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| Publications of Kyle Beardsley :chronological combined listing:%% Books @book{fds328340, Author = {Karim, S and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Equal Opportunity Peacekeeping Women, Peace, and Security in Post-Conflict States}, Pages = {272 pages}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press}, Year = {2017}, Month = {February}, ISBN = {0190602430}, Abstract = {Karim and Beardsley also identify and examine how increasing the representation of women in peacekeeping forces, and even more importantly through enhancing a more holistic value for "equal opportunity," can enable peacekeeping operations ...}, Key = {fds328340} } @book{fds343463, Author = {Wilkenfeld, J and Beardsley, K and Quinn, D}, Title = {Research Handbook On Mediating International Crises}, Pages = {1-424}, Publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, Year = {2019}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9781788110693}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781788110709}, Abstract = {Current conceptions of mediation can often fail to capture the complexity and intricacy of modern conflicts. This Research Handbook addresses this problem by presenting the leading expert opinions on international mediation, examining how international mediation practices, mechanisms and institutions should adapt to the changing characteristics of contemporary international crises.}, Doi = {10.4337/9781788110709}, Key = {fds343463} } @book{fds292241, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {The Mediation Dilemma}, Publisher = {Cornell University Press}, Year = {2011}, url = {http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100199150}, Key = {fds292241} } %% Chapters in Books @misc{fds366286, Author = {Quinn, D and Beardsley, K and Wilkenfeld, J}, Title = {Concluding themes and policy recommendations}, Pages = {360-370}, Booktitle = {Research Handbook On Mediating International Crises}, Year = {2019}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9781788110693}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781788110709.00034}, Abstract = {In this concluding chapter, we pull together the main findings of each of the chapters and group them so as to capture both the central scholarly themes of the Research Handbook and those insights that we believe will be of particular relevance to the policy community. Readers are encouraged to focus in on those themes that pique their interest, and then go to those parts of the Research Handbook, identified by the authors working on those themes, for more detailed explication of these themes. A major theme of this Research Handbook has been that crises in the international system have become increasingly complex over time and are perhaps even more complicated nowadays than during the pinnacle of ethnic conflict during the early to mid-1990s. This is exemplified most clearly by the dizzying array of actors and interests involved in recent crises in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Ukraine. The trend toward increasing complexity can largely be attributed to a related increase in crises with characteristics of gray zone conflicts, a recent term developed to describe crises and conflicts that contain elements of both international rivalry, including among great powers, and domestic conflict, in which actors deliberately keep hostilities at a level short of war and act via proxy in order to avoid attribution and undesirable international attention.}, Doi = {10.4337/9781788110709.00034}, Key = {fds366286} } @misc{fds366285, Author = {Wilkenfeld, J and Beardsley, K and Quinn, D}, Title = {Introduction to Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises}, Pages = {1-9}, Booktitle = {Research Handbook On Mediating International Crises}, Year = {2019}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9781788110693}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781788110709.00005}, Abstract = {This Research Handbook brings together a number of perspectives on the practice of mediation in the international system. A diversity of origins and a wide array of actors typify conflicts and crises today. The widespread availability of lethal weapons at the disposal of parties to conflict have made civilian populations tragically vulnerable as they are often caught in the crossfire. These circumstances require a systematic approach to crisis management whereby we can attempt to match the conditions of conflict with appropriate conflict management mechanisms as we seek more effective control of conflict. Mediation, the subject of this Research Handbook, is but one of a number of tools available for addressing conflict and crisis others include arbitration, adjudication, and intervention in the form of peacemaking, peacebuilding, and peacekeeping. We focus on mediation because we believe that when applied to the confluence of conditions that typify todays conflict and crisis arena, mediation either alone or in combination with other intervention mechanisms can make a crucial difference in whether or not the international community will be successful in limiting conflict and crisis. Let us begin first by clarifying our thoughts on crisis. We feel the best way to think about conflict/crisis is as a continuum. At some point in an ongoing conflict, perhaps over land or resources, control of government, borders between states, and so on, that conflict, whether interstate or intrastate, reaches crisis proportions widespread protests, threatening troop movements, violations of cease fires, or actual violence. That is, there has been a change in the disruptive interactions between the parties, resulting either in hostilities or in a higher than normal likelihood of violent hostilities. At that point, the conflict has escalated to crisis. It need not entail violence, but the probability that violence will ensue has increased.}, Doi = {10.4337/9781788110709.00005}, Key = {fds366285} } @misc{fds292222, Author = {Gleditsch, KS and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Issues in Data Collection}, Pages = {4705-4725}, Booktitle = {The International Studies Encyclopedia}, Publisher = {Blackwell}, Editor = {Denemark, RA}, Year = {2010}, url = {http://www.isacompendium.com/}, Key = {fds292222} } @misc{fds292211, Author = {Beardsley, KC and Karim, S}, Title = {Ladies Last: Peacekeeping and Gendered Protection}, Pages = {62-95}, Booktitle = {A Systematic Understanding of Gender, Peace and Security: Implementing UNSCR 1325}, Publisher = {Routledge}, Editor = {Gizelis, TI and Olsson, L}, Year = {2015}, ISBN = {1138800023}, Key = {fds292211} } @misc{fds366288, Author = {Beardsley, K and Quinn, D and Wilkenfeld, J}, Title = {Mediating complex crises}, Pages = {23-37}, Booktitle = {Research Handbook On Mediating International Crises}, Year = {2019}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9781788110693}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781788110709.00008}, Abstract = {This chapter focuses on mediation in the midst of an evolving international system and the ways in which the practice of mediation has changed and could stand to change more in order to increase its effectiveness in managing and resolving crises. Increasingly, when crisis mediation occurs, it will involve multiple attempts. While instances of mediation have declined in recent years, it is actually more likely to occur in crises in which many actors are involved and where there is a mixture of state and non-state actors. The authors find that the ability for mediators to assist the crisis actors in reaching an agreement or otherwise attenuating their hostilities does not decline much under such conditions. This has clear implications for gray zone conflicts, which often involve many actors, including state and non-state ones, and potential spillover of intrastate to interstate crises. Mediation is most likely to occur when these increasingly common gray zone conditions are present. The authors also find that mediators tend to be more effective in crises nested in protracted conflicts.