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| Publications of Ravi Bansal :chronological alphabetical by type listing:%% @article{fds363001, Author = {Bansal, R and Wu, DA and Yaron, A}, Title = {Socially Responsible Investing in Good and Bad Times}, Journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, Volume = {35}, Number = {4}, Pages = {2067-2099}, Year = {2022}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab072}, Abstract = {We investigate the time variability of abnormal returns from socially responsible investing (SRI). Using portfolio regressions and event studies on multiple data sources, including analyst ratings, firm announcements, and realized incidents, we find that highly rated SRI stocks outperform lowly rated SRI stocks during good economic times, for example, periods with high market valuations or aggregate consumption, but underperform during bad times, such as recessions. This variation in abnormal returns of high-SR stocks vis-à-vis low SR stocks is consistent with a wealth-dependent investor preference for SR stocks that leads to an increased (decreased) demand for SRI during good (bad) times.}, Doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhab072}, Key = {fds363001} } @article{fds357940, Author = {Bansal, R and Miller, S and Song, D and Yaron, A}, Title = {The term structure of equity risk premia}, Journal = {Journal of Financial Economics}, Volume = {142}, Number = {3}, Pages = {1209-1228}, Year = {2021}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.043}, Abstract = {We estimate a regime-switching model for the equity term structure with Bayesian methods. Our approach accounts for the data sample being unrepresentative of the population distribution of regimes. We find that (i) the term structure of expected equity dividend strip returns is downward sloping in recessions and upward sloping in expansions, and (ii) the unconditional term structure of expected equity returns is positively sloped. Our estimation shows that the sample unrepresentativeness induces a downward bias in the estimate of the equity term structure slope. We present a regime-switching consumption-based asset-pricing model that matches the empirical findings.}, Doi = {10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.043}, Key = {fds357940} } @article{fds339265, Author = {Ai, H and Bansal, R}, Title = {Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium}, Journal = {Econometrica}, Volume = {86}, Number = {4}, Pages = {1383-1430}, Publisher = {The Econometric Society}, Year = {2018}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14607}, Abstract = {This paper develops a revealed preference theory for the equity premium around macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre-scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report and the FOMC statements, account for 55% of the market equity premium. We provide a characterization theorem for the set of intertemporal preferences that generates a nonnegative announcement premium. Our theory establishes that the announcement premium identifies a significant deviation from time-separable expected utility and provides asset-market-based evidence for a large class of non-expected utility models. We also provide conditions under which asset prices may rise prior to some macroeconomic announcements and exhibit a pre-announcement drift.}, Doi = {10.3982/ECTA14607}, Key = {fds339265} } @article{fds322707, Author = {Bansal, R and Kiku, D and Yaron, A}, Title = {Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation}, Pages = {52-69}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2016}, Month = {September}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.07.003}, Abstract = {The discrepancy between the decision and data-sampling intervals, known as time aggregation, confounds the identification of long-, short-run growth, and volatility risks in asset prices. This paper develops a method to simultaneously estimate the model parameters and the decision interval of the agent by exploiting identifying restrictions of the Long Run Risk (LRR) model that account for time aggregation. The LRR model finds considerable empirical support in the data; the estimated decision interval of the agents is 33 days. Our estimation results establish that long-run growth and volatility risks are important for asset prices.}, Doi = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.07.003}, Key = {fds322707} } @article{fds266063, Author = {Bansal, R and Kiku, D and Shaliastovich, I and Yaron, A}, Title = {Volatility, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices}, Journal = {Journal of Finance}, Volume = {69}, Number = {6}, Pages = {2471-2511}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2014}, Month = {December}, ISSN = {0022-1082}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12110}, Abstract = {How important are volatility fluctuations for asset prices and the macroeconomy? We find that an increase in macroeconomic volatility is associated with an increase in discount rates and a decline in consumption. We develop a framework in which cash flow, discount rate, and volatility risks determine risk premia and show that volatility plays a significant role in explaining the joint dynamics of returns to human capital and equity. Volatility risk carries a sizable positive risk premium and helps account for the cross section of expected returns. Our evidence demonstrates that volatility is important for understanding expected returns and macroeconomic fluctuations.