key = {li_do_2009}
}
@article{Gamper-Rabindr08,
Author = {Gamper-Rabindran, Shanti and Khan, Shakeeb and Timmins,
Christopher},
Title = {The Impact of Piped Water Provision on Infant Mortality in
Brazil: A Quantile Panel Data Approach},
Journal = {SSRN},
Year = {2008},
Month = {October},
Keywords = {Distribution of public goods • Heterogenous program
impact • Infant mortality • Piped water supply
• Quantile fixed effects},
Abstract = {We examine the impact of piped water on the under-1 infant
mortality rate (IMR) in Brazil using a novel econometric
procedure for the estimation of quantile treatment effects
with panel data. The provision of piped water in Brazil is
highly correlated with other observable and unobservable
determinants of IMR {\^a} the latter leading to an important
source of bias. Instruments for piped water provision are
not readily available, and fixed effects to control for time
invariant correlated unobservables are invalid in simple
quantile regression framework. Using the quantile panel data
procedure in Chen and Khan (2007), our estimates indicate
that the provision of piped water reduces infant mortality
by significantly more at the higher conditional quantiles of
the IMR than at the lower conditional quantiles (except for
cases of extreme underdevelopment). These results imply that
targeting piped water intervention in areas with higher
conditional quantiles of the IMR, when accompanied by a
basic level of other public health inputs, can achieve
significantly greater reductions in infant
mortality.},
Key = {Gamper-Rabindr08}
}
@article{Li08,
Author = {Shanjun Li and Roger H. Von Haefen and Christopher
Timmins},
Title = {How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel
Economy?},
Journal = {SSRN},
Year = {2008},
Month = {October},
Keywords = {Fuel-inefficient vehicle • Gasoline • MPG •
VMT},
Abstract = {Several recent studies have compared gasoline taxes and CAFE
standards and have concluded that increasing the gasoline
tax is more cost-effective. When evaluating the policy
options, two important behavioral drivers are: (1) the
utilization effect, or the responsiveness of vehicles miles
traveled (VMT) to fluctuations in gasonline prices, and (2)
the compositional effect, or the responsiveness of fleet
fuel economy to gasoline price changes. Although a large
body of empirical evidence on the magnitude of the
utilization effect now exists (see Small and Van Dender
(2007) and Hughes, Knittel, and Sperling (2008) for
summaries and recent contributions), less evidence exists on
the size of the compositional effect. This is the focus of
our paper.},
Key = {Li08}
}
@article{Bayer08,
Author = {Patrick J. Bayer and Shakeeb Khan and Christopher
Timmins},
Title = {Nonparametric Identification and Estimation in a Generalized
Roy Model},
Journal = {SSRN},
Year = {2008},
Month = {March},
Keywords = {Migration • non-pecuniary returns • returns to
college education • Roy Model},
Abstract = {This paper considers nonparametric identification and
estimation of a generalized Roy model that includes a
non-pecuniary component of utility associated with each
choice alternative. Previous work has found that, without
parametric restrictions or the availability of covariates,
all of the useful content of a cross-sectional dataset is
absorbed in a restrictive specification of Roy sorting
behavior that imposes independence on wage draws. While this
is true, we demonstrate that it is also possible to identify
(under relatively innocuous assumptions and without the use
of covariates) a common nonpecuniary component of utility
associated with each choice alternative. We develop
nonparametric estimators corresponding to two alternative
assumptions under which we prove identification, derive
asymptotic properties, and illustrate small sample
properties with a series of Monte Carlo experiments. We
demonstrate the usefulness of one of these estimators with
an empirical application. Micro data from the 2000 Census
are used to calculate the returns to a college education. If
high-school and college graduates face different costs of
migration, this would be reflected in different degrees of
Roy-sorting-induced bias in their observed wage
distributions. Correcting for this bias, the observed
returns to a college degree are cut in half.},
Key = {Bayer08}
}
@article{Bishop08,
Author = {K. Bishop and C. Timmins},
Title = {Simple, Consistent Estimation of the Marginal Willingness to
Pay Function: Recovering Rosen's Second Stage without
Instrumental Variables},
Journal = {Duke University Department of Economics Working
Paper},
Year = {2008},
Keywords = {Hedonic price function • MWTP •
Rosen},
Abstract = {Since the publication of Rosen's \textbackslashHedonic
Prices and Implicit Markets", property value hedonics has
been used extensively in the non-market valuation of
environmental amenities, despite a number of important and
well-known econometric problems. We propose a new approach
to the estimation of the hedonic model that allows for
exible and unobservably heterogeneous preferences while
avoiding the endogeneity problems described by Epple (1987).
