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| Publications of Arnaud Maurel :chronological alphabetical combined listing:%% Journal Articles @article{fds358335, Author = {Ashworth, J and Hotz, VJ and Maurel, A and Ransom, T}, Title = {Changes across cohorts in wage returns to schooling and early work experiences}, Journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, Year = {2021}, Month = {October}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/711851}, Abstract = {This paper investigates the wage returns to schooling and actual early work experiences and how these returns have changed over the past 20 years. Using the NLSY surveys, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of the joint schooling and work decisions that young men make in early adulthood and quantify how they affect wages using a generalized Mincerian specification. Our results highlight the need to account for dynamic selection and changes in composition when analyzing changes in wage returns. In particular, we find that ignoring the selectivity of accumulated work experiences results in overstatement of the returns to education.}, Doi = {10.1086/711851}, Key = {fds358335} } @article{fds358279, Author = {D'Haultfoeuille, X and Gaillac, C and Maurel, A}, Title = {Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests}, Journal = {Quantitative Economics}, Volume = {12}, Number = {3}, Pages = {817-842}, Publisher = {The Econometric Society}, Year = {2021}, Month = {July}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/qe1724}, Abstract = {<jats:p>In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched. We show that whether one can rationalize rational expectations is equivalent to the distribution of realizations being a mean‐preserving spread of the distribution of beliefs. The null hypothesis can then be rewritten as a system of many moment inequality and equality constraints, for which tests have been recently developed in the literature. The test is robust to measurement errors under some restrictions and can be extended to account for aggregate shocks. Finally, we apply our methodology to test for rational expectations about future earnings. While individuals tend to be right on average about their future earnings, our test strongly rejects rational expectations.</jats:p>}, Doi = {10.3982/qe1724}, Key = {fds358279} } @article{fds357216, Author = {Magnac, T and Maurel, A and Shum, M}, Title = {Introduction to the special issue on advances in structural microeconometrics}, Journal = {Annals of Economics and Statistics}, Volume = {142}, Number = {142}, Pages = {1-3}, Publisher = {GENES}, Year = {2021}, Month = {June}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.15609/ANNAECONSTAT2009.142.0001}, Doi = {10.15609/ANNAECONSTAT2009.142.0001}, Key = {fds357216} } @article{fds355895, Author = {Belzil, C and Maurel, A and Sidibé, M}, Title = {Estimating the Value of Higher Education Financial Aid: Evidence from a Field Experiment}, Journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, Volume = {39}, Number = {2}, Publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, Year = {2021}, Month = {February}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/710701}, Abstract = {Using data from a Canadian field experiment on financial barriers to higher education, we estimate the distribution of the value of financial aid for prospective students. We find that a considerable share of prospective students perceive significant credit constraints. Most individuals are willing to pay a sizable interest premium above the prevailing market rate for the option to take up a loan, with a median interest rate wedge equal to 6.8 percentage points for a $1,000 loan. The willingness to pay for financial aid is heterogeneous across students, with discount factors playing a key role in accounting for this variation.}, Doi = {10.1086/710701}, Key = {fds355895} } @article{fds358100, Author = {Khan, S and Maurel, A and Zhang, Y}, Title = {Informational Content of Factor Structures in Simultaneous Binary Response Models}, Year = {2021}, Month = {January}, Key = {fds358100} } @article{fds353525, Author = {Arcidiacono, P and Joseph Hotz and V and Maurel, A and Romano, T}, Title = {Ex ante returns and occupational choice}, Journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, Volume = {128}, Number = {12}, Pages = {4475-4522}, Year = {2020}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/710559}, Abstract = {Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations and provide evidence of sorting on expected gains. Finally, nonpecuniary factors play an important role, with a sizable share of individuals willing to give up substantial amounts of earnings by not choosing their highest-paying occupation.}, Doi = {10.1086/710559}, Key = {fds353525} } @article{fds352948, Author = {D’Haultfœuille, X and Maurel, A and Qiu, X and Zhang, Y}, Title = {Estimating selection models without an instrument with Stata}, Journal = {Stata Journal}, Volume = {20}, Number = {2}, Pages = {297-308}, Year = {2020}, Month = {June}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867X20930998}, Abstract = {In this article, we present the eqregsel command, which estimates and provides bootstrap inference for sample-selection models via extremal quantile regression. eqregsel estimates a semiparametric sample-selection model without an instrument or a large support regressor and outputs the point estimates of the homogeneous linear coefficients, their bootstrap standard errors, and the p-value for a specification test.