}, Doi = {10.1111/jofi.12110}, Key = {fds266063} } @article{fds266084, Author = {Bansal, R and Shaliastovich, I}, Title = {A long-run risks explanation of predictability puzzles in bond and currency markets}, Journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, Volume = {26}, Number = {1}, Pages = {1-33}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2013}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0893-9454}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhs108}, Abstract = {We show that bond risk premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a long-run risks model with timevarying volatilities of expected growth and inflation. The model simultaneously accounts for bond return predictability and violations of uncovered interest parity in currency markets. We find that preference for early resolution of uncertainty, time-varying volatilities, and non-neutral effects of inflation on growth are important to account for these aspects of asset markets. © 2012 The Author.}, Doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhs108}, Key = {fds266084} } @article{fds311136, Author = {Bansal, R and Kiku, D and Yaron, A}, Title = {An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices}, Volume = {1}, Number = {1}, Pages = {183-221}, Year = {2012}, Month = {January}, Abstract = {We provide an empirical evaluation of the Long-Run Risks (LRR) model, and highlight important differences in the asset pricing implications of the LRR model relative to the habit model. We feature three key results: (i) consistent with the LRR model there is considerable evidence in the data for time-varying expected consumption growth and consumption volatility, (ii) the LRR model matches the key asset markets data features, (iii) in the data and in the LRR model accordingly, lagged consumption growth does not predict the future price-dividend ratio, while in the habit-model it counterfactually predicts the future price-dividend with an <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup> of over 40%. Overall, we find considerable empirical support for the LRR model.}, Key = {fds311136} } @article{fds266082, Author = {Bansal, R and Shaliastovich, I}, Title = {Learning and asset-price jumps}, Journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, Volume = {24}, Number = {8}, Pages = {2738-2780}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2011}, Month = {August}, ISSN = {0893-9454}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr023}, Abstract = {We develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth but asset prices contain large moves (jumps). These large price jumps are triggered by optimal decisions of investors to learn the unobserved state. We show that learning choice is determined by preference parameters and the conditional volatility of income process. An important model prediction is that income volatility predicts future jump periods, while income growth does not. Consistent with the model, large moves in returns in the data are predicted by consumption volatility but not by consumption growth. © 2011 The Authors.}, Doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhr023}, Key = {fds266082} } @article{fds266083, Author = {Bansal, R and Kiku, D}, Title = {Cointegration and long-run asset allocation}, Journal = {Journal of Business and Economic Statistics}, Volume = {29}, Number = {1}, Pages = {161-173}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2011}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0735-0015}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2010.08062}, Abstract = {We show that economic restrictions of cointegration between asset cash flows and aggregate consumption have important implications for return dynamics and optimal portfolio rules, particularly at long investment horizons. When cash flows and consumption share a common stochastic trend (i.e., are cointegrated), temporary deviations between their levels forecast long-horizon dividend growth rates and returns, and consequently, alter the term profile of risks and expected returns. We show that the optimal asset allocation based on the error-correction vector autoregression (EC-VAR) specification can be quite different relative to a traditional VAR that ignores the cointegrating relation. Unlike the EC-VAR, the commonly used VAR approach to model expected returns focuses on short-run forecasts and can considerably miss on long-horizon return dynamics, and hence, the optimal portfolio mix in the presence of cointegration. We develop and implement methods to account for parameter uncertainty in the EC-VAR setup and highlight the importance of the error-correction channel for optimal portfolio decisions at various investment horizons. © 2011 American Statistical Association.