Moreover, we do so without relying on the weak instrument
strategies that have been typically used in the hedonic
literature. We also demonstrate that these problems are not
easily solved by way of simple preference inversion proce-
dures, even with rich panel data on house purchases. Using
data on ozone pollution in the Bay Area of California, we
implement this estimator and nd that controlling for
endogeneity bias has imporant implications for valuing
non-marginal policy interven- tions.},
Key = {Bishop08}
}
@article{bayer_estimating_2007,
Author = {Patrick Bayer and Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Estimating Equilibrium Models of Sorting across
Locations},
Journal = {Economic Journal},
Volume = {117},
Number = {518},
Pages = {353--374},
Year = {2007},
Month = {March},
ISSN = {00130133},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0913391&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Other Production and Pricing Analysis R320, Urban, Rural,
and Regional Economics: Housing Demand R210, Urban, Rural,
and Regional Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor
Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
R230},
Abstract = {While there is growing interest in measuring the size and
scope of local spillovers, it is well understood that such
spillovers cannot be distinguished from unobservable local
attributes using solely the observed location decisions of
individuals or firms. We propose an empirical strategy for
recovering estimates of spillovers in the presence of
unobserved local attributes for a broadly applicable class
of equilibrium sorting models. Our approach relies on an
{IV} strategy derived from the internal logic of the sorting
model itself. We show practically how the strategy is
implemented, provide intuition for our instruments, discuss
the role of effective choice-set variation in identifying
the model, and carry-out a series of Monte Carlo simulations
to demonstrate performance in small samples.},
Key = {bayer_estimating_2007}
}
@article{timmins_revealed_2007,
Author = {Christopher Timmins and Jennifer Murdock},
Title = {A Revealed Preference Approach to the Measurement of
Congestion in Travel Cost Models},
Journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
Volume = {53},
Number = {2},
Pages = {230--249},
Year = {2007},
Month = {March},
ISSN = {00950696},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0902859&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources Q260, Renewable
Resources and Conservation: Fishery; Aquaculture Q220,
Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Safety and
Accidents; Transportation Noise R410},
Abstract = {Travel cost models are regularly used to determine the value
of recreational sites or particular site characteristics,
yet congestion, a key site attribute, is often excluded from
such analyses. One reason for this omission is that
congestion is determined in equilibrium by the process of
individuals sorting across sites and thus presents
significant endogeneity problems. This paper illustrates
this source of endogeneity, describes how previous research
has dealt with it using stated preference techniques, and
describes an instrumental variables approach to address it
in a revealed preference context. We demonstrate that
failing to address the endogeneity of congestion leads one
to dramatically understate its costs. We apply our technique
to the valuation of a large recreational fishing site in
Wisconsin {(Lake} Winnebago) which, if eliminated, would
induce significant re-sorting of anglers amongst remaining
sites. Ignoring congestion leads to an understatement of the
lake's value by more than 50\%.},
Key = {timmins_revealed_2007}
}
@article{timmins_if_2007,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {If You Cannot Take the Heat, Get out of the Cerrado . . .