}, Doi = {10.4337/9781788110709.00008}, Key = {fds366288} } @misc{fds292210, Author = {Beardsley, KC and Danneman, N}, Title = {Mediation in International Conflicts}, Booktitle = {Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences: An Interdisciplinary, Searchable, and Linkable Resource}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Editor = {Scott, RA and Kosslyn, SM}, Year = {2015}, ISBN = {978-1-118-90077-2}, Key = {fds292210} } @misc{fds292223, Author = {Beardsley, K and Asal, V}, Title = {Nuclear-Weapons Programs and the Security Dilemma}, Booktitle = {The Nuclear Renaissance and International Security}, Publisher = {Stanford University Press}, Editor = {Fuhrmann, M and Stulberg, A}, Year = {2013}, url = {http://www.sup.org/book.cgi?id=21105}, Key = {fds292223} } @misc{fds368525, Author = {Karim, S and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Peacekeeping and the problem of sexual and gender-based violence}, Pages = {256-269}, Booktitle = {Handbook on Peacekeeping and International Relations}, Publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, Year = {2022}, Month = {December}, ISBN = {9781839109928}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781839109935.00030}, Doi = {10.4337/9781839109935.00030}, Key = {fds368525} } @misc{fds366287, Author = {White, PB and Cunningham, DE and Beardsley, K}, Title = {The United Nations Security Council and conflict prevention in self-determination disputes}, Pages = {167-182}, Booktitle = {Research Handbook On Mediating International Crises}, Year = {2019}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9781788110693}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781788110709.00020}, Abstract = {There is a great deal of scholarship on the UN's response to violent crises, but less is known about the UN's ability to prevent violence from erupting in the first place. Does the UN respond to potential intrastate crises to prevent civil war and are these efforts successful? In this chapter, the authors argue that the answer to both of these questions is yes. In addition to outlining the history of and scholarship on UN preventative action, they discuss statistical analyses of self-determination disputes in which they find that the UN does act to prevent potential crises from becoming violent. They find that the UN is motivated to act primarily by a disputes history of violence and potential regional contagion. They have found also that these efforts are generally successful in preventing non-violent disputes from becoming violent. In both analyses, diplomatic action, such as mediation, is a central activity.}, Doi = {10.4337/9781788110709.00020}, Key = {fds366287} } %% Journal Articles @article{fds292221, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {Agreement without peace? International mediation and time inconsistency problems}, Journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {52}, Number = {4}, Pages = {723-740}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2008}, Month = {October}, ISSN = {0092-5853}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00339.x}, Abstract = {Mediation has competing short- and long-term effects. In the short run, the actors are better able to identify and settle on a mutually satisfying outcome. In the long run, mediation can create artificial incentives that, as the mediator's influence wanes and the combatants' demands change, leave the actors with an agreement less durable than one that would have been achieved without mediation. This article tests the observable implications from this logic using a set of international crises from 1918 to 2001. The results reconcile findings in the previous literature that inconsistently portray the effectiveness of mediation. © 2008, Midwest Political Science Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00339.x}, Key = {fds292221} } @article{fds292228, Author = {Beardsley, K and Lim, JJ}, Title = {Atoms for Peace, Redux: Energy Codependency for Sustained Cooperation on the Korean Peninsula}, Journal = {Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy}, Volume = {15}, Number = {1}, Publisher = {WALTER DE GRUYTER GMBH}, Year = {2009}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1129}, Doi = {10.2202/1554-8597.1129}, Key = {fds292228} } @article{fds357622, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {Clarifying the mediation dilemma: A response to “Sticks and carrots for peace”}, Journal = {Research & Politics}, Volume = {8}, Number = {2}, Pages = {205316802110270-205316802110270}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2021}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/20531680211027017}, Abstract = {This brief essay considers the “mediation dilemma” in the light of new analysis by Constantin Ruhe and Iris Volg. Ruhe and Volg’s analysis adds to our understanding of manipulative mediation in two important ways: (a) it demonstrates how an analysis that uses a lens of survival functions clarifies the policy trade-offs beyond what is possible from an analysis that uses a lens of changing hazard rates; and (b) it demonstrates that lighter (nonmanipulative) forms of mediation have a less positive effect on peace stability than in the original analysis. This response also offers important corrections to the conclusions drawn by Ruhe and Volg: (a) ignoring the lens of changing hazard rates misses key ways of testing for the observable implications that arise from the underlying theoretical arguments; (b) Ruhe and Volg misstate some of the theoretical claims made by Beardsley; and (c) almost all of the original implications explored by Beardsley remain supported.}, Doi = {10.1177/20531680211027017}, Key = {fds357622} } @article{fds342357, Author = {Webster, K and Chen, C and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Conflict, Peace, and the Evolution of Women's Empowerment}, Journal = {International Organization}, Volume = {73}, Number = {2}, Pages = {255-289}, Year = {2019}, Month = {March}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0020818319000055}, Abstract = {How do periods of conflict and peace shape women's empowerment around the world? While existing studies have demonstrated that gender inequalities contribute to the propensity for armed conflict, we consider how the anticipation and realization of armed conflict shape women's opportunities for influence in society. Some scholars have pointed to the role that militarization and threat play in entrenching male dominance, while others have argued that periods of warfare can upend existing gender hierarchical orders. We posit mechanisms by which the preparation for and experiences during war affect change in women's empowerment. We develop and test observable implications using cross-national data from 1900 to 2015. We find that, at least in the short and medium term, warfare can disrupt social institutions and lead to an increase in women's empowerment via mechanisms related to role shifts across society and political shifts catalyzed by war. Reforming institutions and mainstreaming gender during peace processes stand to have important legacies for gender power relations in postconflict societies, though much more may be needed for more permanent change.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0020818319000055}, Key = {fds342357} } @article{fds292237, Author = {Beardsley, K and Lo, N}, Title = {Democratic Communities and Third-Party Conflict Management}, Journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, Volume = {30}, Number = {1}, Pages = {76-93}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2013}, Month = {February}, ISSN = {0738-8942}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894212456954}, Abstract = {We explore how the domestic political institutions of states in the neighborhood of international disputants affect the incentives for third-party conflict management. Existing scholarship has argued that as the number of democracies in the international system increases, disputants are more likely to want and find third-party conflict management. We propose two alternative explanations for the connection between democratization and changing patterns of conflict management that consider more localized mechanisms. We posit that neighboring democratic leaders, with stronger incentives to deliver public benefits, will be more willing to push for their involvement as third parties, particularly when the disputes are sufficiently salient to affect regional security dynamics yet not so difficult that protracted engagement is likely. We also posit that, since international organizations (IOs) tend to be more engaged in democratic communities, IOs will be more active peacemakers in disputes, especially intractable and violent ones, that occur in heavily democratic regions. Using event history analysis of the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) data, we find support for these arguments. Disputants with many democratic neighbors are more likely to experience third-party conflict management by democracies-this effect is increasing in the salience and decreasing in the intractability of the dispute-and IOs-this effect is increasing in the intractability of the dispute. Counter to expectations based on a logic of norm diffusion, third-party conflict management is not more likely among democracies that are in dispute with each other nor when the proportion of democracies in the international system increases. © The Author(s) 2013.