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| Publications of Erik Wibbels :recent first alphabetical by type listing:%% @misc{fds318665, Author = {Roberts, KM and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Party systems and electoral volatility in Latin America: A test of economic, institutional, and structural explanations}, Journal = {American Political Science Review}, Volume = {93}, Number = {3}, Pages = {575-590}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {1999}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2585575}, Abstract = {Three different theoretical explanations are tested for the exceptionally high level of electoral volatility found in contemporary Latin America: economic voting, institutional characteristics of political regimes and party systems, and the structure and organization of class cleavages. A pooled cross-sectional time-series regression analysis is conducted on 58 congressional elections and 43 presidential elections in 16 Latin American countries during the 1980s and 1990s. Institutional variables have the most consistent effect on volatility, while the influence of economic performance is heavily contingent upon the type of election and whether the dependent variable is operationalized as incumbent vote change or aggregate electoral volatility. The results demonstrate that electoral volatility is a function of short-term economic perturbations, the institutional fragilities of both democratic regimes and party systems, and relatively fluid cleavage structures.}, Doi = {10.2307/2585575}, Key = {fds318665} } @article{fds303791, Author = {Wibbels, E and Roberts, K}, Title = {Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explorations}, Journal = {American Political Science Review}, Volume = {33}, Number = {03}, Pages = {575-590}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {1999}, Month = {September}, ISSN = {1537-5943}, Key = {fds303791} } @article{fds250550, Author = {Remmer, KL and Wibbels, E}, Title = {The subnational politics of economic adjustment: Provincial politics and fiscal performance in Argentina}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {33}, Number = {4}, Pages = {419-451}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2000}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {1552-3829}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414000033004001}, Abstract = {Existing research has failed to address the impact of subnational politics on economic adjustment. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining theoretical reasons for anticipating policy divergences across levels of government and by offering three hypotheses to account for variation at the subnational level. The authors explore these ideas on the basis of the Argentine experience. The study traces the impact of subnational policy on Argentine economic adjustment and tests hypotheses about subnational policy variation on the basis of provincial fiscal data. The authors' findings underline the importance of subnational policy choice for national performance and suggest a revised understanding of the role of political competition in the economic adjustment process. The authors find considerable evidence that interactions between party competition and the structure of the public sector shape provincial fiscal performance and thereby condition the capacity for economic adjustment at the national level.}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414000033004001}, Key = {fds250550} } @article{fds250551, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Federalism and the politics of macroeconomic policy and performance}, Journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {44}, Number = {4}, Pages = {687-702}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2000}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {1540-5907}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2669275}, Abstract = {Using economic data for the period between 1979 and 1995 for forty-six large federal and unitary developing nations, I analyze the impact of political federalism in the developing world on a number of measures of national economic adjustment, volatility, and crisis. The findings suggest that federalism in the ten nations where it operates has, as theoretically predicted, a negative effect on macroeconomic performance and reform. I argue that the macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances experienced by these federal nations are, in part, structurally determined by their devolved political and fiscal institutions that create incentives for subnational governments to avoid the political costs of fiscal adjustment.}, Doi = {10.2307/2669275}, Key = {fds250551} } @article{fds318664, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Federal politics and market reform in the developing world}, Journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, Volume = {36}, Number = {2}, Pages = {27-53}, Publisher = {Springer Nature}, Year = {2001}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02686208}, Abstract = {Prior research on the politics of market reform in developing nations has generally ignored the significant role of federal political and economic arrangements in shaping adjustment processes. In contrast, this research develops a model of macroeconomic reform that accounts for the significance of subnational economic policy in the developing world's nine major federations. I examine five hypotheses which are expected to influence the capacity of developing federations to conduct policy consistent with the exigencies of market pressures. With the use of a cross-sectional time-series analysis of fiscal and monetary policies, I show that the policy divergence between levels of government shrinks when provincial governments have greater fiscal power and there are high degrees of party centralization across levels of government. These findings have important implications for the political economy of market reform, the widespread move toward fiscal decentralization, and the design of regional supranational institutions.