Recovering the Equilibrium Amenity Cost of Nonmarginal
Climate Change in Brazil},
Journal = {Journal of Regional Science},
Volume = {47},
Number = {1},
Pages = {1--25},
Year = {2007},
Month = {February},
ISSN = {00224146},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0903165&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming Q540, Economic
Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy;
Environment; Other Primary Products O130, Economic
Development: Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses O180,
Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Regional Migration;
Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood
Characteristics R230, Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q510},
Abstract = {This paper presents an empirical technique for valuing large
changes in nonmarketed local attributes (e.g., climate
amenities) without data describing prices of locally traded
commodities like housing. A model of endogenous sorting is
used to identify individuals' indirect utility functions,
from which the value of the change in the local attribute is
recovered while accounting for equilibrium impacts on
markets for labor and locally traded commodities. Annual
amenity costs of Brazilian climate change are estimated to
be between \$1.6 and \$8.1 billion for a moderate climate
change scenario, depending upon the role of migration
costs.},
Key = {timmins_if_2007}
}
@article{Timmins07,
Author = {Christopher Timmins and Jennifer Murdock},
Title = {A revealed preference approach to the measurement of
congestion in travel cost models},
Journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
Volume = {53},
Number = {2},
Pages = {230-249},
Year = {2007},
Keywords = {Congestion • Discrete-choice • instrumental
variables • Quantile regression • Random utility
model • Travel cost},
Abstract = {Travel cost models are regularly used to determine the value
of recreational sites or particular site characteristics,
yet congestion, a key site attribute, is often excluded from
such analyses. One reason for this omission is that
congestion is determined in equilibrium by the process of
individuals sorting across sites and thus presents
significant endogeneity problems. This paper illustrates
this source of endogeneity, describes how previous research
has dealt with it using stated preference techniques, and
describes an instrumental variables approach to address it
in a revealed preference context. We demonstrate that
failing to address the endogeneity of congestion leads one
to dramatically understate its costs. We apply our technique
to the valuation of a large recreational fishing site in
Wisconsin (Lake Winnebago) which, if eliminated, would
induce significant re-sorting of anglers amongst remaining
sites. Ignoring congestion leads to an understatement of the
lake's value by more than 50\%.},
Key = {Timmins07}
}
@article{timmins_estimating_2006,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Estimating Spatial Differences in the Brazilian Cost of
Living with Household Location Choices},
Journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
Volume = {80},
Number = {1},
Pages = {59--83},
Year = {2006},
Month = {June},
ISSN = {03043878},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0870767&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis D120, Economic
Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income
Distribution; Migration O150, Other Production and Pricing
Analysis R320, Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics:
Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population;
Neighborhood Characteristics R230},
Abstract = {This paper uses a model of optimal household residential
decisions to construct a comprehensive "true" spatial cost
of living index with readily available Brazilian census
data. We find evidence of a decreasing or U-shaped
relationship (differing with education level and region)
between the cost of living and urbanization, suggesting that
both market disintegration and congestion play roles in
raising costs. Controlling for spatial differences in the
cost of living is shown to have important consequences for
the determinants of poverty and (contrary to many previous
results) to increase income inequality.},
Key = {timmins_estimating_2006}
}
@article{Timmins06a,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Endogenous Land use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate
Change},
Journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
Volume = {33},
Number = {1},
Pages = {119-142},
Year = {2006},
Keywords = {Endogenous land • Ricardian technique},
Abstract = {The Ricardian technique uses cross-sectional variation in
the capitalized value of climate in land to infer the
agricultural costs or benefits of dynamic climate change.
