Publications [#386599] of Robert L. Winkler
Papers Published
- Winkler, RL; Jose, VRR. "Scoring Rules." Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (January, 2010): 1-11. [doi]
(last updated on 2026/01/16)Abstract:
Probabilities are used to quantify uncertainty in operations research and management science modeling. Scoring rules provide a numerical measure (a score or reward) based on probabilities for an event or variable and on what actually occurs. As such, they are valuable in evaluating how “good” probabilities are in light of what happens, and they also provide incentives for careful elicitation of probabilities. We discuss basic properties of scoring rules, present families of scoring rules that are useful under various conditions, and discuss some related issues.