}, Doi = {10.1007/BF02686208}, Key = {fds318664} } @article{fds348991, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil. Scott P. Mainwaring}, Journal = {Journal of Politics}, Volume = {63}, Number = {1}, Pages = {341-342}, Publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, Year = {2001}, Month = {February}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/jop.63.1.2691926}, Doi = {10.1086/jop.63.1.2691926}, Key = {fds348991} } @article{fds348990, Author = {Wibbels, E and Aguilar, EE}, Title = {Book Reviews}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {34}, Number = {3}, Pages = {328-334}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2001}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414001034003005}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414001034003005}, Key = {fds348990} } @article{fds250552, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Federal Politics and Market Reform in the Developing World}, Journal = {Studies and Comparative and International Development}, Volume = {36}, Pages = {27-53}, Year = {2001}, Month = {September}, Key = {fds250552} } @article{fds318663, Author = {Rodden, J and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Beyond the fiction of federalism microeconomic management in multitiered systems}, Journal = {World Politics}, Volume = {54}, Number = {4}, Pages = {494-531}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2002}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2002.0016}, Abstract = {Recent research on federalism is extremely divided. While some tout the benefits of "market-preserving" federalism, others point to the fragmentation and incoherence of policy in federal states. This research bridges the divide by analyzing the political and fiscal structures that are likely to account for the highly divergent economic experiences of federal systems around the world. To test these propositions, the authors use an original data set to conduct analyses of budget balance and inflation in fifteen federations around the world from 1978 through 1996. The empirical research suggests that the level of fiscal decentralization, the nature of intergovernmental finance, and vertical partisan relations all influence macroeconomic outcomes. The findings have broad implications for the widespread move toward greater decentralization and for the theoretical literatures on federalism and macroeconomics.}, Doi = {10.1353/wp.2002.0016}, Key = {fds318663} } @article{fds250553, Author = {Wibbels, E and Rodden, J}, Title = {Beyond the Fiction of Federalism: Macroeconomic Management in Multitiered Systems}, Journal = {World Politics}, Pages = {494-531}, Year = {2002}, Month = {July}, Key = {fds250553} } @article{fds250554, Author = {Wibbels, E and Arce, M}, Title = {Globalization, Taxation, and Burden-Shifting in Latin America}, Journal = {International Organization}, Volume = {57}, Number = {01}, Pages = {111-136}, Year = {2003}, Abstract = {Most researchers interested in the relationship between global markets and public policy focus on advanced industrial democracies. In contrast, we examine competing hypotheses as to globalization's effect on governments by expanding the scope of the discussion to include developing nations. More specifically, we investigate the relationship between international market integration and the evolving burden of taxation on capital, as well as the subsequent response of markets to shifts in tax policy in Latin America since the late 1970s. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, we find that global market forces are more constraining vis-à-vis tax policy in Latin America than in the world's wealthiest nations. Despite these market-based pressures, however, national politics continue to influence tax policy in Latin America in a manner consistent with findings on advanced industrial democracies. As such, developing nations continue to have some room to manipulate policy, though within the context of a more strictly neoliberal context than their counterparts in advanced industrial democracies.}, Key = {fds250554} } @article{fds250555, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Bailouts, Budget Constraints, and Leviathans: Comparative Federalism and Lessons from the Early US}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Pages = {475-508}, Year = {2003}, Key = {fds250555} } @article{fds318662, Author = {Wibbels, E and Arce, M}, Title = {Globalization, taxation, and burden-shifting in Latin America}, Journal = {International Organization}, Volume = {57}, Number = {1}, Pages = {111-136}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2003}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818303571041}, Abstract = {Most researchers interested in the relationship between global markets and public policy focus on advanced industrial democracies. In contrast, we examine competing hypotheses as 10 globalization's effect on governments by expanding the scope of the discussion to include developing nations. More specifically, we investigate the relationship between international market integration and the evolving burden of taxation on capital, as well as the subsequent response of markets to shifts in tax policy in Latin America since the late 1970s. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, we find that global market forces are more constraining vis-à-vis tax policy in Latin America than in the world's wealthiest nations. Despite these market-based pressures, however, national politics continue to influence tax policy in Latin America in a manner consistent with findings on advanced industrial democracies. As such, developing nations continue to have some room to manipulate policy, though within the context of a more strictly neoliberal context than their counter-parts in advanced industrial democracies.