}, Doi = {10.1177/1536867X20930998}, Key = {fds352948} } @article{fds346481, Author = {D'Haultfœuille, X and Maurel, A and Qiu, X and Zhang, Y}, Title = {Estimating Selection Models Without Instrument with Stata}, Journal = {IZA Discussion Paper}, Number = {12486}, Year = {2019}, Month = {July}, Key = {fds346481} } @article{fds346482, Author = {D'Haultfœuille, X and Maurel, A and Qiu, X and Zhang, Y}, Title = {Estimating Selection Models Without Instrument with Stata}, Year = {2019}, Month = {May}, Key = {fds346482} } @article{fds342518, Author = {Ashworth, J and Hotz, VJ and Maurel, A and Ransom, T}, Title = {Changes Across Cohorts in Wage Returns to Schooling and Early Work Experiences}, Year = {2018}, Month = {May}, Key = {fds342518} } @article{fds340633, Author = {Ashworth, J and Hotz, VJ and Maurel, A and Ransom, T}, Title = {Changes Across Cohorts in Wage Returns to Schooling and Early Work Experiences}, Year = {2017}, Month = {December}, Key = {fds340633} } @article{fds323959, Author = {Belzil, C and Maurel, A and Sidibe, M}, Title = {Estimating the Value of Higher Education Financial Aid: Evidence from a Field Experiment}, Number = {235}, Pages = {53 pages}, Year = {2016}, Month = {June}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/710701}, Abstract = {Using data from a Canadian field experiment designed to elicit risk and time preferences and quantify financial barriers to higher education, we estimate the distribution of the value of financial aid for prospective students, and relate it to parental socio-economic background, individual skills, risk and time preferences. Our results point to credit constraints affecting a sizable share of prospective students. We find that most of the individuals are willing to pay a sizable interest premium above the prevailing market rate for the option to take-up a loan, with a median interest rate wedge equal to 6.6 percentage points for a $1,000 loan. The willingness-to-pay for financial aid is also highly heterogeneous across students, with preferences, in particular discount factors, playing a key role in accounting for this variation.}, Doi = {10.1086/710701}, Key = {fds323959} } @article{fds320602, Author = {Arcidiacono, P and Aucejo, E and Maurel, AP and Ransom, T}, Title = {College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation}, Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID)}, Number = {222}, Pages = {69 pages}, Year = {2016}, Month = {May}, Abstract = {This paper investigates the role played by informational frictions in college and the workplace. We estimate a dynamic structural model of schooling and work decisions, where individuals have imperfect information about their schooling ability and labor market productivity. We take into account the heterogeneity in schooling investments by distinguishing between two- and four-year colleges, graduate school, as well as science and non-science majors for four-year colleges. Individuals may also choose whether to work full-time, part-time, or not at all. A key feature of our approach is to account for correlated learning through college grades and wages, whereby individuals may leave or re-enter college as a result of the arrival of new information on their ability and productivity. Our findings indicate that the elimination of informational frictions would increase the college graduation rate by 9 percentage points, and would increase the college wage premium by 32.7 percentage points through increased sorting on ability.}, Key = {fds320602} } @article{fds318181, Author = {Maurel, AP and Altonji, J and Arcidiacono, P}, Title = {The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects}, Journal = {In Handbook of the Economics of Education}, Volume = {5}, Pages = {305-396}, Booktitle = {Handbook of the Economics of Education}, Editor = {Hanushek, E and Machin, S and Woessmann, L}, Year = {2016}, ISBN = {9780444634597}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-63459-7.00007-5}, Abstract = {As the workforce has become more educated, educational decisions are about what type of education to pursue as well as how much to pursue. In college, individuals somewhat specialize through their choice of college major. Further specialization occurs in graduate school. This chapter investigates how majors and graduate school affect labor market outcomes, as well as how individuals make these potentially important decisions. To do so, we develop a dynamic model of educational decision-making. In light of the model, we examine the estimation issues associated with obtaining causal effects of educational choices on earnings. We then examine ways that authors have overcome the selection problem, as well as the approaches authors have taken to estimate the process by which these educational decisions are made. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.}, Doi = {10.1016/B978-0-444-63459-7.00007-5}, Key = {fds318181} } @article{fds359882, Author = {Maurel, A}, Title = {Quels sont les déterminants des choix d'orientation dans l'enseignement supérieur?}, Journal = {Reflets et Perspectives de la Vie Economique}, Volume = {16}, Number = {1}, Pages = {69-79}, Year = {2015}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/rce.016.0069}, Abstract = {Students who enroll in post-secondary education have to make a number of choices, such as which type of college or which major to attend, with important implications regarding their future earnings and career prospects. It is crucial, especially from a policy standpoint, to try and understand how those decisions are made. Economic research on this question has focused on the key role of preferences and abilities for different fields of study, as well as on the importance of imperfect information and the effect of parental income on these choices.