While a practical approach for predicting the consequences
of global warming with readily available data, it may yield
biased results when land-use decisions depend on the climate
attributes being valued and when land has unobserved
attributes that differ with the use to which it is put. This
paper illustrates the conditions under which such a bias
will occur, describes an empirical model that corrects for
it, and estimates that model with agricultural census data
from Brazil. The approach, moreover, allows constraints on
adjustment to be explicitly incorporated into the Ricardian
framework, relaxing one of that technique{\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}{\^A}$\neg${\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}s
most conspicuous assumptions.},
Key = {Timmins06a}
}
@article{Timmins06,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Estimating spatial differences in the Brazilian cost of
living with household location choices},
Journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
Volume = {80},
Number = {1},
Pages = {59-83},
Year = {2006},
Keywords = {Discrete choice models • Endogenous sorting •
Income inequality • poverty • True cost-of-living
index • Urbanization},
Abstract = {This paper uses a model of optimal household residential
decisions to construct a comprehensive {\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}{\^A}$\neg${\~A}{\^a}true{\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}{\^A}$\neg${\~A}{\^A}
spatial cost of living index with readily available
Brazilian census data. We find evidence of a decreasing or
U-shaped relationship (differing with education level and
region) between the cost of living and urbanization,
suggesting that both market disintegration and congestion
play roles in raising costs. Controlling for spatial
differences in the cost of living is shown to have important
consequences for the determinants of poverty and (contrary
to many previous results) to increase income
inequality.},
Key = {Timmins06}
}
@article{timmins_endogenous_2006,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Endogenous Land Use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate
Change},
Journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
Volume = {33},
Number = {1},
Pages = {119--142},
Year = {2006},
ISSN = {09246460},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0833216&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Keywords = {Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming Q540, Valuation
of Environmental Effects Q510},
Abstract = {The Ricardian technique uses cross-sectional variation in
the capitalized value of climate in land to infer the
agricultural costs or benefits of dynamic climate change.
While a practical approach for predicting the consequences
of global warming with readily available data, it may yield
biased results when land-use decisions depend on the climate
attributes being valued and when land has unobserved
attributes that differ with the use to which it is put. This
paper illustrates the conditions under which such a bias
will occur, describes an empirical model that corrects for
it, and estimates that model with agricultural census data
from Brazil. The approach, moreover, allows constraints on
adjustment to be explicitly incorporated into the Ricardian
framework, relaxing one of that technique's most conspicuous
assumptions.},
Key = {timmins_endogenous_2006}
}
@article{Nou05,
Author = {Jennifer Nou and Christopher Timmins},
Title = {How Do Changes in Welfare Law Affect Domestic Violence? An
Analysis of Connecticut Towns, 1990-2000},
Journal = {The Journal of Legal Studies},
Volume = {34},
Number = {2},
Pages = {445-470},
Year = {2005},
Keywords = {Domestic violence • Time limits • Welfare reform
• Welfare to work • Work mandates},
Abstract = {The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity
Reconciliation Act transformed welfare from an ongoing cash
assistance program by restricting participation through time
limits and emphasizing rapid entrance into the labor force.
Changes in welfare dependency induced by these legal reforms
had the potential to impact rates of domestic violence.