}, Doi = {10.1017/s0020818303571041}, Key = {fds318662} } @article{fds318661, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Bailouts, budget constraints, and leviathans comparative federalism and lessons from the early United States}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {36}, Number = {5}, Pages = {475-508}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2003}, Month = {June}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414003036005001}, Abstract = {Recent research on federations, particularly in the developing world, emphasizes the importance of hard budget constraints and a strong central government to attenuate intergovernmental economic conflicts. Such research fails on two counts. First, it does not explain how hard budget constraints emerge or become self-enforcing. Second, it does not take into account the insight of the market-preserving federalism literature that central governments strong enough to impose restraint on regions are likely too powerful to be checked in a manner consistent with the long-term health of markets. Unfortunately, the market-preserving federalism literature itself provides little insight into how to move from a market-distorting to a market-preserving equilibrium. This article answers these theoretical shortcomings with reference to the evolution of political competition at the regional level and the representation of those regions at the national level. More specifically, whereas regional competition determines the subnational demand for soft budget constraints, the coalition of those regions at the national level determines the likelihood of their provision. Empirically, the research relies on a case study of the state debt crisis of the 1840s when the United States made a definitive movement toward market-preserving federalism.}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414003036005001}, Key = {fds318661} } @article{fds250556, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Decentralized Governance, Constitution Formation, and Redistribution}, Journal = {Constitutional Political Economy}, Volume = {16}, Number = {2}, Pages = {161-188}, Publisher = {Springer-Verlag}, Year = {2005}, ISSN = {1572-9966}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10602-005-2234-6}, Abstract = {What determines the relative strength of central and regional governments? Why do centers engage in more or less geographically based economic redistribution? And why do some centers redistribute from urban to rural areas while others do the opposite? This research answers these questions with reference to decentralized politics at key constitutional moments. Much contemporary research underscores the importance of the intergovernmental balance of power - be it in taxing authority or decision making autonomy - on economic outcomes. Many features of that balance are rooted in bargains struck at the time of constitution writing. Here, I suggest that the key ingredients in such bargains are the number of conflicting geographically salient factor endowments, the distribution of inter-regional inequality, and the degree of intra-state inequality within rural and urban regions. The greater the level of factoral conflict, the more elites who engage in constitutional negotiations are likely to constrain the central government by providing for substantial regional veto authority. Higher levels of inter-regional inequality heighten demands for inter-regional redistribution. Given some level of regional demand for central redistribution, whether its net effect is in favor of urban or rural regions will depend on the coalitional implications of inequality within regions. I examine the argument in light of the U.S., Argentine, and Indian processes of constitution formation. © 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.}, Doi = {10.1007/s10602-005-2234-6}, Key = {fds250556} } @book{fds250565, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Federalism and the Market}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, Year = {2005}, Key = {fds250565} } @book{fds318660, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Federalism and the market: Intergovernmental conflict and economic reform in the developing world}, Pages = {1-276}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, Year = {2005}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {0521843812}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511510441}, Abstract = {This book, first published in 2005, develops a comparative model of intergovernmental bargaining to account for variation in the capacity of federations in the developing world to undertake economic policy reform, suggesting that many market reform policies are a function of a constant process of bargaining between national and regional leaders struggling for political survival. As the degree of national-regional disagreement mounts, collective action on reforms that require implementation at multiple levels of government becomes more difficult. The degree to which the two factors conflict depends on four factors: the individual electoral interests, a shared intergovernmental fiscal system, the manner in which regional interests are represented in national policy making and the levers of partisan influence national leaders have over subnational politicians. In testing the argument with a combination of cross-sectional time-series and case study analysis, this book contributes to the broad literatures on development and the comparative political economy of federalism and decentralization.}, Doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511510441}, Key = {fds318660} } @article{fds348989, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Book Review: Designing Federalism: A Theory of Self-Sustainable Federal Institutions}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {38}, Number = {4}, Pages = {446-450}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2005}, Month = {May}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414004273207}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414004273207}, Key = {fds348989} } @misc{fds250557, Author = {Wibbels, E and Rodden, J}, Title = {Business Cycles and the Political Economy of Decentralized Finance: Lessons for Fiscal Federalism in the E.U.