}, Doi = {10.1177/0738894212456954}, Key = {fds292237} } @article{fds292215, Author = {Beardsley, KC and Eric D. Wish, and Dawn Bonanno Fitzelle, and Kevin O'Grady, and Amelia M. Arria}, Title = {Distance Traveled to Treatment and Client Retention}, Journal = {Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment}, Volume = {25}, Number = {4}, Pages = {279-285}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2003}, ISSN = {0740-5472}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0740-5472(03)00188-0}, Abstract = {This study examined the association between approximate distance traveled to treatment, and treatment completion and length of stay, for 1,735 clients attending outpatient treatment in an urban area. Clients who traveled less than 1 mile were 50% more likely to complete treatment than clients who traveled more than 1 mile, after holding constant demographic variables and type of drug problem. Similarly, clients who traveled more than 4 miles were significantly more likely to have a shorter length of stay than clients who traveled less than 1 mile. These findings have important implications for the geographic placement of new treatment facilities, as well as the provision of transportation services to maximize treatment retention.}, Doi = {10.1016/S0740-5472(03)00188-0}, Key = {fds292215} } @article{fds292214, Author = {Undie, AS and Berki, AC and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Dopaminergic behaviors and signal transduction mediated through adenylate cyclase and phospholipase C pathways.}, Journal = {Neuropharmacology}, Volume = {39}, Number = {1}, Pages = {75-87}, Publisher = {Elsevier BV}, Year = {2000}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0028-3908}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0028-3908(99)00106-9}, Abstract = {We determined the relative effects of chemical receptor inactivation on dopaminergic signaling through adenylate cyclase and phospholipase C pathways and evaluated the behavioral implications of such receptor manipulations. Groups of rats were given intraperitoneal injections of 10 mg/kg N-ethoxycarbonyl-2-ethoxy-1,2-dihydroquinoline (EEDQ), a reagent that differentially inactivates neurotransmitter receptors. Control and treated animals were used to assess dopaminergic-mediated behaviors or brain tissues were prepared from the animals and used to assay D1-like receptor binding and agonist-stimulated second messenger formation. EEDQ decreased by 75% the number of D1-like binding sites and completely abolished dopamine-stimulated cyclic AMP formation in striatal membranes. Conversely, dopamine-stimulated phosphoinositide hydrolysis was insensitive to inactivation by EEDQ as examined over different durations of EEDQ treatment, in different brain regions, or with different concentrations of the D1-like receptor agonist SKF38393. EEDQ-pretreated animals lost their stereotypic response to apomorphine but showed increased vacuous jaw movements in response to apomorphine or SKF38393. Basal catalepsy was increased and SCH23390 was unable to further enhance catalepsy beyond the basal levels in the lesioned animals. In naive animals, SCH23390 catalepsy was reversed by apomorphine, and apomorphine stereotypy was reversed by SCH23390. Taken together, the present results imply that the dopamine-sensitive phospholipase C system mediates a subset of dopaminergic behaviors, notably vacuous jaw movements, in contrast to stereotypy and catalepsy which appear to be respectively mediated through stimulation and inhibition of the adenylate cyclase-coupled dopaminergic system.}, Doi = {10.1016/s0028-3908(99)00106-9}, Key = {fds292214} } @article{fds353327, Author = {WEBSTER, K and TORRES, P and CHEN, C and BEARDSLEY, K}, Title = {Ethnic and gender hierarchies in the crucible of war}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {64}, Number = {3}, Pages = {710-722}, Year = {2020}, Month = {September}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa031}, Abstract = {Recent scholarship shows war can catalyze reforms related to gender power imbalances, but what about reforms related to ethnic inequalities? While war can disrupt the political, social and economic institutions at the root of ethnic hierarchy-just as it can shake up the institutions at the root of gender hierarchy-war is also prone to have either a reinforcing effect or a pendulum effect. Our project uses data from the Varieties of Democracy project to examine specific manifestations of changes in gender and ethnic civil-liberty equality (1900-2015). Interstate war, but not intrastate war, tends to be followed by gains in ethnic civil-liberty equality, and intrastate war tends to be followed by long-term gains in gender civil-liberty equality. Wars with government losses are prone to lead to improvements in civil-liberty equality along both dimensions. In considering overlapping gender and ethnic hierarchies, we find that when wars open up space for gains in gender equality, they also facilitate gains in equality for excluded ethnic groups.}, Doi = {10.1093/isq/sqaa031}, Key = {fds353327} } @article{fds320678, Author = {Karim, S and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Explaining sexual exploitation and abuse in peacekeeping missions: The role of female peacekeepers and gender equality in contributing countries}, Journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, Volume = {53}, Number = {1}, Pages = {100-115}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2016}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343315615506}, Abstract = {Sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) is an endemic problem in UN peacekeeping missions. It is not only a gross human rights violation, but also threatens to challenge the legitimacy of the peacekeeping mission and undermines the promotion of gender equality in host countries. We examine if the composition of peacekeeping forces along two dimensions – the proportion of women and the records of gender (in)equality in the contributing countries – helps explain variation in SEA allegations. Analysis of mission-level information from 2009 to 2013 indicates that including higher proportions of both female peacekeepers and personnel from countries with better records of gender equality is associated with lower levels of SEA allegations reported against military contingents. We conclude that substantial reductions in SEA perpetrated by peacekeepers requires cultivation of a value for gender equality among all peacekeepers – improving the representation of women may help but still stops short of addressing the root of the problem.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022343315615506}, Key = {fds320678} } @article{fds292240, Author = {Karim, S and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Female Peacekeepers and Gender Balancing: Token Gestures or Informed Policymaking?}, Journal = {International Interactions}, Volume = {39}, Number = {4}, Pages = {461-488}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2013}, Month = {September}, ISSN = {0305-0629}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2013.805131}, Abstract = {Since the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1325 (2000), which is referenced in most of the mandates for peacekeeping authorizations and renewals as of its adoption, UN peacekeeping forces have begun a process of gender balancing. While we have seen an increase in the numbers of female peacekeepers during the decade 2000-2010 and variation in the distribution patterns of female military personnel, we do not know if female military peacekeepers are deploying to areas that are safest or to areas with the greatest need for gender-balanced international involvement. Because the decision-making authority in the allocation of peacekeeping forces rests with the troop-contributing countries, which might not have bought into the gender balancing and mainstreaming initiatives mandated by the UN Security Council, we propose and find evidence that female military personnel tend to deploy to areas where there is least risk. They tend not to deploy where they may be most needed-where sexual violence and gender equity has been a major problem-and we find only a modest effect of having specific language in the mandates related to gender issues. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.}, Doi = {10.1080/03050629.2013.805131}, Key = {fds292240} } @article{fds292235, Author = {Beardsley, K and Schmidt, H}, Title = {Following the Flag or Following the Charter? Examining the Determinants of UN Involvement in International Crises, 1945-2002}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {56}, Number = {1}, Pages = {33-49}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2012}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0020-8833}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00696.x}, Abstract = {This paper compares the explanatory power of two models of UN intervention behavior: (i) an "organizational mission model" built around the proposition that variations in the amount of resources that the UN devotes to different conflicts primarily reflect the degree to which a conflict poses a challenge to the UN's organizational mandate of promoting international peace and stability and (ii) a "parochial interest model" that revolves around the purely private interests of the five veto-holding members of the UN Security Council (the so-called P-5), i.e., interests that are either unrelated to or at odds with the UN's organizational mandate. Examining data on UN conflict management efforts in more than 270 international crises between 1945 and 2002, we find that measures of the severity and escalatory potential of a conflict are significantly better predictors of the extent of UN involvement in international crises than variables that measure P-5 interests that do not align with the UN's organizational mission of acting as a global peacemaker. This suggests that the UN adheres more closely to the humanitarian and security mission laid out in its Charter than critics of the organization often suggest. © 2011 International Studies Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00696.x}, Key = {fds292235} } @article{fds349472, Author = {Beardsley, K and Liu, H and Mucha, PJ and Siegel, DA and Tellez, JF}, Title = {Hierarchy and the provision of order in international politics}, Journal = {Journal of Politics}, Volume = {82}, Number = {2}, Pages = {731-746}, Publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, Year = {2020}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/707096}, Abstract = {The anarchic international system is actually heavily structured: Communities of states join together for common benefit; strong states form hierarchical relationships with weak states to enforce order and achieve preferred outcomes. Breaking from prior research, we conceptualize structures such as community and hierarchy as properties of networks of states’ interactions that can capture unobserved constraints in state behavior, constraints that may reduce conflict. We offer two claims. One, common membership in trade communities pacifies to the extent that breaking trade ties would entail high switching costs: Thus, we expect heavy arms trade, more than most types of commercial trade, to reduce intracommunity conflict. Two, this is driven by hierarchical communities in which strong states can use high switching costs as leverage to constrain conflict between weaker states in the community. We find empirical support for these claims using a timedependent multilayer network model and a new measure of hierarchy based on network centrality.}, Doi = {10.1086/707096}, Key = {fds349472} } @article{fds340594, Author = {Karim, S and Gilligan, MJ and Blair, R and Beardsley, K}, Title = {International gender balancing reforms in postconflict countries: Lab-in-the-field evidence from the Liberian national police}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {62}, Number = {3}, Pages = {618-631}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2018}, Month = {September}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqy009}, Abstract = {In the aftermath of civil conflict, war-torn states often require reform of their government institutions. Gender balancing, or the inclusion of more women in security-sector institutions, is an increasingly common reform incorporated into state-building processes. Our theoretical priors suggest that gender balancing may influence unit cohesion, operational effectiveness with respect to sexual and gender-based violence, and organizational gender norms. We study these propositions using laboratory experiments with police officers of the Liberian National Police (LNP). We randomly assigned the proportions of women and men in 102 groups of six LNP officers to observe their deliberative processes and group choices. In our experiment, adding more women increased unit cohesion, but we find no evidence to suggest that simply adding more women would increase group (or individual) sensitivity to sexual and gender-based violence. We also find that, despite an increase in participation and influence by women, male beliefs about women's role in policing do not improve with the inclusion of women. As one of the first experimental studies to assess the effects of gender composition within the actual population of interest, our results shed light on how international interventions to address gender equality in postconflict countries affect important outcomes related to security.}, Doi = {10.1093/isq/sqy009}, Key = {fds340594} } @article{fds292232, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {Intervention without leverage: Explaining the prevalence of weak mediators}, Journal = {International Interactions}, Volume = {35}, Number = {3}, Pages = {272-297}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2009}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {0305-0629}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03050620903084547}, Abstract = {Existing research on international mediation emphasizes the importance of leverage in altering the combatants' ability to reach a negotiated settlement. Less understood is the role of third parties that do not have access to sources of leverage even though they comprise a substantial amount of mediation efforts. This paper highlights two potential explanations for the prevalence of "weak" mediators. First, a choice of third parties without leverage might be a product of the "supply side" preferences of the international community, in particular, the great powers. Second, the inclusion of third parties without any leverage can result from actors hedging their commitments to the peace process when they suspect with some uncertainty that one side will use third-party involvement insincerely for ends other than peace. Using data from the Managing Intrastate Low Level Conflicts (MILC) project, in conjunction with the PRIO/UPPSALA Armed Conflict data, empirical results using competing risk models confirm both logics. Mediators with weak leverage are more likely when an actor has strong incentives to stall: specifically, when the immediate costs of conflict are high, there is domestic political pressure in the absence of democratic accountability, and relative bargaining power is shifting. The findings also suggest that supply-side dynamics matter. Weak mediators are less likely in the presence of substantial foreign investment and in neighborhoods with strong states, but mediators of all types are more likely in democratic neighborhoods. To further explore the role of insincere motivations, the paper considers the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) in Sri Lanka, brokered by Norway. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.