Publications of James W. Roberts
%% Journal Articles
@article{fds343588,
Author = {Garrett, D and Ordin, A and Roberts, JW and Suárez Serrato,
JC},
Title = {Tax Advantages and Imperfect Competition in Auctions for
Municipal Bonds},
Journal = {Review of Economic Studies},
Volume = {90},
Number = {2},
Pages = {815-851},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2023},
Month = {March},
Abstract = {<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>We study the
interaction between tax advantages for municipal bonds and
the market structure of auctions for these bonds. We show
that this interaction can limit a bidder’s ability to
extract information rents and is a crucial determinant of
state and local governments’ borrowing costs. Reduced-form
estimates show that increasing the tax advantage by 3 pp
lowers mean borrowing costs by 9–10$\%$. We estimate a
structural auction model to measure markups and to
illustrate and quantify how the interaction between tax
policy and bidder strategic behaviour determines the impact
of tax advantages on municipal borrowing costs. We use the
estimated model to evaluate the efficiency of Obama and
Trump administration policies that limit the tax advantage
for municipal bonds. Because reductions in the tax advantage
inflate bidder markups and depress competition, the
resulting increase in municipal borrowing costs more than
offsets the tax savings to the government. Finally, we use
the model to analyse a recent non-tax regulation that
affects entry into municipal bond auctions.</jats:p>},
Doi = {10.1093/restud/rdac035},
Key = {fds343588}
}
@article{fds368297,
Author = {Eliason, PJ and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW},
Title = {Physicians as Owners and Agents-A Call for Further
Study.},
Journal = {Jama Internal Medicine},
Volume = {182},
Number = {12},
Pages = {1276-1277},
Year = {2022},
Month = {December},
Doi = {10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.5025},
Key = {fds368297}
}
@article{fds367602,
Author = {League, RJ and Eliason, P and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW and Wong,
H},
Title = {Assessment of Spending for Patients Initiating Dialysis
Care.},
Journal = {Jama Network Open},
Volume = {5},
Number = {10},
Pages = {e2239131},
Year = {2022},
Month = {October},
Abstract = {<h4>Importance</h4>Despite a widespread belief that private
insurers spend large amounts on health care for enrollees
receiving dialysis, data limitations over the past decade
have precluded a comprehensive analysis of the
topic.<h4>Objective</h4>To examine the amount and types of
increases in health care spending for privately insured
patients associated with initiating dialysis
care.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>A cohort
study covering calendar years 2012 to 2019 included patients
with kidney failure who had employer-sponsored insurance for
12 months following dialysis initiation. Data analysis was
performed from August 27, 2021, to August 18, 2022. The data
cover the entirety of the US and were obtained from the
Health Care Cost Institute. The data include all medical
claims for enrollees in employer-sponsored health insurance
plans offered by multiple major health care insurers within
the US. Participants included patients younger than 65 years
who were continuously enrolled in these plans in the 12
months before and after their first claim for dialysis care.