}, Booktitle = {Fiscal Policy Surveillance in Europe}, Editor = {Wierts, D and Flores, and Turrini}, Year = {2006}, Key = {fds250557} } @article{fds250577, Author = {Wibbels, E and Bakke, K}, Title = {Regional Inequality, Ethnic Diversity, and Conflict in Federal States}, Journal = {World Politics}, Volume = {October}, Pages = {1-50}, Year = {2006}, Key = {fds250577} } @article{fds250576, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Dependency revisited: International markets, business cycles, and social spending in the developing world}, Journal = {International Organization}, Volume = {60}, Number = {2}, Pages = {433-468}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2006}, Month = {April}, ISSN = {0020-8183}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000237364900005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {While increased exposure to the global economy is associated with increased welfare effort in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the opposite holds in the developing world. These differences are typically explained with reference to domestic politics. Tradables, unions, and the like in the developing world are assumed to have less power or interests divergent to those in the OECD-interests that militate against social spending. I claim that such arguments can be complemented with a recognition that developed and developing nations have distinct patterns of integration into global markets. While income shocks associated with international markets are quite modest in the OECD, they are profound in developing nations. In the OECD, governments can respond to those shocks by borrowing on capital markets and spending countercyclically on social programs. No such opportunity exists for most governments in the developing world, most of which have limited access to capital markets in tough times, more significant incentives to balance budgets, and as a result cut social spending at the times it is most needed. Thus, while internationally inspired volatility and income shocks seem not to threaten the underpinnings of the welfare state in rich nations, it undercuts the capacity of governments in the developing world to smooth consumption (and particularly consumption by the poor) across the business cycle. © 2006 by The IO Foundation.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0020818306060139}, Key = {fds250576} } @article{fds250575, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Madison in Baghdad? Decentralization and federalism in comparative politics}, Journal = {Annual Review of Political Science}, Volume = {9}, Number = {1}, Pages = {165-188}, Publisher = {ANNUAL REVIEWS}, Year = {2006}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {1094-2939}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000238980300010&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {Research on comparative decentralization and federalism is a booming industry. Recent research integrates insights from political science, economics, and economic history in emphasizing the importance of incentives for the operation of decentralized government. Such work has focused particular attention on fiscal, representative, and party institutions. In reviewing the past decade's research, I make two arguments. First, the comparative research on decentralization and federalism provides a model for how comparative politics can address some of the most profound questions in social thought by focusing on a theoretically and empirically tractable aspect of governance. Second, although the research addresses many of the key questions in comparative politics, it also struggles with some of the same problems and challenges as comparative politics writ large, particularly the issue of institutional endogeneity. Attention to endogeneity is central to better understanding the workings of decentralized governments and providing less facile policy recommendations for the reform of places as diverse as the United States and Iraq.}, Doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.062404.170504}, Key = {fds250575} } @article{fds318659, Author = {Bakke, KM and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Diversity, disparity, and civil conflict in federal states}, Journal = {World Politics}, Volume = {59}, Number = {1}, Pages = {1-50}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, Year = {2006}, Month = {October}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0013}, Abstract = {Policymakers and scholars have turned their attention to federalism as a means for managing conflicts between central governments and subnational interests. But both the theoretical literature and the empirical track record of federations make for opposing conclusions concerning federalism's ability to prevent civil conflict. This article argues that the existing literature falls short on two accounts: first, it lacks a systematic comparison of peaceful and conflict-ridden cases across federal states, and second, while some studies acknowledge that there is no one-size-fits-all federal solution, the conditional ingredients of peace-preserving federalism have not been theorized. The authors make the argument that the peace-preserving effect of specific federal traits - fiscal decentralization, fiscal transfers, and political copartisanship - are conditional on a society's income level and ethnic composition. The argument is tested across twenty-two federal states from 1978 to 2000.