}, Doi = {10.1080/03050620903084547}, Key = {fds292232} } @article{fds292219, Author = {Beardsley, KC and Quinn, DM and Biswas, B and Wilkenfeld, J}, Title = {Mediation style and crisis outcomes}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {50}, Number = {1}, Pages = {58-86}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2006}, Month = {February}, ISSN = {0022-0027}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002705282862}, Abstract = {This study focuses on the varying effectiveness of three mediation styles - facilitation, formulation, and manipulation - on international crises. Effectiveness is assessed in terms of three outcome variables: formal agreement, post-crisis tension reduction, and contribution to crisis abatement. The authors analyze new data on the mediation process from the International Crisis Behavior project (1918-2001). Manipulation has the strongest effect on the likelihood of both reaching a formal agreement and contributing to crisis abatement. Facilitation has the greatest influence on increasing the prospects for lasting tension reduction. The authors explore how the different styles affect the strategic bargaining environment to explain these differences in impact. The findings suggest that mediators should use a balance of styles if they are to maximize their overall effectiveness. © 2006 Sage Publications.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002705282862}, Key = {fds292219} } @article{fds340955, Author = {Beardsley, K and Cunningham, DE and White, PB}, Title = {Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {63}, Number = {7}, Pages = {1682-1709}, Year = {2019}, Month = {August}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002718817092}, Abstract = {One of the proposed benefits of third-party involvement that has been offered to justify its use is that it helps reduce the severity of conflict. Existing work finding that peacekeeping operations reduce battle-related fatalities considers peacekeeping in isolation from other forms of third-party diplomatic involvement, such as mediation. We argue that mediation has its own effect on patterns of violence. Moreover, we argue that peacekeeping and mediation can have an interactive effect, in which each enhance the violence-reducing potential of the other. Using monthly data on battle-related deaths in African intrastate conflicts, we find that mediation is associated with reduced bloodshed. We also find, consistent with existing work, that a greater number of peacekeepers leads to a reduction in violence. In addition, we find that mediation and peacekeeping efforts reinforce one another, although each type of involvement is able to reduce battlefield fatalities independently.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002718817092}, Key = {fds340955} } @article{fds292218, Author = {Gleditsch, KS and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Nosy neighbors: Third-party actors in Central American conflicts}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {48}, Number = {3}, Pages = {379-402}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2004}, Month = {June}, ISSN = {0022-0027}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002704263710}, Abstract = {Scholars argue that third parties make rational calculations and intervene to influence interstate dispute outcomes in favor of their own objectives. Third parties affect not only conflict outcomes but also escalation and duration. Theories of third-party involvement are applied to understand the dynamics of intrastate war. An analysis of event data for three Central American conflicts (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua) from 1984 to 2001 is used to examine transnational actors' influence on the dynamics of civil war. Findings show that transnational third parties often alter levels of cooperation among domestic adversaries, and that consistency affects the strength and direction of third-party influence.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002704263710}, Key = {fds292218} } @article{fds292230, Author = {Beardsley, K and Asal, V}, Title = {Nuclear weapons as shields}, Journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, Volume = {26}, Number = {3}, Pages = {235-255}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2009}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {0738-8942}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894209104550}, Abstract = {What security benefits do nuclear weapons provide to their possessors? After accounting for two potential selection effects, the empirical evidence from all international crises from 1945 to 2000 indicates that opponents of nuclear-weapon states demonstrate restraint in turning to violent aggression. Nuclear weapons, however, have little effect on overall crisis occurrence.The authors also explore the behavioral effects of nuclear-weapons programs and find that program states have a higher proclivity for crisis occurrence. © 2009 The Author(s).}, Doi = {10.1177/0738894209104550}, Key = {fds292230} } @article{fds350214, Author = {Chen, C and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Once and Future Peacemakers: Continuity of Third-party Involvement in Civil War Peace Processes}, Journal = {International Peacekeeping}, Volume = {28}, Number = {2}, Pages = {285-311}, Year = {2021}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2020.1768074}, Abstract = {Despite the importance of having continuity in third-party involvement, many third parties lack the ability to commit as long-term peace guarantors. We argue that non-state actors and third parties with vested interests in peace and stability will be more likely to sustain involvement in post-conflict periods. Analysis of monthly level data from the Managing Intrastate Conflict (MIC) project confirms that third parties that have had wartime experience as conflict managers are more likely to get involved in post-conflict peace processes, regardless of whether the conflict management is in the form of peacekeeping missions, mediation or good offices; regardless of whether the third party is geographically proximate; and regardless of whether the third party is a state or non-state actor. The results also confirm that third-party geographic proximity and other measures of vested interests additively increase the propensity for postwar involvement. However, wartime conflict management experience matters less for third parties with vested interests, suggesting the additional importance of demand-side determinants of third-party conflict management.}, Doi = {10.1080/13533312.2020.1768074}, Key = {fds350214} } @article{fds292233, Author = {Beardsley, KC}, Title = {Pain, pressure and political cover: Explaining mediation incidence}, Journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, Volume = {47}, Number = {4}, Pages = {395-406}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2010}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {0022-3433}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343309356384}, Abstract = {This article explores the effect of domestic and international politics on the choice of mediation as a conflict management strategy in international crises. Existing work has yet to fully explore how domestic and international audiences shape the combatants' preferences for mediation. With regard to domestic pressures, combatants often desire mediation as political cover for unpalatable concessions. That is, intermediaries might obscure responsibility for disappointing outcomes or signal the prudence of compromise. In terms of international audiences, affected third parties eager to shape the resolution outcome might lobby to serve as a mediator. Since both domestic and international audiences are affected by the crisis severity, the article also explores how the pain of fighting conditions the effect of international and domestic political pressures. Empirical analysis of international crises since World War I confirms that potential domestic audience costs for seeking peace and the propensity for concessions positively affect the probability of mediation. Less clear is the role of third-party incentives; the results indicate that a higher potential for neighboring-state intervention actually decreases the likelihood of mediation. Consistent with previous studies, conflict costs increase mediation incidence, and the findings also indicate that at high costs of conflict, states appear in less need of political cover for making concessions. © The Author(s) 2010.