Publications [#238086] of Neil de Marchi

Journal Articles

1. Kim, J; De Marchi, N; Morgan, MS, Empirical model particularities and belief in the natural rate hypothesis, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 67 no. 1 (January, 1995), pp. 81-102, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0304-4076 (part of Annals of Econometrics: The Significance of Testing in Econometrics, edited by Hugo Keuzekamp and Jan R. Magnus..) [repository], [doi]
   (last updated on 2024/04/19)

   Abstract:
   Economists test to strengthen conviction, though mostly without disclosing how this can occur. There is a clear line of logical implication from theory to model; but in the process there may be a narrowing and specialization of the hypothesis so that it is not clear what weight should be placed upon the result of a test on the model. Empirical models and tests may be narrowed down so far that they involve certain nonunique characteristics of the original theories. Even when a hypothesis is confirmed, no reverse inference back to theory can be made from such tests. We illustrate how a number of such 'characteristics tests' worked, drawing on American economists' tests of the natural rate hypothesis in the 1970s. © 1995.