}, Doi = {10.1353/wp.2007.0013}, Key = {fds318659} } @article{fds318658, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {No method to the comparative politics madness}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {40}, Number = {1}, Pages = {39-44}, Year = {2007}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414006294817}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414006294817}, Key = {fds318658} } @article{fds318656, Author = {Caporaso, JA and Kitschelt, HP and Wibbels, EM and Wilkinson, SI}, Title = {Fortieth anniversary issue}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {41}, Number = {4-5}, Pages = {405-411}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2008}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414007313252}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414007313252}, Key = {fds318656} } @article{fds318657, Author = {Goldberg, E and Wibbels, E and Mvukiyehe, E}, Title = {Lessons from strange cases: Democracy, development, and the resource curse in the U.S. States}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {41}, Number = {4-5}, Pages = {477-514}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2008}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414007313123}, Abstract = {The work linking natural resource wealth to authoritarianism and under-development suffers from several shortcomings. In this article, the authors outline those shortcomings and address them in a new empirical setting. Using a new data set for the U.S. states spanning 73 years and case studies of Texas and Louisiana, the authors are able to more carefully examine both the diachronic nature and comparative legs of the resource curse hypothesis than previous research has. They provide evidence that natural resource dependence contributes to slower economic growth, poorer developmental performance, and less competitive politics. Using this empirical setting, they also begin parsing the mechanisms that might explain the negative association between resource wealth and political and economic development. They draw implications from intranational findings for resource abundant countries across the world and suggest directions for future cross-national and cross-state work. © 2008 Sage Publications.}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414007313123}, Key = {fds318657} } @book{fds309883, Author = {E. Wibbels and J. Caporaso and S. Wilkinson and H. Kitschelt}, Title = {Research Frontiers in Comparative Politics: A Special Issue of Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {41}, Number = {4/5}, Booktitle = {special edited volume of the journal Comparative Political Studies}, Editor = {Wibbels, E and Caporaso, J and Wilkinson, S and Kitschelt, H}, Year = {2008}, Month = {May}, Key = {fds309883} } @misc{fds250559, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {The Geography of Peace and Violence in Iraq}, Journal = {The News and Observer}, Year = {2008}, Month = {August}, Key = {fds250559} } @misc{fds250560, Author = {Wibbels, E and Pierskalla, J}, Title = {Natural Resources and Human Development in the American States}, Year = {2009}, Key = {fds250560} } @misc{fds250561, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {A Federal Bailout for the States}, Journal = {San Diego Tribune, Detroit Free Press, Raleigh News and Observer}, Year = {2009}, Month = {January}, Key = {fds250561} } @article{fds250580, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Cores, peripheries, and contemporary political economy}, Journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, Volume = {44}, Number = {4}, Pages = {441-449}, Publisher = {Springer Nature}, Year = {2009}, Month = {July}, ISSN = {0039-3606}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000270192200009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {This note underscores the need for more precise causal theories linking the international division of labor, national economies, and public policies. To that end, the author recommends two literatures upon which a revised dependency theory might build, namely, those on economic geography and the political economy of redistribution. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009.}, Doi = {10.1007/s12116-009-9044-1}, Key = {fds250580} } @article{fds318655, Author = {Rodden, J and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Fiscal decentralization and the business cycle: An empirical study of seven federations}, Journal = {Economics & Politics}, Volume = {22}, Number = {1}, Pages = {37-67}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2010}, Month = {March}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.2009.00350.x}, Abstract = {Although fiscal policies of central governments sometimes provide modest insurance against regional income shocks, this paper shows that procyclical fiscal policy among provincial governments can easily overwhelm these stabilizing effects. We examine the cyclicality of budget items among provincial governments in seven federations, showing that own-source taxes are generally highly procyclical, and contrary to common wisdom, revenue sharing and discretionary transfers are either acyclical or procyclical. Constituent governments are thus left alone to smooth their own shocks, and we document the extent to which various restraints on borrowing and saving undermine their ability to do so. The resulting procyclicality of provincial fiscal policy is likely to have important implications in a world where demands for countercyclical fiscal policy are increasing but considerable fiscal responsibilities are being devolved to subnational governments. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-0343.2009.00350.x}, Key = {fds318655} } @article{fds250579, Author = {Wibbels, E and Roberts, K}, Title = {The Politics of Economic Crisis in Latin America}, Journal = {Studies in Comparative International Development}, Volume = {45}, Number = {4}, Pages = {383-409}, Publisher = {Springer Nature}, Year = {2010}, Month = {December}, ISSN = {0039-3606}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000284424200001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {Researchers widely recognize that economic crises have important political consequences, yet there is little systematic research on the political factors that make nations more or less susceptible to economic crisis. Scholars have long debated the economic consequences of party systems, executive powers, and societal interest groups, but their relationships to crisis proclivity are poorly understood. We assess the political correlates of economic crisis using a cross-sectional time-series analysis of 17 Latin American countries over nearly three decades. Crises are measured along two dimensions-depth and duration-and disaggregated into three types: inflationary, GDP, and fiscal crises. Statistical results suggest that political institutions have a modest, and often unexpected, correlation with crises. More important than institutional attributes are social organization and the nature of party-society linkages, particularly the existence of a densely-organized trade union movement and/or a powerful leftist party. Strong unions and powerful parties of the left are associated with more severe economic crises, though there is some evidence that the combination of left-labor strength can alleviate inflationary crises. The results demonstrate the need to disaggregate the concept of economic crisis and incorporate the societal dimension when studying the political economy of crisis and reform. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.}, Doi = {10.1007/s12116-010-9072-x}, Key = {fds250579} } @article{fds250571, Author = {Wibbels, E and Rodden, J}, Title = {The Nationalization of Elections}, Journal = {Party Politics}, Volume = {17}, Number = {September}, Pages = {629-654}, Year = {2011}, Key = {fds250571} } @article{fds250572, Author = {Wibbels, E and Goldberg, E}, Title = {The Geography of Natural Resources and Development."}, Journal = {World Politics}, Year = {2011}, Key = {fds250572} } @article{fds250574, Author = {Wibbels, E and Ahlquist, JS}, Title = {Development, Trade, and Social Insurance}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {55}, Number = {1}, Pages = {125-149}, Publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, Year = {2011}, Month = {March}, ISSN = {0020-8833}, url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000288076100006&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=47d3190e77e5a3a53558812f597b0b92}, Abstract = {Developing countries vary dramatically in the amount they spend on social insurance. We establish a theoretical framework linking autarkic post-World War II economic development strategies with the emergence of insurance-based social policies. We argue that a government's choice of development strategy is conditioned by the size of the domestic market, relative abundance of labor, and land inequality in the context of a closed international trading system. The development strategy in turn shapes the fiscal priority governments place on social insurance. Contrary to the compensation hypothesis prominent in studies of the rich democracies, protectionist countries emphasize social insurance. Empirical analysis finds support for our argument. The results suggest that economic policies in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s had important implications for the emergence and current contours of social policy in the developing world. These differences in priorities swamp recent within-country changes. © 2011 International Studies Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00638.x}, Key = {fds250574} } @article{fds318654, Author = {Rodden, J and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Dual accountability and the nationalization of party competition: Evidence from four federations}, Journal = {Party Politics}, Volume = {17}, Number = {5}, Pages = {629-653}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2011}, Month = {September}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354068810376182}, Abstract = {This paper assesses the extent to which party systems are nationalized in four federations. In doing so, the research addresses two questions. First, is dual accountability operational across decentralized countries, or do sub-national voters turn to national cues as a means to economize in a complex information environment? By bringing a cross-national dataset to bear on this question, we are able to provide insight into where and why dual accountability might operate. Second, what explains variation in the extent to which party systems are nationalized across countries and time? We build on previous literature to suggest a number of factors likely to impact the extent of nationalization. We examine those factors in the context of provincial-level elections in Argentina, Canada, Germany and the United States. Using national and sub-national economic data, we find little evidence of dual accountability in any of our countries. We find that economic performance matters little for regional electoral outcomes, and where it does, sub-national outcomes reflect national rather than sub-national conditions. More important are the roles of partisan relations across levels of government and election timing. Sub-national co-partisans of the nationally governing party lose votes, particularly as the time from the most recent national election grows. The strength of these effects varies across our cases in predictable ways. © The Author(s) 2010.}, Doi = {10.1177/1354068810376182}, Key = {fds318654} } @article{fds250568, Author = {Wibbels, E and Ward, M and Hollenbach, F}, Title = {The Geography of Governance: Evidence from Satellite Imagery}, Journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, Year = {2012}, Key = {fds250568} } @article{fds250570, Author = {Wibbels, E and Beramendi, P}, Title = {The Political Geography of Constitutional Choice}, Journal = {Public Choice}, Year = {2012}, Key = {fds250570} } @article{fds250573, Author = {Wibbels, E and Ahlquist, J}, Title = {Inequality, Factor Prices and Political Regimes}, Journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, Pages = {447-464}, Year = {2012}, url = {http://people.duke.edu/~ew41/Research_files/AhlquistWibbelsRidingTheWaveJune2011_forweb.pdf}, Abstract = {Winner of the AJPS Best Article Award}, Key = {fds250573} } @article{fds318653, Author = {Ahlquist, JS