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022343309356384}, Key = {fds292233} } @article{fds292234, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {Peacekeeping and the contagion of armed conflict}, Journal = {Journal of Politics}, Volume = {73}, Number = {4}, Pages = {1051-1064}, Publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, Year = {2011}, Month = {October}, ISSN = {0022-3816}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611000764}, Abstract = {Existing scholarship has characterized the severity of and mechanisms behind the problem of conflict contagion but not how to address it. Although studies of peacekeeping have demonstrated that it can prevent conflict recurrence, we know little about whether international actors can also help prevent conflict from spreading. Using event history analysis that incorporates information from neighboring observations, the empirical findings indicate that the expected risk of armed conflict increases by over 70% when peacekeepers are not deployed to a recent neighboring conflict but does not significantly rise when neighboring peacekeepers are deployed. One of the key means by which peacekeeping helps contain conflict is through addressing problems related to transnational movement of and support for insurgencies, thereby specifically preventing intrastate conflict from increasing the propensity for new intrastate conflict nearby. Moreover, both lighter and more substantial peacekeeping deployments can prevent conflict diffusion. © Copyright Southern Political Science Association 2011.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0022381611000764}, Key = {fds292234} } @article{fds292213, Author = {Beardsley, K and Gleditsch, KS}, Title = {Peacekeeping as conflict containment}, Journal = {International Studies Review}, Volume = {17}, Number = {1}, Pages = {67-89}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2015}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {1521-9488}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/misr.12205}, Abstract = {A rich literature has developed focusing on the efficacy of peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in a temporal sense - asking whether the periods following a deployment are more peaceful or not. We know less about the efficacy of PKOs in a spatial sense. Can peacekeeping shape the geographic dispersion of particular episodes of violence? We posit that PKOs can contain conflict by decreasing the tactical advantage of mobility for the rebels, by obstructing the movement of armed actors, and by altering the ability for governments to seek and confront rebel actors. We investigate the observable implications using georeferenced conflict polygons from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED). Our findings confirm that PKOs tend to decrease movement in the conflict polygons, especially when robust forces are deployed and when rebel groups have strong ethnic ties. Our findings, on the one hand, imply that PKOs reduce the geographic scope of violence. On the other hand, PKOs may allow nonstate actors to gain strength and legitimacy and thus constitute an even greater future threat to the state whether some form of accord is not reached.}, Doi = {10.1111/misr.12205}, Key = {fds292213} } @article{fds363119, Author = {Blair, RA and Karim, SM and Gilligan, MJ and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Policing Ethnicity: Lab-in-the-Field Evidence on Discrimination, Cooperation, and Ethnic Balancing in the Liberian National Police}, Journal = {Quarterly Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {17}, Number = {2}, Pages = {141-181}, Publisher = {Now Publishers}, Year = {2022}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00019226}, Abstract = {Ethnic balancing in the security sector increasingly accompanies power sharing agreements after civil war, but new challenges arise as these institutions must sustain cooperation amidst increasing ethnic heterogeneity. Inclusive involvement in security sector institutions may reduce discrimination against minority groups. But pressure to assimilate may also foment "loyalty conflict" among minority group members, exacerbating discrimination. We test these competing logics using surveys and lab-in-the-field experiments with teams of Liberian National Police officers. Consistent with a logic of loyalty conflict, we find that teams with minority police officers are more rather than less discriminatory against minority civilians. This effect is not driven by heterogeneity, but rather by the presence of minority police officers per se. We also find that teams that include minority police officers are no more or less cooperative than those that do not, and that heterogeneous teams are no more or less cooperative than homogeneous ones. We argue that these effects are likely a result of professionalization processes that encourage conformity and loyalty to an existing police subculture.}, Doi = {10.1561/100.00019226}, Key = {fds363119} } @article{fds292217, Author = {Asal, V and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Proliferation and international crisis behavior}, Journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, Volume = {44}, Number = {2}, Pages = {139-155}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2007}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0022-3433}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343307075118}, Abstract = {The literature on international conflict is divided on the impact of nuclear proliferation on state conflict. The optimists' argument contends that nuclear weapons raise the stakes so high that states are unlikely to go to war when nuclear weapons enter the equation. The pessimists rebut this argument, contending that new proliferators are not necessarily rational and that having nuclear weapons does not discourage war but rather makes war more dangerous. Focusing on one observable implication from this debate, this article examines the relationship between the severity of violence in crises and the number of involved states with nuclear weapons. The study contends that actors will show more restraint in crises involving more participants with nuclear weapons. Using data from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, the results demonstrate that crises involving nuclear actors are more likely to end without violence and, as the number of nuclear actors involved increases, the likelihood of war continues to fall. The results are robust even when controlling for a number of factors including non-nuclear capability. In confirming that nuclear weapons tend to increase restraint in crises, the effect of nuclear weapons on strategic behavior is clarified. But the findings do not suggest that increasing the number of nuclear actors in a crisis can prevent war, and they cannot speak to other proliferation risks. © 2007 Journal of Peace Research.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022343307075118}, Key = {fds292217} } @article{fds292231, Author = {Beardsley, K and McQuinn, B}, Title = {Rebel groups as predatory organizations: The political effects of the 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia and Sri Lanka}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {53}, Number = {4}, Pages = {624-645}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2009}, Month = {August}, ISSN = {0022-0027}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002709336460}, Abstract = {In this article we propose a new typology for insurgent groups to explain why in such remarkably similar conflicts-Sri Lanka and Aceh-the impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was so different. We argue that two principal factors shape all rebel groups by defining their incentive structures: the efficiency of the return on investment of the primary source(s) of support and the group's territorial objectives. The former factor is especially strong in explaining the different choices made by the LTTE and GAM. In Sri Lanka, the availability of lucrative resources outside the country has made the LTTE leadership inimical to compromise, threatened by relief aid, and less reliant on the local population. Lacking access to such high-return funding sources, GAM on the other hand was more closely linked to the needs of the local population and found greater value in both outside aid and a comprehensive settlement. © 2009 The Author(s).