Patients also had to have nonmissing documented key
characteristics, such as sex, race and ethnicity, and health
characteristics.<h4>Exposures</h4>A claim for dialysis
care.<h4>Main outcomes and measures</h4>Out-of-pocket,
inpatient, outpatient, physician services, prescription
medication, and total health care spending. The hypothesis
tested was formulated before data collection.<h4>Results</h4>The
sample included 309 800 enrollee-months, which was a
balanced panel of 25 months for 12 392 enrollees. At
baseline, 7534 patients (61%) were male, 5415 (44%) were
aged 55 to 64 years, and patients had been enrolled with
their insurer for a mean of 30 months (95% CI, 29.9-30.1
months). In the 12 months before initiating dialysis care,
total monthly health care spending was $5025 per patient per
month (95% CI, $4945-$5106). Dialysis care initiation was
associated with an increase in total monthly spending of
$14 685 (95% CI, $14 413-$14 957). This increase
occurred across all spending categories (dialysis,
nondialysis outpatient, inpatient, physician services, and
prescription drugs). Monthly patient out-of-pocket spending
increased by $170 (95% CI, $162-$178). These spending
increases occurred abruptly, beginning about 2 months before
dialysis initiation, and remained increased for the
subsequent 12 months.<h4>Conclusions and relevance</h4>In
this cohort study, evidence that private insurers experience
significant, sustained increases in spending when patients
initiated dialysis was noted. The findings suggest that
proposed policies aimed at limiting the amount dialysis
facilities charge private insurers and the enrollees has the
potential to reduce health care spending in this high-cost
population.},
Doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39131},
Key = {fds367602}
}
@article{fds362441,
Author = {Bhattacharya, V and Ordin, A and Roberts, JW},
Title = {Bidding and Drilling under Uncertainty: An Empirical
Analysis of Contingent Payment Auctions},
Journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
Volume = {130},
Number = {5},
Pages = {1319-1363},
Year = {2022},
Month = {May},
Abstract = {Auctions are often used to sell assets whose future cash
flows require the winner to make postauction investments.
When winners’ payments are contingent on these cash flows,
auction design can influence both bidding and incentives to
exert effort after the auction. We propose a model of
contingent payment auctions that links auction design to
postauction economic activity. In the context of oil leases
in the Permian Basin, we show that moral hazard affects the
relative revenue ranking of different auction designs. Among
a large class of alternatives, the observed design cannot be
changed to increase both revenues and drilling
rates.},
Doi = {10.1086/718916},
Key = {fds362441}
}
@article{fds363228,
Author = {Cerullo, M and Yang, K and Joynt Maddox and KE and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW and Offodile, AC},
Title = {Association Between Hospital Private Equity Acquisition and
Outcomes of Acute Medical Conditions Among Medicare
Beneficiaries.},
Journal = {Jama Network Open},
Volume = {5},
Number = {4},
Pages = {e229581},
Year = {2022},
Month = {April},
Abstract = {<h4>Importance</h4>As private equity (PE) acquisitions of
short-term acute care hospitals (ACHs) continue, their
impact on the care of medically vulnerable older adults
remains largely unexplored.<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate
the association between PE acquisition of ACHs and access to
care, patient outcomes, and spending among Medicare
beneficiaries hospitalized with acute medical
conditions.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>This
cross-sectional study used a generalized
difference-in-differences approach to compare 21 091 222
patients admitted to PE-acquired vs non-PE-acquired
short-term ACHs between January 1, 2001, and December 31,
2018, at least 3 years before to 3 years after PE
acquisition. The analysis was conducted between December 28,
2020, and February 1, 2022. Differences were estimated using
both facility and hospital service area fixed effects. To
assess the robustness of findings, regressions were
reestimated after including fixed effects of patient county
of origin to account for geographic differences in
underlying health risks. Two subset analyses were also
conducted: (1) an analysis including only hospitals in
hospital referral regions with at least 1 PE acquisition and
(2) an analysis stratified by participation in the Hospital
Corporation of America 2006 acquisition. The study included
Medicare beneficiaries 66 years and older who were
hospitalized with 1 of 5 acute medical conditions: acute
myocardial infarction (AMI), acute stroke, chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation, congestive heart
failure exacerbation, and pneumonia.<h4>Exposures</h4>Acquisition
of hospitals by PE firms.<h4>Main outcomes and
measures</h4>Comorbidity burden (measured by Elixhauser
comorbidity score), hospital length of stay, in-hospital
mortality, 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, and 30-day
episode payments.<h4>Results</h4>Among 21 091 222 total
Medicare beneficiaries admitted to ACHs between 2001 and
2018, 20 431 486 patients received care at non-PE-acquired
hospitals, and 659 736 received care at PE-acquired
hospitals. Across all admissions, the mean (SD) age was
79.45 (7.95) years; 11 727 439 patients (55.6%) were
male, and 4 550 012 patients (21.6%) had dual insurance;
2 996 560 (14.2%) patients were members of racial or ethnic
minority groups, including 2 085 128 [9.9%] Black and 371
648 [1.8%] Hispanic; 18 094 662 patients (85.8%) were
White. Overall, 3 083 760 patients (14.6%) were hospitalized
with AMI, 2 835 777 (13.4%) with acute stroke, 3 674
477 (17.4%) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
exacerbation, 5 868 034 (27.8%) with congestive heart
failure exacerbation, and 5 629 174 (26.7%) with pneumonia.