}, Doi = {10.3917/rce.016.0069}, Key = {fds359882} } @article{fds333801, Author = {Arcidiacono, P and Hotz, VJ and Maurel, A and Romano, T}, Title = {Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations Using Subjective Expectations Data}, Year = {2014}, Month = {October}, Key = {fds333801} } @article{fds320603, Author = {Arcidiacono, P and Hotz, V and Maurel, A and Romano, T}, Title = {Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations Using Subjective Expectations Data}, Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper}, Number = {178}, Year = {2014}, Month = {October}, Abstract = {We show that data on subjective expectations, especially on outcomes from counterfactual choices and choice probabilities, are a powerful tool in recovering ex ante treatment effects as well as preferences for different treatments. In this paper we focus on the choice of occupation, and use elicited beliefs from a sample of male undergraduates at Duke University. By asking individuals about potential earnings associated with counterfactual choices of college majors and occupations, we can recover the distribution of the ex ante monetary returns to particular occupations, and how these returns vary across majors. We then propose a model of occupational choice which allows us to link subjective data on earnings and choice probabilities with the non-pecuniary preferences for each occupation. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations, and substantial heterogeneity across individuals in the corresponding ex ante returns. However, while sorting across occupations is partly driven by the ex ante monetary returns, non-monetary factors play a key role in this decision. Finally, our results point to the existence of sizable complementarities between college major and occupations, both in terms of earnings and non-monetary benefits.}, Key = {fds320603} } @article{fds320604, Author = {D'Haultfœuille, X and Maurel, AP and Zhang, Y}, Title = {Extremal Quantile Regressions for Selection Models and the Black-White Wage Gap}, Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID)}, Volume = {203}, Number = {177}, Pages = {66 pages}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2014}, Month = {June}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.004}, Abstract = {We consider the estimation of a semiparametric location-scale model subject to endogenous selection, in the absence of an instrument or a large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. In this context, we propose a simple estimator, which combines extremal quantile regressions with minimum distance. We establish the asymptotic normality of this estimator by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the black-white wage gap among males from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. We find that premarket factors such as AFQT and family background characteristics play a key role in explaining the level and evolution of the black-white wage gap.}, Doi = {10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.004}, Key = {fds320604} } @article{fds320605, Author = {Clark, B and Joubert, C and Maurel, AP}, Title = {The Career Prospects of Overeducated Americans}, Journal = {Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID)}, Volume = {6}, Number = {176}, Pages = {48 pages}, Publisher = {Springer Nature}, Year = {2014}, Month = {May}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40172-017-0053-4}, Abstract = {In this paper we analyze career dynamics for the large share of U.S. workers who have more schooling than their peers in the same occupation. We use data from the NLSY79 combined with the CPS to analyze transitions into and out of overeducated employment, together with the corresponding effects on wages. Overeducation is a fairly persistent phenomenon at the aggregate and individual levels, with 66% of workers remaining overeducated after one year. Overeducation is not only more common, but also more persistent among blacks and low-AFQT individuals. Further, the hazard rate out of overeducation drops by about 60% during the first 5 years spent overeducated. However, the estimation of a mixed proportional hazard model suggests that this is attributable to selection on unobservables rather than true duration dependence. Finally, overeducation is associated with lower current as well as future wages, which points to the existence of scarring effects.}, Doi = {10.1186/s40172-017-0053-4}, Key = {fds320605} } @article{fds294361, Author = {D'Haultfœuille, X and Maurel, A}, Title = {Inference on an extended Roy model, with an application to schooling decisions in France}, Journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, Volume = {174}, Number = {2}, Pages = {95-106}, Year = {2013}, ISSN = {0304-4076}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.01.005}, Abstract = {This paper considers the identification and estimation of an extension of Roy's model (1951) of sectoral choice, which includes a non-pecuniary component in the selection equation and allows for uncertainty on potential earnings. We focus on the identification of the non-pecuniary component, which is key to disentangling the relative importance of monetary incentives versus preferences in the context of sorting across sectors. By making the most of the structure of the selection equation, we show that this component is point identified from the knowledge of the covariate effects on earnings, as soon as one covariate is continuous. Notably, and in contrast to most results on the identification of Roy models, this implies that identification can be achieved without any exclusion restriction nor large support condition on the covariates. As a by-product, bounds are obtained on the distribution of the ex ante monetary returns. We propose a three-stage semiparametric estimation procedure for this model, which yields root-n consistent and asymptotically normal estimators. Finally, we apply our results to the educational context, by providing new evidence from French data that non-pecuniary factors are a key determinant of higher education attendance decisions. