Publications [#315683] of Robert L. Winkler
Papers Published
- Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH. "Experimental Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects." Atmosphere 15.2 (1977): 61-78. [doi]
(last updated on 2026/01/17)Abstract:
This paper describes the results of a recent experiment designed to inves-tigate the ability of forecasters to make point and area precipitation probability forecasts. The location of the experiment (Rapid City, South Dakota) was chosen because of the existence of a network of raingages and because of significant local effects that cause variation among points in terms of precipitation occurrence. A similar experiment conducted at a different location in 1972-73 yielded encouraging results (see Winkler and Murphy, 1976), but the lack of variability in precipitation occurrence among points in the forecast area in that experiment made it difficult to answer several important questions of interest.On each forecasting occasion during the Rapid City experiment, the forecasters made an average point probability forecast for the area, indi-vidual point probability forecasts for four specific points in the area, an area probability forecast, and an expected areal coverage forecast. The results indicate that the forecasters were able to differentiate with considerable success among the different points in the forecast area in terms of the probability of precipitation. Moreover, the different types of probability forecasts showed a high degree of internal consistency, and the forecasts were all quite reliable and accurate. The results of this experiment, which provide encouraging evidence that forecasters can differentiate among points in such a forecast area and that they can formulate different types of precipitation probability forecasts, have important implications for operational forecasting practices. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.