Comorbidity burden decreased slightly among patients
admitted with acute stroke (difference, -0.04 SDs; 95% CI,
-0.004 to -0.07 SDs) at acquired hospitals compared with
nonacquired hospitals but was unchanged across the other 4
conditions. Among patients with AMI, a greater decrease in
in-hospital mortality was observed in PE-acquired hospitals
compared with non-PE-acquired hospitals (difference, -1.14
percentage points, 95% CI, -1.86 to -0.42 percentage
points). In addition, a greater decrease in 30-day mortality
(difference, -1.41 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.26 to -0.56
percentage points) was found at acquired vs nonacquired
hospitals. However, 30-day spending and readmission rates
remained unchanged across all conditions. The extent and
directionality of estimates were preserved across all
robustness assessments and subset analyses.<h4>Conclusions
and relevance</h4>In this cross-sectional study using a
difference-in-differences approach, PE acquisition had no
substantial association with the patient-level outcomes
examined, although it was associated with a moderate
improvement in mortality among Medicare beneficiaries
hospitalized with AMI.},
Doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9581},
Key = {fds363228}
}
@article{fds362155,
Author = {Li, S and Mazur, J and Park, Y and Roberts, J and Sweeting, A and Zhang,
J},
Title = {Repositioning and market power after airline
mergers},
Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics},
Volume = {53},
Number = {1},
Pages = {166-199},
Year = {2022},
Month = {March},
Abstract = {We estimate a model of route-level competition between
airlines who choose whether to offer nonstop or connecting
service before setting prices. Airlines have full
information about all quality, marginal cost, and fixed cost
unobservables throughout the game, so that service choices
will be selected on these residuals. We conduct merger
simulations that allow for repositioning and account for the
selection implied by the model and the data. Accounting for
selection materially affects the predicted likelihood of
repositioning and the predicted magnitude of post-merger
price changes, and it allows us to match what has been
observed after consummated mergers.},
Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12404},
Key = {fds362155}
}
@article{fds362341,
Author = {League, RJ and Eliason, P and McDevitt, RC and Roberts, JW and Wong,
H},
Title = {Variability in Prices Paid for Hemodialysis by
Employer-Sponsored Insurance in the US From 2012 to
2019.},
Journal = {Jama Network Open},
Volume = {5},
Number = {2},
Pages = {e220562},
Year = {2022},
Month = {February},
Doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.0562},
Key = {fds362341}
}
@article{fds361184,
Author = {Cerullo, M and Yang, KK and Roberts, J and McDevitt, RC and Offodile,
AC},
Title = {Private Equity Acquisition And Responsiveness To
Service-Line Profitability At Short-Term Acute Care
Hospitals.},
Journal = {Health Affairs},
Volume = {40},
Number = {11},
Pages = {1697-1705},
Year = {2021},
Month = {November},
Abstract = {As private equity firms continue to increase their ownership
stake in various health care sectors in the US, questions
arise about potential impacts on the organization and
delivery of care. Using a difference-in-differences
approach, we investigated changes in service-line provision
in private equity-acquired hospitals. Relative to
nonacquired hospitals, private equity acquisition was
associated with a higher probability of adding specific
profitable hospital-based services (interventional cardiac
catheterization, hemodialysis, and labor and delivery),
profitable technologies (robotic surgery and digital
mammography), and freestanding or satellite emergency
departments. Moreover, private equity acquisition was
associated with an increased probability of providing
services that were previously categorized as unprofitable
but that have more recently become areas of financial
opportunity (for example, mental health services). Finally,
private equity-acquired hospitals were less likely to add or
continue services that have unreliable revenue streams or
that may face competition from nonprofit hospitals (for