Using decennial census, welfare caseload, and police report
data, this paper investigates the introduction of time
limits and work mandates across Connecticut towns. For a
variety of reasons, Connecticut proves to be an ideal
laboratory from which to obtain evidence. We find that rates
of domestic violence fell in Connecticut with the passage of
the new welfare law, especially in towns most subject to the
law{\~A}{\AE}{\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}$\neg${\AA}!'{\~A}{\^A}$\neg${\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}$\neg${\AA}$3\over4${\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}s
provisions. Using Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform
Crime Report data, we also find evidence that such results
hold independent of the reform{\~A}{\AE}{\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}$\neg${\AA}!'{\~A}{\^A}$\neg${\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}$\neg${\AA}$3\over4${\~A}{\^A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}s
effects on other personal crimes and crimes in
general.},
Key = {Nou05}
}
@article{Timmins05,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Estimable equilibrium models of locational sorting and their
role in development economics},
Journal = {J Econ Geogr},
Volume = {5},
Number = {1},
Pages = {83-100},
Year = {2005},
Keywords = {Agglomeration • Congestion • Discrete choice
models • Economic geography • Endogenous location
choice • Local spillovers • Natural
advantage},
Abstract = {Geography plays a prominent role in many problems in
development economics{\^a}directly in analyses of the
spatial distribution of important variables like poverty and
productivity, and indirectly through the role of local
spillovers in economic growth. Empirical work on these
topics is complicated by the fact that the behavioral
consequences of such spillovers cannot be distinguished from
those of unobservable local attributes using only the
observed location decisions of individuals or firms. This
problem can be solved with an instrumental variables
strategy derived from the internal logic of a structural
model of residential sorting. We show practically how the
strategy is implemented, provide intuition for the
instruments and econometric identification, demonstrate how
traditional techniques overstate agglomeration
externalities, and use the model to value changes in
spillovers from urban centers.},
Key = {Timmins05}
}
@article{Bayer05,
Author = {Patrick Bayer and Christopher Timmins},
Title = {On the equilibrium properties of locational sorting
models},
Journal = {Journal of Urban Economics},
Volume = {57},
Number = {3},
Pages = {462-477},
Year = {2005},
Keywords = {Agglomeration • Congestion • Discrete choice
models • Economic geography • Endogenous sorting
• Local spillovers • Natural advantage •
random utility • Social interactions},
Abstract = {Important to many models of location choice is the role of
local interactions or spillovers, whereby the payoffs from
choosing a location depend in part on the number or
attributes of other individuals or firms that choose the
same or nearby locations in equilibrium. This paper develops
the equilibrium properties of a broadly applicable and
readily estimable class of sorting models that allow
location decisions to depend on both fixed local attributes
(including unobserved attributes) and local interactions,
describes the conditions under which equilibria exist and
are unique, and provides a test for uniqueness in empirical
analyses of sorting equilibrium.},
Key = {Bayer05}
}
@article{fds26746,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Poverty Measurement in the Presence of Spatially Varying
Prices and Non-Marketed Consumption},
Journal = {Economic Development and Cultural Change},
Year = {2004},
Key = {fds26746}
}
@article{fds26747,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Agglomeration Effects in Foreign Direct Investment and the
'Pollution Havens' Hyprothesis},
Journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
Year = {2004},
Key = {fds26747}
}
@article{fds25855,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Estimable Equilibrium Models of Locational Sorting and Their
Role in Development Economics},
Journal = {Journal of Economic Geography},
Year = {2004},
Key = {fds25855}
}
@article{fds25863,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Endogenous Land Use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate
Change},
Journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
Year = {2004},
Key = {fds25863}
}
@article{fds25864,
Author = {C.D. Timmins and Jennifer Nou},
Title = {How Do Changes in Welfare Law Affect Domestic Violence? An
Analysis of Connecticut Towns, 1990-2000},
Journal = {Journal of Legal Studies},
Year = {2004},
Key = {fds25864}
}
@article{fds25853,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Demand-Side Technology Standards Under Inefficient Pricing
Regimes: Are They Effective Water Conservation Tools in the
Long-Run?},
Journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
Volume = {26},
Number = {1},
Pages = {107-124},
Year = {2003},
Month = {September},
Key = {fds25853}
}
@article{Timmins03a,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Demand-Side Technology Standards Under Inefficient Pricing
Regimes},
Journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics},
Volume = {26},
Number = {1},
Pages = {107-124},
Year = {2003},
Keywords = {Demand-side technology standard • Dynamic programming
problem • Efficient pricing • Groundwater},
Abstract = {Abstract When price-setting regulators haveobjectives other
than maximizing socialsurplus, the conservation potential
ofdemand-side technology standards can besignificantly
diminished. This paperdemonstrates this by empirically
recovering thesocially sub-optimal preferences of a group
ofwater managers in a groundwater-dependentregion of
California and simulating theirinefficient price response to
the mandatedadoption of low-flow appliances by homeowners.
