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| Publications of Bahar Leventoglu :chronological combined listing:%% Journal Articles @article{fds371080, Author = {Leventoğlu, B}, Title = {Bargaining power in crisis bargaining}, Journal = {Review of Economic Design}, Volume = {27}, Number = {4}, Pages = {825-847}, Year = {2023}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10058-022-00325-3}, Abstract = {A large body of game-theoretic work examines the process by which uncertainty can lead to inefficient war. In a typical crisis bargaining model, players negotiate according to a pre-specified game form and no player has the ability to change the rules of the game. However, when one of the parties has full bargaining power and is able to set the rules of the game on her own, the game itself becomes an endogenous decision variable. I formulate this problem in a principal-agent framework. I show that both the likelihood of costly war and the exact mechanism that yields it depend on the nature of the informational problem and the identity of the informed player.}, Doi = {10.1007/s10058-022-00325-3}, Key = {fds371080} } @article{fds333808, Author = {Leventoğlu, B}, Title = {Bargaining with habit formation}, Journal = {Economic Theory}, Volume = {64}, Number = {3}, Pages = {477-508}, Publisher = {Springer Nature}, Year = {2017}, Month = {October}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00199-016-0994-z}, Abstract = {Habit formation is a well-documented behavioral regularity in psychology and economics; however, its implications on bargaining outcomes have so far been overlooked. I study an otherwise standard Rubinstein bargaining model with habit-forming players. In equilibrium, a player can strategically exploit his opponent’s habit- forming behavior via unilateral transfers off the equilibrium path to generate endogenous costs and gain bargaining leverage at no cost to himself on the equilibrium path. Uncertainty about habit formation may lead to delay in agreement.}, Doi = {10.1007/s00199-016-0994-z}, Key = {fds333808} } @article{fds336486, Author = {Leventoğlu, B and Metternich, NW}, Title = {Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti-Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars}, Journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {62}, Number = {3}, Pages = {581-596}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2018}, Month = {July}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12356}, Abstract = {All rebel organizations start weak, but how do they grow and achieve favorable conflict outcomes? We present a theoretical model that allows for rebel organizations to gain support beyond their “core” and build their bargaining power during fighting. We highlight that rebel organizations need to win over crucial parts of society to generate the necessary support that allows them to attain favorable civil conflict outcomes. We find empirical support for the argument that low-income individuals who initially fight the government (rebel organizations) have to convince middle-class individuals to turn out against the government to gain government concessions. Empirically, we demonstrate that government concessions in the form of peace agreements and the onset of negotiations become more likely when protest occurs in the context of civil conflicts.}, Doi = {10.1111/ajps.12356}, Key = {fds336486} } @article{fds287743, Author = {Leventoğlu, B and Tarar, A}, Title = {Does Private Information Lead to Delay or War in Crisis Bargaining?*}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {52}, Number = {3}, Pages = {533-553}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2008}, Month = {September}, ISSN = {0020-8833}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000258289600005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00514.x}, Key = {fds287743} } @article{fds287741, Author = {B. Leventoglu and Tarar, A and Leventoglu, B}, Title = {Limited Audience Costs in International Crises}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {57}, Number = {6}, Pages = {1065-1089}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2012}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002712459713}, Abstract = {Do audience costs have to be extremely large in order to credibly signal resolve and affect international crises? Existing theoretical work on audience costs suggests an affirmative answer, and recent empirical work on audience costs focuses on whether a leader can generate such large audience costs as to create a commitment to fight where no such commitment previously existed. We analyze a richer crisis bargaining model with audience costs and find that (1) audience costs can have war-reducing effects on incomplete-information crisis bargaining through a noninformative, bargaining-leverage mechanism and (2) audience costs can have war-reducing effects even when such large audience costs are not being generated as to create a commitment to fight where no such commitment previously existed. Even more limited audience costs can have war-reducing effects in international crises. We discuss how the bargaining-leverage mechanism is consistent with a number of prominent historical cases. © The Author(s) 2012.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002712459713}, Key = {fds287741} } @article{fds287739, Author = {B. Leventoglu and Epstein, D and O'Halloran, S}, Title = {Minorities and Democratization}, Journal = {Economics and Politics}, Volume = {24}, Number = {3}, Pages = {259-278}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2012}, ISSN = {0954-1985}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000309911700002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {We analyze the process of democratization in a polity with groups that are divided along ethnic as well as economic lines. We show that: (i) the presence of ethnic minorities, in general, makes peaceful democratic transitions less likely; (ii) minorities suffer from discriminatory policies less in democracies with intermediate levels of income inequality; and (iii) in new democracies with low levels of income inequality, politics is divided along ethnic lines, and at greater levels of inequality economic cleavages predominate. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-0343.2012.00403.x}, Key = {fds287739} } @article{fds287746, Author = {Leventoǧlu, B and Tarar, A}, Title = {Prenegotiation public commitment in domestic and international bargaining}, Journal = {American Political Science Review}, Volume = {99}, Number = {3}, Pages = {419-433}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2005}, Month = {August}, ISSN = {0003-0554}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000231547800008&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {We use a formal bargaining model to examine why, in many domestic and international bargaining situations, one or both negotiators make public statements in front of their constituents committing themselves to obtaining certain benefits in the negotiations. We find that making public commitments provides bargaining leverage, when backing down from such commitments carries domestic political costs. However, when the two negotiators face fairly similar costs for violating a public commitment, a prisoner's dilemma is created in which both sides make high public demands which cannot be satisfied, and both negotiators would be better off if they could commit to not making public demands. However, making a public demand is a dominant strategy for each negotiator, and this leads to a suboptimal outcome. Escaping this prisoner's dilemma provides a rationale for secret negotiations. Testable hypotheses are derived from the nature of the commitments and agreements made in equilibrium.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0003055405051750}, Key = {fds287746} } @article{fds287742, Author = {Tarar, A and Leventoǧlu, B}, Title = {Public commitment in crisis bargaining}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {53}, Number = {3}, Pages = {817-839}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2009}, Month = {September}, ISSN = {0020-8833}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000269679000012&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {The "audience cost" literature argues that highly-resolved leaders can use public threats to credibly signal their resolve in incomplete-information crisis bargaining, thereby overcoming informational asymmetries that lead to war. If democracies are better able to generate audience costs, then audience costs help explain the democratic peace. We use a game-theoretic model to show how public commitments can be used coercively as a source of bargaining leverage, even in a complete-information setting in which they have no signaling role. When both sides use public commitments for bargaining leverage, war becomes an equilibrium outcome. The results provide a rationale for secret negotiations as well as hypotheses about when leaders will claim that the disputed good is indivisible, recognized as a rationalist explanation for war. Claims of indivisibility may just be bargaining tactics to get the other side to make big concessions, and compromise is still possible in equilibrium. © 2009 International Studies Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00557.x}, Key = {fds287742} } @article{fds287745, Author = {Leventoǧlu, B}, Title = {Social mobility and political transitions}, Journal = {Journal of Theoretical Politics}, Volume = {17}, Number = {4}, Pages = {465-496}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2005}, Month = {October}, ISSN = {0951-6298}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000232470400004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {I address the role of social mobility in political transitions. I develop a political economy model of regime transitions that incorporates social mobility as a key feature of the economy capturing the political attitudes toward redistribution. I show that social mobility facilitates democratization by reducing the conflict over redistribution between the rich and the poor. Furthermore, it facilitates democratic consolidation by reducing the likelihood of a coup under democracy. On the other hand, social mobility helps to keep an authoritarian regime stable by reducing the likelihood of mass movements against political elites. Copyright © 2005 Sage Publications.}, Doi = {10.1177/0951629805056897}, Key = {fds287745} } @article{fds287740, Author = {Leventoglu, B}, Title = {Social Mobility, Middle Class and Political Transitions}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Volume = {58}, Number = {5}, Pages = {825-864}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2012}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002713478563}, Abstract = {This article addresses the highly variable middle-class attitudes regarding political transitions and suggests that social mobility is a key factor conditioning its behavior. Social mobility creates a trade-off for the middle class between autocracy, which yields lower redistribution today, and democracy, which guarantees higher redistribution tomorrow. The way this trade-off is resolved impacts middle-class attitudes toward democratic transitions. Even when the middle class prefers lower redistribution levels under autocracy today, the middle class may prefer democracy today to guarantee higher levels of redistribution in the future, if it feels vulnerable about its future prospects.}, Doi = {10.1177/0022002713478563}, Key = {fds287740} } @article{fds287744, Author = {Leventoǧlu, B and Slantchev, BL}, Title = {The armed peace: A punctuated equilibrium theory of war}, Journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {51}, Number = {4}, Pages = {755-771}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2007}, Month = {October}, ISSN = {0092-5853}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000249923300004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {According to a leading rationalist explanation, war can break out when a large, rapid shift of power causes a credible commitment problem. This mechanism does not specify how inefficient fighting can resolve this cause, so it is an incomplete explanation of war. We present a complete information model of war as a sequence of battles and show that although opportunities for a negotiated settlement arise throughout, the very desirability of peace creates a commitment problem that undermines its likelihood. Because players have incentives to settle as soon as possible, they cannot credibly threaten to fight long enough if an opponent launches a surprise attack. This decreases the expected duration and costs of war and causes mutual deterrence to fail. Fighting's destructiveness improves the credibility of these threats by decreasing the benefits from continuing the war and can eventually lead to peace. In equilibrium players can only terminate war at specific windows of opportunity and fighting results in escalating costs that can leave both players worse off at the time peace is negotiated than a full concession would have before the war began. © 2007, Midwest Political Science Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00279.x}, Key = {fds287744} } | |
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