example, outpatient psychiatry), although fewer shifts were
noted among unprofitable services. This may reflect a
prevailing shift by acute care hospitals toward outpatient
settings for appropriate procedures and synergies with
existing holdings by private equity firms.},
Doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00541},
Key = {fds361184}
}
@article{fds325935,
Author = {Sweeting, A and Roberts, JW and Gedge, C},
Title = {A model of dynamic limit pricing with an application to the
airline industry},
Pages = {1148-1193},
Year = {2020},
Month = {March},
Abstract = {We develop a dynamic limit pricing model where an incumbent
repeatedly signals information relevant to a potential
entrant’s expected profitability. The model is tractable,
with a unique equilibrium under refinement, and dynamics
contribute to large equilibrium price changes. We show that
the model can explain why incumbent airlines cut prices
dramatically on routes threatened with entry by Southwest,
presenting new reduced-form evidence and a calibration that
predicts a pattern of price changes across markets similar
to the one observed in the data. We use our calibrated model
to quantify the welfare effects of asymmetric information
and subsidies designed to encourage Southwest’s
entry.},
Doi = {10.1086/704760},
Key = {fds325935}
}
@article{fds348895,
Author = {Eliason, PJ and Heebsh, B and McDevitt, RC and Roberts,
JW},
Title = {How Acquisitions Affect Firm Behavior and Performance:
Evidence from the Dialysis Industry},
Journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
Volume = {135},
Number = {1},
Pages = {221-267},
Year = {2020},
Month = {February},
Abstract = {Many industries have become increasingly concentrated
through mergers and acquisitions, which in health care may
have important consequences for spending and outcomes. Using
a rich panel of Medicare claims data for nearly one million
dialysis patients, we advance the literature on the effects
of mergers and acquisitions by studying the precise ways
providers change their behavior following an acquisition. We
base our empirical analysis on more than 1,200 acquisitions
of independent dialysis facilities by large chains over a
12-year period and find that chains transfer several
prominent strategies to the facilities they acquire. Most
notably, acquired facilities converge to the behavior of
their new parent companies by increasing patients' doses of
highly reimbursed drugs, replacing high-skill nurses with
less-skilled technicians, and waitlisting fewer patients for
kidney transplants. We then show that patients fare worse as
a result of these changes: outcomes such as hospitalizations
and mortality deteriorate, with our long panel allowing us
to identify these effects from within-facility or
within-patient variation around the acquisitions. Because
overall Medicare spending increases at acquired facilities,
mostly as a result of higher drug reimbursements, this
decline in quality corresponds to a decline in value for
payers. We conclude the article by considering the channels
through which acquisitions produce such large changes in
provider behavior and outcomes, finding that increased
market power cannot explain the decline in quality. Rather,
the adoption of the acquiring firm's strategies and
practices drives our main results, with greater economies of
scale for drug purchasing responsible for more than half of
the change in profits following an acquisition.},
Doi = {10.1093/qje/qjz034},
Key = {fds348895}
}
@article{fds352779,
Author = {Bayer, P and Geissler, C and Mangum, K and Roberts,
JW},
Title = {Speculators and middlemen: The strategy and performance of
investors in the housing market},
Pages = {5212-5247},
Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
Year = {2020},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {Using data from the Los Angeles area from 1988 to 2012, we
study the behavior and sources of returns of individual
investors in the housing market. We document the existence
of two distinct investor types. The first act as middlemen,
purchasing substantially below and reselling above market
prices throughout the cycle, improving liquidity and the
existing capital stock in the process. The second act as
speculators, who primarily enter during the boom, buying and