The resulting reduction in the conservationpotential of
these appliances is quantified,and a modest tax is shown to
be a relativelycost-effective policy tool for conservation.
If non-price conservation policies arepreferred according to
equity criteria, thepaper suggests that, in order to
preserve theirconservation potential, policy-makers should
berequired to continue to set prices as if notechnology
standards had been introduced.},
Key = {Timmins03a}
}
@article{fds25858,
Author = {C.D. Timmins and Patrick Bayer},
Title = {On the Equilibrium Properties of Locational Sorting
Models},
Journal = {Journal of Urban Economics},
Year = {2003},
Key = {fds25858}
}
@article{fds25859,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Estimating Spatial Differences in the Brazilian
Cost-of-Living With Household Location Choices},
Journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
Year = {2003},
Key = {fds25859}
}
@article{fds25861,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Health and Climate Change in the Developing World: The
Impact of Global Warming on Brazilian Morbidity
Patterns},
Year = {2003},
Key = {fds25861}
}
@article{fds25862,
Author = {C.D. Timmins and Patrick Bayer},
Title = {Estimating Equilibrium Models of Sorting Across
Locations},
Journal = {Economic Journal},
Year = {2003},
Key = {fds25862}
}
@article{fds25852,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Does the Median Voter Consume Too Much Water? Analyzing the
Redistributive Role of Residential Water
Bills},
Journal = {National Tax Journal},
Volume = {LV},
Number = {4},
Pages = {687-702},
Year = {2002},
Month = {December},
Key = {fds25852}
}
@article{fds25851,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Measuring the Dynamic Efficiency Costs of Regulators'
Preferences: Municipal Water Utilities in the Arid
West},
Journal = {Econometrica},
Volume = {70},
Number = {2},
Pages = {603-629},
Year = {2002},
Month = {March},
Key = {fds25851}
}
@article{Timmins02,
Author = {Christopher Timmins},
Title = {Measuring the Dynamic Efficiency Costs of Regulators'
Preferences: Municipal Water Utilities in the Arid
West},
Journal = {Econometrica},
Volume = {70},
Number = {2},
Pages = {603-629},
Year = {2002},
Month = {March},
Keywords = {Dynamic program • Groundwater • In situ shadow
value • Nested fixed-point algorithm • Publicly
provided private goods},
Abstract = {Evidence suggests that municipal water utility
administrators in the western US price water significantly
below its marginal cost and, in so doing, inefficiently
exploit aquifer stocks and induce social surplus losses.
This paper empirically identifies the objective function of
those managers, measures the deadweight losses resulting
from their price-discounting decisions, and recovers the
efficient water pricing policy function from counterfactual
experiments. In doing so, the estimation uses a
"continuous-but-constrained-control" version of a nested
fixed-point algorithm in order to measure the important
intertemporal consequences of groundwater pricing
decisions.},
Key = {Timmins02}
}
%% Chapters in Books
@misc{lall_connecting_2009,
Author = {Somik V. Lall and Christopher Timmins and Shouyue
Yu},
Title = {Connecting lagging and leading regions: the role of labor
mobility},
Booktitle = {Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs},
Publisher = {The Brookings Institution},
Address = {Washington, D.C.},
Year = {2009},
url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1036301&site=ehost-live&scope=site},
Abstract = {How can policies improve the welfare of people in
economically lagging regions of countries? Should policies
help jobs follow people? Or should they enable people to
follow jobs? In most countries, market forces have
encouraged the geographic concentration of people and
economic activities--policies that try to offset these
forces to encourage balanced economic growth have largely
been unsuccessful. However, policies that help people get
closer to economic density have improved individual welfare.