}, Doi = {10.1198/jbes.2010.08062}, Key = {fds266083} } @article{fds266080, Author = {Bansal, R and Shaliastovich, I}, Title = {Confidence risk and asset prices}, Journal = {American Economic Review}, Volume = {100}, Number = {2}, Pages = {537-541}, Publisher = {American Economic Association}, Year = {2010}, Month = {May}, ISSN = {0002-8282}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10161/3297 Duke open access}, Doi = {10.1257/aer.100.2.537}, Key = {fds266080} } @article{fds266081, Author = {Bansal, R and Kiku, D and Yaron, A}, Title = {Long run risks, the macroeconomy, and asset prices}, Journal = {American Economic Review}, Volume = {100}, Number = {2}, Pages = {542-546}, Publisher = {American Economic Association}, Year = {2010}, Month = {May}, ISSN = {0002-8282}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10161/3374 Duke open access}, Doi = {10.1257/aer.100.2.542}, Key = {fds266081} } @article{fds266079, Author = {Bansal, R and Dittmar, R and Kiku, D}, Title = {Cointegration and consumption risks in asset returns}, Journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, Volume = {22}, Number = {3}, Pages = {1343-1375}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2009}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0893-9454}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhm085}, Abstract = {We argue that the cointegrating relation between dividends and consumption, a measure of long-run consumption risks, is a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks disappear, and the asset's beta is dominated by long-run consumption risks. We show that the return betas, derived from the cointegration-based VAR (EC-VAR) model, successfully account for the cross-sectional variation in equity returns at both short and long horizons; however, this is not the case when the cointegrating restriction is ignored. Our evidence highlights the importance of cointegration-based long-run consumption risks for financial markets.}, Doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhm085}, Key = {fds266079} } @article{fds266064, Author = {Bansal, R}, Title = {Long-Run Risks and Risk Compensation in Equity Markets}, Pages = {167-193}, Publisher = {Elsevier}, Year = {2008}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450899-7.50009-9}, Doi = {10.1016/B978-044450899-7.50009-9}, Key = {fds266064} } @article{fds266078, Author = {Bansal, R}, Title = {Long-run risks and financial markets}, Journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review}, Volume = {89}, Number = {4}, Pages = {283-299}, Year = {2007}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0014-9187}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/r.89.283-300}, Abstract = {The recently developed long-run risks asset pricing model shows that concerns about long-run expected growth and time-varying uncertainty (i.e., volatility) about future economic prospects drive asset prices. These two channels of economic risks can account for the risk premia and asset price fluctuations. In addition, the model can empirically account for the cross-sectional differences in asset returns. Hence, the long-run risks model provides a coherent and systematic framework for analyzing financial markets. (JEL G0, G00, G1, G10, G12) © 2007, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.}, Doi = {10.20955/r.89.283-300}, Key = {fds266078} } @article{fds266077, Author = {Bansal, R and Gallant, AR and Tauchen, G}, Title = {Rational pessimism, rational exuberance, and asset pricing models}, Journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, Volume = {74}, Number = {4}, Pages = {1005-1033}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2007}, ISSN = {0034-6527}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00454.x}, Abstract = {The paper estimates and examines the empirical plausibility of asset pricing models that attempt to explain features of financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron, low-frequency movements, and time-varying uncertainty in aggregate consumption growth are the key channels for understanding asset prices. In another, as typified by Campbell and Cochrane, habit formation, which generates time-varying risk aversion and consequently time variation in risk premia, is the key channel. These models are fitted to data using simulation estimators. Both models are found to fit the data equally well at conventional significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further, scrutiny using a rich array of diagnostics suggests that the LRR model is preferred. © 2007 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00454.x}, Key = {fds266077} } @misc{fds266062, Author = {Bansal, R}, Title = {Long Run Risks and Risk Compensation in Equity Market}, Booktitle = {Handbook of Investments: Equity Risk Premium}, Publisher = {North Holland}, Editor = {Mehra, R}, Year = {2006}, Key = {fds266062} } @article{fds266075, Author = {Bansal, R and Dittmar, RF and Lundblad, CT}, Title = {Consumption, dividends, and the cross section of equity returns}, Journal = {Journal of Finance}, Volume = {60}, Number = {4}, Pages = {1639-1672}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2005}, Month = {August}, ISSN = {0022-1082}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00776.x}, Abstract = {We show that aggregate consumption risks embodied in cash flows can account for the puzzling differences in risk premia across book-to-market, momentum, and size-sorted portfolios. The dynamics of aggregate consumption and cash flow growth rates, modeled as a vector autoregression, are used to measure the consumption beta of discounted cash flows. Differences in these cash flow betas account for more than 60% of the cross-sectional variation in risk premia. The market price for risk in cash flows is highly significant. We argue that cash flow risk is important for interpreting differences in risk compensation across assets.