selling at essentially market prices. Neither type
anticipated the housing bust. We document similar behavior
by speculators and middlemen in 96 other U.S. metro
areas.},
Doi = {10.1093/RFS/HHAA042},
Key = {fds352779}
}
@article{fds325455,
Author = {Eliason, PJ and Grieco, PLE and McDevitt, RC and Roberts,
JW},
Title = {Strategic Patient Discharge: the Case of Long-Term Care
Hospitals.},
Pages = {3232-3265},
Year = {2018},
Month = {November},
Abstract = {Medicare's prospective payment system for long-term
acute-care hospitals (LTCHs) provides modest reimbursements
at the beginning of a patient's stay before jumping
discontinuously to a large lump-sum payment after a
prespecified number of days. We show that LTCHs respond to
the financial incentives of this system by
disproportionately discharging patients after they cross the
large-payment threshold. We find this occurs more often at
for-profit facilities, facilities acquired by leading LTCH
chains, and facilities colocated with other hospitals. Using
a dynamic structural model, we evaluate counterfactual
payment policies that would provide substantial savings for
Medicare.},
Doi = {10.1257/aer.20170092},
Key = {fds325455}
}
@article{fds343587,
Author = {Li, Y and Mazur, L and Park, Y and Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A and Zhang,
J},
Title = {Endogenous and Selective Service Choices after Airline
Mergers},
Year = {2018},
Month = {January},
Key = {fds343587}
}
@article{fds320614,
Author = {Bayer, P and Mangum, K and Roberts, JW},
Title = {Speculative Fever: Investor Contagion in the Housing
Bubble},
Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (Erid)},
Volume = {111},
Number = {211},
Pages = {51 pages},
Year = {2016},
Month = {February},
Abstract = {Historical anecdotes of new investors being drawn into a
booming asset market, only to suffer when the market turns,
abound. While the role of investor contagion in asset
bubbles has been explored extensively in the theoretical
literature, causal empirical evidence on the topic is
virtually non-existent. This paper studies the recent boom
and bust in the U.S. housing market, and establishes that
many novice investors entered the market as a direct result
of observing investing activity of multiple forms in their
own neighborhoods, and that “infected” investors
performed poorly relative to other investors along several
dimensions.},
Doi = {10.1257/AER.20171611},
Key = {fds320614}
}
@article{fds323213,
Author = {Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A},
Title = {Bailouts and the preservation of competition: The case of
the federal timber contract payment modification
act},
Journal = {American Economic Journal: Microeconomics},
Volume = {8},
Number = {3},
Pages = {257-288},
Publisher = {American Economic Association},
Year = {2016},
Month = {January},
Abstract = {We estimate the value of competition in United States Forest
Service (USFS) timber auctions, in the context of the Reagan
administration's bailout of firms that faced substantial
losses on existing contracts. We use a model with endogenous
entry by asymmetric firms, allowing survivors to respond to
the exit of bailed-out firms by entering more auctions and
for these marginal entrants to have lower values than firms
that would choose to enter in any event, a selective entry
effect. Observed asymmetries and selective entry contribute
to us finding that the bailout may have increased USFS
revenues in subsequent auctions quite substantially.},
Doi = {10.1257/mic.20150070},
Key = {fds323213}
}
@article{fds325777,
Author = {Bayer, PJ and Geissler, C and Mangum, K and Roberts,
JW},
Title = {Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of
Investors in the Housing Market},
Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (Erid) Working
Paper},
Number = {93},
Year = {2015},
Month = {January},
Key = {fds325777}
}
@article{fds325934,
Author = {Bhattacharya, V and Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A},
Title = {Regulating bidder participation in auctions},
Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics},
Volume = {45},
Number = {4},
Pages = {675-704},
Publisher = {WILEY},
Year = {2014},
Month = {December},
Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12067},