In this paper, the authors examine the migration decisions
of working-age Brazilians and find that the pull of higher
wages in leading regions has a strong influence on the
decision to migrate. However, many people are also"pushed"to
migrate, starved of access to basic public services such as
clean water and sanitation in their hometowns. Although
migration is welfare-improving for these individuals, the
economy may end up worse off as these migrants are more
likely to add to congestion costs in cities than to
contribute to agglomeration benefits. Encouraging human
capital formation can stimulate labor mobility for economic
gain; and improving access to and quality of basic services
in lagging regions will directly improve welfare as well as
reduce the type of migration motivated by the search for
life-supporting basic services.},
Key = {lall_connecting_2009}
}
@article{fds25856,
Author = {C.D. Timmins and Denisard Alves},
Title = {Social Exclusion and the Two-Tiered Healthcare System of
Brazil},
Booktitle = {Who's In and Who's Out: Social Exclusion in Latin
America},
Publisher = {Inter-American Development Bank, Washington,
D.C.},
Editor = {Behrman, Gaviria and Szekely},
Year = {2003},
Key = {fds25856}
}
@article{fds25854,
Author = {C.D. Timmins},
Title = {Demand-Side Technology Standards Under Inefficient Pricing
Regimes: Are They Effective Water Conservation Tools in the
Long-Run?},
Booktitle = {Current Issues in the Economics of Water Resource
Management: Theory, Applications, and Policy},
Publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA},
Editor = {P. Pashardes and T. Swanson and A. Xepapadeas},
Year = {2002},
Key = {fds25854}
}
@article{fds25857,
Author = {C.D. Timmins and Elca Rosenberg and Denisard Alves and Robert
Evenson},
Title = {Health, Climate and Development in Brazil: A Cross-Section
Analysis},
Booktitle = {Inter-American Development Bank Report R-386},
Year = {2000},
Month = {August},
Key = {fds25857}
}
%% Working Papers
@techreport{Timmins03,
Author = {C. Timmins and E. G. Center},
Title = {Health and Climate Change in the Developing World: The
Impact of Global Warming on Brazilian Morbidity
Patterns},
Organization = {Working Paper. Yale University},
Year = {2003},
Keywords = {General circulation model • Global warming • IPCC
• morbidity • WHO},
Abstract = {The IPCC and WHO have identified increasing disease
incidence as a potential consequence of global climate
change, especially in the developing world where morbidity
rates are already high and health resources are scarce. This
paper infers the likely impact of global warming on
Brazilian disease patterns from crosssectional covariation
in morbidity and climate data while conditioning upon
demographics, access to healthcare, education,
characteristics of the housing stock, and other local
attributes. A combination of Brazilian census and recently
assembled public health data identify this model for four
disease categories and infant mortality.},
Key = {Timmins03}
}
@techreport{MaCurdy00,
Author = {T. MaCurdy and C. Timmins},
Title = {Bounding the influence of attrition on intertemporal wage
variation in the NLSY},
Organization = {Mimeo Stanford University},
Year = {2000},
Keywords = {ARMA models • NLSY • Wage growth
relationships},
Abstract = {This paper analyzes wage dynamics in the National
Longitudinal Survey of Youth, controlling for the effects of
censoring caused by non-random attrition. Nonrandom
attrition, caused by individuals failing to appear for
interviews or choosing not to work, is common in
longitudinal surveys like they NLSY and can bias statistical
analyses. Techniques to control for the effects of
non-random censoring on the dynamics of mean wages require a
great deal of knowledge of (or assumptions about) the
censoring process. We adapt the non-parametric bounding
techniques of Manski for use with a newly proposed Smoothed
GMM quantile estimator to overcome this problem by studying
the dynamics of wage percentiles. Results suggest that
non-random attrition does not pose serious problems for the
analysis of men{\~A}{\^a}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}$\neg${\^a}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}s
wages, but that the combination of multiple sources of
attrition leads to significant potential biases in the study
of women{\~A}{\^a}{\~A}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}{\^a}$\neg${\^a}\leavevmode\hbox{\rm\rlap/c}s
wages.},
Key = {MaCurdy00}
}
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