}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002709336460}, Key = {fds292231} } @article{fds292224, Author = {Beardsley, K and Cunningham, DE and White, PB}, Title = {Resolving Civil Wars before They Start: The un Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes}, Journal = {British Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {47}, Number = {3}, Pages = {675-697}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2017}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {1469-2112}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123415000307}, Abstract = {A large literature has demonstrated that international action can promote the resolution of civil wars. However, international actors do not wait until violence starts to seek to manage conflicts. This article considers the ways in which the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reduces the propensity for self-determination movements to escalate to civil war, through actions that directly pertain to the disputing actors or that indirectly shape actor incentives. It examines the relationship between the content of UNSC resolutions in all self-determination disputes from 1960 to 2005 and the onset of armed conflict in the disputes. The study finds that diplomatic actions that directly address disputes reduce the likelihood of armed conflict, and that military force and sanctions have more indirect preventive effects.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0007123415000307}, Key = {fds292224} } @article{fds292212, Author = {Beardsley, K and Gleditsch, KS and Lo, N}, Title = {Roving Bandits? The Geographical Evolution of African Armed Conflicts}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {59}, Number = {3}, Pages = {503-516}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2015}, Month = {September}, ISSN = {0020-8833}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12196}, Abstract = {The fighting in some civil wars primarily takes place in a few stable locations, while the fighting in others moves substantially. We posit that rebel groups that do not primarily fight for a specific ethnic group, that receive outside military assistance, or that have relatively weak fighting capacity tend to fight in inconsistent locations. We develop new measures of conflict zone movement to test our hypotheses, based on shifts in the conflict polygons derived from the new Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) developed by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Our empirical results provide support for the suggested mechanisms. We find that groups which lack strong ethnic ties and sufficient military strength to compete with government forces in conventional warfare fight in more varied locations. These findings improve our understandings of and expectations for variations in the humanitarian footprint of armed conflicts, the interdependencies between rebel groups and local populations, and the dilemmas faced by government counterinsurgency efforts.}, Doi = {10.1111/isqu.12196}, Key = {fds292212} } @article{fds292216, Author = {Beck, N and Gleditsch, K and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Space Is More than Geography: Using Spatial Econometrics in the Study of Political Economy}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {50}, Number = {1}, Pages = {27-44}, Year = {2006}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0020-8833}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00391.x}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00391.x}, Key = {fds292216} } @article{fds292220, Author = {Beardsley, K and Greig, JM}, Title = {Symposium:Disaggregating the incentives of conflict management: Disaggregating the incentives of conflict management: An introduction}, Journal = {International Interactions}, Volume = {35}, Number = {3}, Pages = {243-248}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2009}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {0305-0629}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03050620903084497}, Doi = {10.1080/03050620903084497}, Key = {fds292220} } @article{fds320677, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {The known knowns and known unknowns of peacekeeping data: Advances in the analysis of contributor-level peacekeeping data, with a focus on gender data}, Journal = {International Peacekeeping}, Volume = {24}, Number = {1}, Pages = {9-13}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2017}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2016.1226768C}, Doi = {10.1080/13533312.2016.1226768C}, Key = {fds320677} } @article{fds292239, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {The UN at the peacemaking-peacebuilding nexus}, Journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, Volume = {30}, Number = {4}, Pages = {369-386}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2013}, Month = {September}, ISSN = {0738-8942}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894213491354}, Abstract = {The UN Security Council (UNSC) confronts at least three challenges in translating its actions during armed conflict into more durable peace after conflict. First, heavy-handed interventions such as military deployments and sanctions can impede the ability of the disputants to identify and reach a self-sustaining settlement when there is insufficient follow-through. Second, coordination problems can arise in handing off peacemaking activities from actors in the Secretariat to the UNSC when post-conflict security guarantees and continuous engagement are needed. Third, explicit attempts by the UNSC to produce peace and stability make it susceptible to the problem of cheap talk when it proclaims its concerns. After characterizing these problems in theory and generating observable implications, the paper uses original data on UNSC resolutions to test the hypotheses. The results indicate that the UN can succeed as a short-term peacemaker, particularly when it relies on diplomatic engagement and sanctions. However, when there is not adequate follow-through in the form of peacekeeping, the UN struggles to improve the long-term prospects of peace in part because it tends to promote stop-gap ceasefire resolutions. With peacekeeping, active UN involvement during conflict can promote long-term stability. Half measures such as condemnations have little effect on the stability of peace. © The Author(s) 2013.}, Doi = {10.1177/0738894213491354}, Key = {fds292239} } @article{fds365238, Author = {Mahmood, Z and Beardsley, K and Newton, C and Roy, C and Kathman, JD and Tucker, C and Nomikos, WG and Villa, DN and Binder, M and Allen, S and Yuen, A and Passmore, TJA and Shannon, M and Hultman, L and Chapman, TL}, Title = {The United Nations After 75: Assessing Current Understandings, Charting Fruitful Research Agendas}, Journal = {International Peacekeeping}, Volume = {29}, Number = {4}, Pages = {551-623}, Year = {2022}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13533312.2022.2098650}, Abstract = {From its capacity for deploying joint operations in conflict zones to its status as a standard-bearing forum for international behaviour, the United Nations has asserted its relevance in a diverse array of issues and conflicts around the world. Equally as diverse has been the scholarship surrounding the United Nations over the past several decades. This collection of essays provides a snapshot of these diverse lines of scholarship, highlighting existing scholarship on a range of topics, as well as identifying areas of opportunity for future scholarly work on these topics. Taken as a whole, this forum more broadly provides insight into core pillars of the United Nations' mission--including the maintenance of peace and security; fostering friendly relations between nations; promoting human rights and humanitarian goals; and encouraging cooperation and harmonization of interests between nations. Moving forward, it is our hope that this collection will serve as a sprigboard for inspiring future work to both build and expand upon the insights from the past several decades of scholarship on the United Nations.