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00776.x}, Key = {fds266075} } @article{fds266076, Author = {Bansal, R and Khatchatrian, V and Yaron, A}, Title = {Interpretable asset markets?}, Journal = {European Economic Review}, Volume = {49}, Number = {3}, Pages = {531-560}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2005}, Month = {April}, ISSN = {0014-2921}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2004.09.002}, Abstract = {In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Further we document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises-that is, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty. Moreover, future earnings growth rates are sharply predicted by current price-earnings ratios. It seems that much of the variation in asset prices can be attributed to fluctuations in economic uncertainty and expected cash-flow growth. This empirical evidence is consistent with the implications of existing parametric general equilibrium models. Hence, the channels of fluctuating economic uncertainty and expected growth seem important for interpreting asset markets. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, Doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2004.09.002}, Key = {fds266076} } @article{fds266072, Author = {Bansal, R and Tauchen, G and Zhou, H}, Title = {Regime shifts, risk premiums in the term structure, and the business cycle}, Journal = {Journal of Business and Economic Statistics}, Volume = {22}, Number = {4}, Pages = {396-409}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2004}, Month = {October}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/073500104000000398}, Abstract = {Recent evidence indicates that using multiple forward rates sharply predicts future excess returns on U.S. Treasury Bonds, with the R2's being around 30%. The projection coefficients in these regressions exhibit a distinct pattern that relates to the maturity of the forward rate. These dimensions of the data, in conjunction with the transition dynamics of bond yields, offer a serious challenge to term structure models. In this article we show that a regime-shifting term structure model can empirically account for these challenging data features. Alternative models, such as affine specification, fail to account for these important features. We find that regimes in the model are intimately related to bond risk premia and real business cycles.}, Doi = {10.1198/073500104000000398}, Key = {fds266072} } @article{fds266074, Author = {Bansal, R and Yaron, A}, Title = {Risks for the long run: A potential resolution of asset pricing puzzles}, Journal = {Journal of Finance}, Volume = {59}, Number = {4}, Pages = {1481-1509}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2004}, Month = {August}, ISSN = {0022-1082}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00670.x}, Abstract = {We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (1) a small longrun predictable component, and (2) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin's (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better long-run growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the risk-free rate, and the volatility of the market return, risk-free rate, and the price-dividend ratio, As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is time-varying.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00670.x}, Key = {fds266074} } @article{fds266073, Author = {Bansal, R and Christiano, L and Mendoza, EG}, Title = {Introduction: Macroeconomic implications of capital flows in a global economy}, Journal = {Journal of Economic Theory}, Volume = {119}, Number = {1 SPEC. ISS.}, Pages = {1-5}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2004}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2004.07.002}, Abstract = {The papers in this volume address issues raised by the wave of financial crises that hit emerging markets since the mid 1990s. Several of the papers examine the role that different credit market frictions may have played in triggering the crises, or in determining the effects of policies aimed at containing them. Other papers ask more general questions about the implications of international financial integration for business cycles, risk sharing, and sovereign lending. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.