and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Riding the Wave: World Trade and Factor-Based Models of Democratization}, Journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {56}, Number = {2}, Pages = {447-464}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2012}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00572.x}, Abstract = {Studies of "waves" of regime change, in which large numbers of countries experience similar political transitions at roughly similar periods of time, though once popular, have fallen from favor. Replacing the "third wave" arguments are several competing models relating domestic social structure-specifically, the distribution of income and factor ownership-to regime type. If any of these distributive models of regime type is correct, then global trade has an important explanatory role to play. Under factor-based models, changes in the world trading system will have systematic effects on regime dynamics. Trade openness determines labor's factor income and ultimately its political power. As world trade expands and contracts, countries with similar labor endowments should experience similar regime pressures at the same time. We propose a novel empirical specification that addresses the endogeneity and data-quality problems plaguing previous efforts to examine these arguments. We investigate the conditional impact of the global trading system on democratic transitions across 130 years and all of the states in the international system. Our findings cast doubt on the utility of factor-based models of democratization, despite their importance in fueling renewed interest in the topic. © 2012, Midwest Political Science Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00572.x}, Key = {fds318653} } @misc{fds250558, Author = {Rueda, D and Wibbels, E and Altamirano, M}, Title = {The Origins of Dualization}, Booktitle = {The Future of Democratic Capitalism}, Year = {2013}, Key = {fds250558} } @article{fds250563, Author = {Wibbels, E and McGee, H}, Title = {The Geography of Governance in Africa: Recent Evidence from Satellites, Field Experiments and Other New Sources}, Journal = {Federal and Regional Studies}, Year = {2013}, Key = {fds250563} } @article{fds348988, Author = {Christensen, D and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Labor Standards, Labor Endowments, and the Evolution of Inequality}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Year = {2013}, Key = {fds348988} } @article{fds220872, Author = {E. Wibbels and M. Ward and F. Hollenbach}, Title = {State Building and the Geography of Governance}, Journal = {International Organization}, Year = {2013}, Key = {fds220872} } @article{fds220871, Author = {E. Wibbels and P. Beramendi}, Title = {Foundational Bargains: Distributive Conflicts and Representation in the Birth of Federations}, Journal = {Economics and Politics}, Year = {2013}, Key = {fds220871} } @article{fds250567, Author = {Wibbels, E and Beramendi, P and Barber, B}, Title = {The Behavioral Foundations of Social Policy: Risk and Redistribution in a Laboratory Democracy}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Year = {2013}, Month = {February}, url = {http://people.duke.edu/~ew41/Research_files/behavioral}, Abstract = {Winner of the Fiona McGillivray Award for Best APSA Paper in Political Econom}, Key = {fds250567} } @article{fds250569, Author = {Wibbels, E and Christensen, D}, Title = {Labor Standards, Trade and the Evolution of Inequality}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Year = {2013}, Month = {April}, url = {http://people.duke.edu/~ew41/Research_files/ChristensenWibbels_ForWeb.pdf}, Key = {fds250569} } @article{fds318652, Author = {Barber, B and Beramendi, P and Wibbels, E}, Title = {The Behavioral Foundations of Social Politics: Evidence from Surveys and a Laboratory Democracy}, Journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, Volume = {46}, Number = {10}, Pages = {1155-1189}, Publisher = {SAGE Publications}, Year = {2013}, Month = {October}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414012472467}, Doi = {10.1177/0010414012472467}, Key = {fds318652} } @book{fds250566, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {Trade, Development and Social Insurance}, Year = {2014}, Key = {fds250566} } @article{fds220867, Author = {E. Wibbels and T. Gift}, Title = {Reading, Writing, and the Regrettable State of Education Research in Comparative Politics}, Journal = {Annual Review of Political Science}, Year = {2014}, Key = {fds220867} } @article{fds318651, Author = {Christensen, D and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Labor standards, labor endowments, and the evolution of inequality}, Journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, Volume = {58}, Number = {2}, Pages = {362-379}, Year = {2014}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12066}, Abstract = {Proponents often recommend high labor standards as a means of reducing inequality between and within countries. Opponents suggest that labor standards exacerbate international and domestic inequalities. In this paper, we forward a simple argument whereby the impact of higher labor standards on domestic inequality depends on a country's labor endowment. We hypothesize that where labor is abundant, higher standards will exacerbate inequality. Where labor is scarce, higher labor standards might lower inequality. In both cases, the impact of labor standards on inequality work through an employment and wage effect. Using newly available data on labor standards around the world from 1981 to 2000, we provide evidence largely consistent with our hypotheses. Higher labor standards do, indeed, exacerbate inequality in labor-abundant economies. On the other hand, higher labor standards lower inequality in labor-scarce economies. We discuss the implications of these findings for work on labor market insiders and outsiders as well as the political economy of development. © 2013 International Studies Association.