}, Doi = {10.1080/13533312.2022.2098650}, Key = {fds365238} } @article{fds292227, Author = {Beardsley, K and Lo, N}, Title = {Third-Party Conflict Management and the Willingness to Make Concessions}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {58}, Number = {2}, Pages = {363-392}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2014}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {0022-0027}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002712467932}, Abstract = {Third-party conflict management, particularly legal dispute resolution (arbitration and adjudication) and mediation, can help improve the willingness of disputants to make asymmetric concessions by ameliorating commitment problems and providing political cover. In both regards, and especially pertaining to commitment problems, mediation has substantial limitations when compared to legal dispute resolution. We develop these arguments and test the observable implications on the Issue Correlates of War data. To get traction on the mechanisms at work, we distinguish between challenger concessions and defender concessions, positing that challenger concessions face the primary hurdle of political cover while defender concessions face the primary hurdle of commitment problems. We find that legal dispute resolution strongly increases the propensity for concessions by both challengers and targets, even major asymmetric concessions. Mediation, on the other hand, only helps increase minor challenger concessions. Also consistent with expectations, mediation best enables asymmetric challenger concessions in the highly salient cases that need the most political cover, and legal dispute resolution best enables asymmetric concessions when there has been a history of failed conflict management attempts that perpetuate mistrust. © The Author(s) 2013.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002712467932}, Key = {fds292227} } @article{fds364963, Author = {Chen, C and Roberts, J and Adhikari, S and Asal, V and Beardsley, K and Gonzalez, E and Jahanbani, N and James, P and Lobell, SE and Ripsman, NM and Silverstone, S and Van Wijk and A}, Title = {Tipping Points: Challenges in Analyzing International Crisis Escalation}, Journal = {International Studies Review}, Volume = {24}, Number = {3}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2022}, Month = {September}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isr/viac024}, Abstract = {Why do some near crises tip over into full-blown crisis and others do not? This paper considers existing scholarship and identifies four key barriers to using quantitative analysis for tipping-point analyses: strategic indeterminacy; the incentives for conflict parties to avoid inefficiencies; the paucity of cases; and the availability of quality data. Due to these challenges, many do not perform well as immediate causes for crisis escalation. We also argue and demonstrate through two quantitative models of crisis escalation that some variables, particularly related to domestic politics, can do well in explaining why some disputes tip into crisis and others do not. As we illustrate with reference to the 1995-1996 Third Taiwan Straits Crisis, qualitative approaches that analyze the processes by which leaders and foreign policy institutions make decisions add needed explanatory power to purely quantitative models of the potential for near crises to tip into crisis.}, Doi = {10.1093/isr/viac024}, Key = {fds364963} } @article{fds292236, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {UN intervention and the duration of international crises}, Journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, Volume = {49}, Number = {2}, Pages = {335-349}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2012}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0022-3433}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343311431599}, Abstract = {This article examines the effect of UN actions on the duration of international crises. Four different types of action - assurance, diplomatic engagement, military involvement, and intimidation - and three different outcomes - compromise, victory, and stalemate - are considered. After building on the existing literature to develop expectations of how a third party like the UN shapes crisis trajectories, hypotheses are tested using the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data and a new events dataset on UN activity. Results from competing-risks models reveal that UN military involvement does well to decrease the risk of one side achieving victory, and diplomatic engagement increases the ability of the belligerents to reach a compromise in the long run. Moreover, diplomatic engagement accompanied by military involvement substantially hastens the pace of stalemate outcomes. Both tactics, however, have some trade-offs. Military involvement can decrease the sense of urgency for compromise; diplomatic engagement can be used for insincere motives and increase the risk of one-sided victory over time. UN actions of assurance and simple intimidation have considerable shortcomings as crisis management vehicles. © Peace Research Institute Oslo 2012.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022343311431599}, Key = {fds292236} } @article{fds292238, Author = {Beardsley, K}, Title = {Using the Right Tool for the Job: Mediator Leverage and Conflict Resolution}, Journal = {Penn State Journal of Law and International Affairs}, Volume = {2}, Number = {1}, Pages = {57-65}, Year = {2013}, url = {http://elibrary.law.psu.edu/jlia/vol2/iss1/8/}, Key = {fds292238} } @article{fds332877, Author = {White, PB and Cunningham, DE and Beardsley, K}, Title = {Where, when, and how does the UN work to prevent civil war in self-determination disputes?}, Journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, Volume = {55}, Number = {3}, Pages = {380-394}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2018}, Month = {May}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343317744826}, Abstract = {The UN has placed rhetorical emphasis on the prevention of armed conflict before it starts and has taken selective action toward that end. What determines where the UN gets involved? We examine UN preventive actions by focusing on UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions in self-determination (SD) disputes. We argue that UN decisionmakers consider at least three factors when deciding where to target preventive action: the dispute’s conflict history, the potential for regional contagion, and the characteristics of the dispute. We further argue that the political dynamics of UNSC decisionmaking constrain the UN’s ability to pay attention to the third factor (the characteristics of the dispute). We test this argument using data on all UNSC resolutions comprising the authorization of diplomatic engagement, condemnation, the authorization of sanctions, and the deployment of force targeted toward SD disputes from 1960 to 2005. We find that the UN is much more likely to act in nonviolent disputes that have a history of violence and in disputes with a potential for regional contagion. The analysis shows that, while political barriers likely restrict the ability for the UNSC to act when dispute-level characteristics suggest armed conflict is more likely, the UN does act proactively to prevent violence, rather than just reactively responding to existing violence.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022343317744826}, Key = {fds332877} } @article{fds292229, Author = {Beardsley, K and Asal, V}, Title = {Winning with the bomb}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {53}, Number = {2}, Pages = {278-301}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2009}, Month = {April}, ISSN = {0022-0027}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002708330386}, Abstract = {Nuclear weapons' effects on an actor's success in coercive diplomacy are in part a function of how nuclear weapons change the perceived costs of conflict. The authors argue that states can improve their allotment of a good or convince an opponent to back down and have shorter crises if their opponents have greater expected costs of crisis. Noting that nuclear weapons increase the costs of full-escalation scenarios but decrease their probability, it is uncertain what impact nuclear weapons should have on expected costs of conflict. The authors assess crisis outcomes from 1945 to 2000 using the International Crisis Behavior data set. The evidence confirms that nuclear actors are more likely to prevail when facing a nonnuclear state. The expected duration of crisis in such asymmetric directed dyads is substantially smaller than the duration of crisis for actors in nonnuclear dyads. Nuclear actors in asymmetric dyads are also more likely to prevail than states in symmetric nuclear dyads. © 2009 SAGE Publications.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002708330386}, Key = {fds292229} } | |
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