}, Doi = {10.1016/j.jet.2004.07.002}, Key = {fds266073} } @article{fds266070, Author = {Bansal, R and Lundblad, C}, Title = {Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets}, Journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, Volume = {109}, Number = {2}, Pages = {195-237}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2002}, Month = {August}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00067-2}, Abstract = {An important economic insight is that observed equity prices must equal the present value of the cash flows associated with the equity claim. An implication of this insight is that present values of cash flows must also quantitatively justify the observed volatility and cross-correlations of asset returns. In this paper, we show that parametric economic models for present values can indeed account for the observed high ex post return volatility and cross-correlation observed across five major equity markets - the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, and Japan. We present evidence that cash flow growth rates contain a small predictable long-run component; this feature, in conjunction with time-varying systematic risk, can justify key empirical characteristics of observed equity prices. Our model also has direct implications for the level of equity prices and specific versions of the model can, in many cases, capture observed price levels. Our evidence suggests that the ex ante risk premium on the global market portfolio has dropped considerably - we show that this fall in the risk premium is related to a decline in the conditional variance of global real cash flow growth rates. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.}, Doi = {10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00067-2}, Key = {fds266070} } @article{fds266071, Author = {Bansal, R and Zhou, H}, Title = {Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts}, Journal = {Journal of Finance}, Volume = {57}, Number = {5}, Pages = {1997-2043}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2002}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00487}, Abstract = {We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well-documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles.}, Doi = {10.1111/0022-1082.00487}, Key = {fds266071} } @article{fds266069, Author = {Bansal, R and Dahlquist, M}, Title = {The forward premium puzzle: Different tales from developed and emerging economies}, Journal = {Journal of International Economics}, Volume = {51}, Number = {1}, Pages = {115-144}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2000}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(99)00039-2}, Abstract = {In this paper we document new results regarding the forward premium puzzle. The often found negative correlation between the expected currency depreciation and interest rate differential is, contrary to popular belief, not a pervasive phenomenon. It is confined to developed economies, and here only to states where the U.S. interest rate exceeds foreign interest rates. Furthermore, we find that differences across economies are systematically related to per capita GNP, average inflation rates, and inflation volatility. Our empirical work suggests that it is hard to justify the cross-sectional differences in the risk premia as compensation for systematic risk. Instead, country-specific attributes seem to be important in characterizing the cross-sectional dispersion in the risk premia. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.}, Doi = {10.1016/S0022-1996(99)00039-2}, Key = {fds266069} } @article{fds266065, Author = {Bansal, R and Lehmann, BN}, Title = {Growth-optimal portfolio restrictions on asset pricing models}, Journal = {Macroeconomic Dynamics}, Volume = {1}, Number = {2}, Pages = {333-354}, Year = {1997}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {1365-1005}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100597003039}, Abstract = {We show that absence of arbitrage in frictionless markets implies a lower bound on the average of the logarithm of the reciprocal of the stochastic discount factor implicit in asset pricing models. The greatest lower bound for a given asset menu is the average continuously compounded return on its growth-optimal portfolio. We use this bound to evaluate the plausibility of various parametric asset pricing models to characterize financial market puzzles such as the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle. We show that the insights offered by the growth-optimal bounds differ substantially from those obtained by other nonparametric bounds.}, Doi = {10.1017/s1365100597003039}, Key = {fds266065} } @article{fds266068, Author = {Bansal, R}, Title = {An exploration of the forward premium puzzle in currency markets}, Journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, Volume = {10}, Number = {2}, Pages = {369-403}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {1997}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/10.2.369}, Abstract = {A standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials across countries are negatively related, implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violated in the data. This article provides new empirical evidence that suggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity, and its economic implications, depend on the sign of the interest rate differential A framework related to term structure models is developed to account for the puzzling relationship between expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials. Estimation results suggest that a particular term structure model can account for the puzzling empirical evidence.