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, Doi = {10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.01.005}, Key = {fds294361} } @article{fds294362, Author = {D'Haultfoeuille, X and Maurel, A}, Title = {Another look at the identification at infinity of sample selection models}, Journal = {Econometric Theory}, Volume = {29}, Number = {1}, Pages = {213-224}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2013}, ISSN = {0266-4666}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S026646661200028X}, Abstract = {It is often believed that without instruments, endogenous sample selection models are identified only if a covariate with a large support is available (see, e.g., Chamberlain, 1986, Journal of Econometrics 32, 189-218; Lewbel, 2007, Journal of Econometrics141, 777-806). We propose a new identification strategy mainly based on the condition that the selection variable becomes independent of the covariates for large values of the outcome. No large support on the covariates is required. Moreover, we prove that this condition is testable. We finally show that our strategy can be applied to the identification of generalized Roy models. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.}, Doi = {10.1017/S026646661200028X}, Key = {fds294362} } @article{fds294365, Author = {Buscha, F and Maurel, A and Page, L and Speckesser, S}, Title = {The Effect of Employment while in High School on Educational Attainment: A Conditional Difference-in-Differences Approach}, Journal = {Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics}, Volume = {74}, Number = {3}, Pages = {380-396}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2012}, Month = {June}, ISSN = {0305-9049}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00650.x}, Abstract = {Using American panel data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, this article investigates the effect of working during grade 12 on attainment. We employ, for the first time in the related literature, a semiparametric propensity score matching approach combined with difference-in-differences. We address selection on both observables and unobservables associated with part-time work decisions, without the need for instrumental variable. Once such factors are controlled for, little to no effects on reading and math scores are found. Overall, our results therefore suggest a negligible academic cost from part-time working by the end of high school. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00650.x}, Key = {fds294365} } @article{fds294363, Author = {Beffy, M and Fougère, D and Maurel, A}, Title = {Choosing the field of study in postsecondary education: Do expected earnings matter?}, Journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics}, Volume = {94}, Number = {1}, Pages = {334-347}, Publisher = {MIT Press - Journals}, Year = {2012}, ISSN = {0034-6535}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00212}, Abstract = {This paper examines the determinants of the choice of the college major when the length of studies and future earnings are uncertain. We estimate a three-stage schooling decision model, focusing on the effect of expected earnings on major choice. We control for dynamic selection through the use of mixture distributions. Exploiting variations across the French business cycle in the relative returns to the majors, our results yield a very low, though significant, elasticity of major choice to expected earnings. This suggests that at least for the French university context, nonpecuniary factors are a key determinant of schooling choices. © 2011 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.}, Doi = {10.1162/REST_a_00212}, Key = {fds294363} } @article{fds294364, Author = {Beffy, M and Fougère, D and Maurel, A}, Title = {L'impact du travail salarié des étudiants sur la réussite et la poursuite des études universitaires}, Journal = {Economie et Statistique}, Volume = {422}, Number = {422}, Pages = {31-50}, Publisher = {PERSEE Program}, Year = {2009}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0336-1454}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/estat.2009.8017}, Doi = {10.3406/estat.2009.8017}, Key = {fds294364} } %% Chapters in Books @misc{fds340431, Author = {Altonji, JG and Arcidiacono, P and Maurel, A}, Title = {The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School. Determinants and Wage Effects}, Volume = {5}, Pages = {305-396}, Booktitle = {Handbook of the Economics of Education}, Publisher = {Elsevier}, Year = {2016}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9780444634597}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-63459-7.00007-5}, Abstract = {As the workforce has become more educated, educational decisions are about what type of education to pursue as well as how much to pursue. In college, individuals somewhat specialize through their choice of college major. Further specialization occurs in graduate school. This chapter investigates how majors and graduate school affect labor market outcomes, as well as how individuals make these potentially important decisions. To do so, we develop a dynamic model of educational decision-making. In light of the model, we examine the estimation issues associated with obtaining causal effects of educational choices on earnings. We then examine ways that authors have overcome the selection problem, as well as the approaches authors have taken to estimate the process by which these educational decisions are made. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.}, Doi = {10.1016/B978-0-444-63459-7.00007-5}, Key = {fds340431} } | |
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