Key = {fds325934}
}
@article{fds285766,
Author = {Mcdevitt, RC and Roberts, JW},
Title = {Market structure and gender disparity in health care:
Preferences, competition, and quality of
care},
Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics},
Volume = {45},
Number = {1},
Pages = {116-139},
Publisher = {WILEY},
Year = {2014},
Month = {March},
ISSN = {0741-6261},
Abstract = {We consider the relationship between market structure and
health outcomes in a setting where patients have stark
preferences: urology patients disproportionately match with
a urologist of the same gender. In the United States,
however, fewer than 6% of urologists are women despite women
constituting 30% of patients. We explain a portion of this
disparity with a model of imperfect competition in which
urology groups strategically differentiate themselves by
employing female urologists. These strategic effects may
influence women's health, as markets without a female
urologist have a 7.3% higher death rate for female bladder
cancer, all else equal. © 2014, RAND.},
Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12044},
Key = {fds285766}
}
@article{fds285767,
Author = {Roberts, JW},
Title = {Unobserved heterogeneity and reserve prices in
auctions},
Journal = {The Rand Journal of Economics},
Volume = {44},
Number = {4},
Pages = {712-732},
Publisher = {WILEY},
Year = {2013},
Month = {December},
ISSN = {0741-6261},
Abstract = {This article shows how reserve prices can be used to control
for unobserved object heterogeneity to identify and estimate
the distribution of bidder values in auctions. Reserve
prices are assumed to be monotonic in the realization of
unobserved heterogeneity, but not necessarily set optimally.
The model is estimated using transaction prices from a used
car auction platform to show that the platform enables
sellers to capture a large fraction of the potential value
from selling their vehicle. Individual sellers benefit
mostly from access to a large set of buyers, but the
magnitude depends on accounting for unobserved
heterogeneity. © 2014, RAND.},
Doi = {10.1111/1756-2171.12038},
Key = {fds285767}
}
@article{fds285768,
Author = {Roberts, JW and Sweeting, A},
Title = {When Should Sellers Use Auctions?},
Journal = {American Economic Review},
Volume = {103},
Number = {5},
Pages = {1830-1861},
Publisher = {American Economic Association},
Year = {2013},
ISSN = {0002-8282},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000322878200009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92},
Abstract = {A bidding process can be organized so that offers are
submitted simultaneously or sequentially. In the latter
case, potential buyers can condition their behavior on
previous entrants' decisions. The relative performance of
these mechanisms is investigated when entry is costly and
selective, meaning that potential buyers with higher values
are more likely to participate. A simple sequential
mechanism can give both buyers and sellers significantly
higher payoffs than the commonly used simultaneous bid
auction. The findings are illustrated with parameters
estimated from simultaneous entry USFS timber auctions where
our estimates predict that the sequential mechanism would
increase revenue and efficiency.},
Doi = {10.1257/aer.103.5.1830},
Key = {fds285768}
}
%% Working Papers
@article{fds158824,
Author = {Ben Handel and Kanishka Misra and James W.
Roberts},
Title = {Robust Firm Pricing with Panel Data},
Year = {2009},
Month = {December},
Key = {fds158824}
}
@article{fds158821,
Author = {James W. Roberts},
Title = {Unobserved Heterogeneity and Reserve Prices in
Auctions},
Year = {2009},
Month = {November},
Key = {fds158821}
}
@article{fds164577,
Author = {J.W. Roberts and Ryan C. McDevitt},
Title = {Gender Disparity in Urology: Preferences, Competition and
Quality of Care},
Year = {2009},
Month = {October},
Key = {fds164577}
}
@article{fds158822,
Author = {James W. Roberts},
Title = {Can Warranties Substitute for Reputations?},
Year = {2009},
Month = {June},
Key = {fds158822}
}
@article{fds158825,
Author = {Seda Ertac and Ali Hortacsu and James W. Roberts},
Title = {Entry into Auctions: An Experimental Analysis},
Year = {2009},
Month = {June},
Key = {fds158825}
}