}, Doi = {10.1093/rfs/10.2.369}, Key = {fds266068} } @misc{fds266061, Author = {Bansal, R}, Title = {Growth-Optimal Portfolio Restrictions on Asset Pricing Model}, Volume = {1}, Pages = {333-354}, Booktitle = {Macroeconomic Dynamics}, Year = {1997}, Key = {fds266061} } @article{fds266066, Author = {Bansal, R and Coleman, WJ}, Title = {A monetary explanation of the equity premium, term premium, and risk-free rate puzzles}, Journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, Volume = {104}, Number = {6}, Pages = {1135-1171}, Publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, Year = {1996}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/262056}, Abstract = {This paper develops and estimates a monetary model that offers an explanation of some puzzling features of observed returns on equities and default-free bonds. The key feature of the model is that some assets other than money play a special role in facilitating transactions, which affects the rate of return that they offer. The model is capable of producing a low risk-free rate, a high equity premium, and an average positive relationship between maturity and term premium for default-free bonds. The model's implications for the joint distribution of asset returns, velocity, inflation, money growth, and consumption growth are also compared to the behavior of these variables in the U.S. economy.}, Doi = {10.1086/262056}, Key = {fds266066} } @article{fds266067, Author = {Bansal, R and Gallant, AR and Hussey, R and Tauchen, G}, Title = {Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data}, Journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, Volume = {66}, Number = {1-2}, Pages = {251-287}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {1995}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0304-4076}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10161/1902 Duke open access}, Abstract = {Empirical modeling of high-frequency currency market data reveals substantial evidence for nonnormality, stochastic volatility, and other nonlinearities. This paper investigates whether an equilibrium monetary model can account for nonlinearities in weekly data. The model incorporates time-nonseparable preferences and a transaction cost technology. Simulated sample paths are generated using Marcet's parameterized expectations procedure. The paper also develops a new method for estimation of structural economic models. The method forces the model to match (under a GMM criterion) the score function of a nonparametric estimate of the conditional density of observed data. The estimation uses weekly U.S.-German currency market data, 1975-90. © 1995.}, Doi = {10.1016/0304-4076(94)01618-A}, Key = {fds266067} } @misc{fds266060, Author = {Bansal, R}, Title = {Computational Aspects of Nonparametric Simulation Estimation}, Publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers}, Editor = {Belsley, D}, Year = {1994}, Key = {fds266060} } @article{fds311138, Author = {BANSAL, R and VISWANATHAN, S}, Title = {No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach}, Journal = {The Journal of Finance}, Volume = {48}, Number = {4}, Pages = {1231-1262}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {1993}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0022-1082}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:A1993MB51200005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {We argue that arbitrage‐pricing theories (APT) imply the existence of a low‐dimensional nonnegative nonlinear pricing kernel. In contrast to standard constructs of the APT, we do not assume a linear factor structure on the payoffs. This allows us to price both primitive and derivative securities. Semi‐nonparametric techniques are used to estimate the pricing kernel and test the theory. Empirical results using size‐based portfolio returns and yields on bonds reject the nested capital asset‐pricing model and linear APT and support the nonlinear APT. Diagnostics show that the nonlinear model is more capable of explaining variations in small firm returns. 1993 The American Finance Association}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04753.x}, Key = {fds311138} } @article{fds311137, Author = {BANSAL, R and HSIEH, DA and VISWANATHAN, S}, Title = {A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing}, Journal = {The Journal of Finance}, Volume = {48}, Number = {5}, Pages = {1719-1747}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {1993}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0022-1082}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:A1993MP99100006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {This paper uses a nonlinear arbitrage‐pricing model, a conditional linear model, and an unconditional linear model to price international equities, bonds, and forward currency contracts. Unlike linear models, the nonlinear arbitrage‐pricing model requires no restrictions on the payoff space, allowing it to price payoffs of options, forward contracts, and other derivative securities. Only the nonlinear arbitrage‐pricing model does an adequate job of explaining the time series behavior of a cross section of international returns. 1993 The American Finance Association}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05126.x}, Key = {fds311137} } | |
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