}, Doi = {10.1111/isqu.12066}, Key = {fds318651} } @article{fds250564, Author = {Gift, T and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Reading, writing, and the regrettable status of education research in comparative politics}, Journal = {Annual Review of Political Science}, Volume = {17}, Number = {1}, Pages = {291-312}, Publisher = {ANNUAL REVIEWS}, Year = {2014}, Month = {January}, ISSN = {1094-2939}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-080911-131426}, Abstract = {Apart from some notable exceptions, education is regrettably understudied in comparative politics. This paucity stems from both a dearth of reliable data on schooling and the fact that education raises analytical issues that fall outside the typical domain of political scientists. In light of education's crucial role in everything from citizen attitudes to earnings to economic growth, we recommend that political scientists pay more attention to education. In particular, comparative researchers should shift from an almost exclusive focus on average levels of schooling to explaining the causes and consequences of educational inequality. To that end, we provide a broad comparative framework for analyzing the politics of education. In our formulation, skill-biased technological change and factor endowments condition the extent to which firms demand human capital. The supply of skills is a function of the interests and institutions that link voters and politicians. We conclude by positing theoretical and empirical puzzles for future research. Copyright © 2014 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.}, Doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-080911-131426}, Key = {fds250564} } @article{fds250548, Author = {Huntington, H and Wibbels, E}, Title = {The Geography of Governance in Africa: New Tools from Satellites, Surveys and Mapping Initiatives}, Journal = {Regional and Federal Studies}, Volume = {24}, Number = {5}, Pages = {625-645}, Year = {2014}, Month = {October}, ISSN = {1359-7566}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2014.971774}, Abstract = {Abstract: Research on decentralization in Africa and beyond has made clear that the quality of decentralized governance is highly variable across localities within countries. In light of that variation, this article has three goals: first, we critique existing academic research on the quality of governance in light of work on decentralized governance in Africa; second, we provide a conceptual map of how to theorize subnational variation in the quality of governance in settings characterized by considerable dependence on higher authorities for revenues; and third, we outline a series of data initiatives that offer the opportunity to study local and regional politics in new and exciting ways across the region. We conclude with great optimism about the prospects for innovative work on decentralized governance within countries across the region.}, Doi = {10.1080/13597566.2014.971774}, Key = {fds250548} } @misc{fds318650, Author = {Rueda, D and Wibbels, E and Altamirano, M}, Title = {The origins of dualism}, Pages = {89-111}, Booktitle = {The Politics of Advanced Capitalism}, Publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, Year = {2015}, Month = {January}, ISBN = {9781107099869}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316163245.004}, Abstract = {From Spain and Greece to Brazil and South Africa, dualized labor markets are a worldwide phenomenon. In many countries, workers are divided between those with permanent contracts that include valuable benefits and extensive labor market protections and those who work under contingent contracts or no contracts at all. This latter group receives few or no labor market protections and lower levels of social benefits. They are the world’s labor market outsiders. Recent research has suggested that this pool of outsiders has important implications for the nature of democratic politics in the twenty-first century, an argument that is perfectly in line with the core idea of this book, namely, that coalitional alignments among different labor market groups are at the heart of postindustrial reform strategies. Yet the extent of dualization varies hugely across countries. Data on the size of the informal sector around the world (from Schneider et al. 2010) show that while there is clearly a negative association between the wealth of societies and the extent of dualization, there is also huge variation both within and across rich and developing nations. In the OECD context, the process of dualization has been linked to a number of political and economic processes: increasing competition in manufacturing, the rise of the service sector, the decline of unionization, political choices by Left governments, and others. Echoes of these arguments are present in work on developing countries, where dualization is closely linked to the informal sector and has received a lot of attention from economists and sociologists (if not political scientists). Indeed, a long tradition of models in development economics emphasize the stark income and productivity gaps inherent in “dual economies” and the uneven growth that characterizes broad swaths of the developing world (Rosenstein-Rodan 1943; Ray 2010). Yet while all of these arguments emphasize important features of dualization, they often focus on the consequences rather than the causes of labor market dualism.}, Doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316163245.004}, Key = {fds318650} } @article{fds318649, Author = {Beramendi, P and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Globalization, public finance, and poverty}, Journal = {International Studies Review}, Volume = {17}, Number = {4}, Pages = {677-685}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2015}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/misr.12270}, Abstract = {Global economic forces might impact poverty in any number of direct ways by reducing prices, providing access to larger pools of capital, or creating and destroying jobs. Such forces might also work indirectly, that is, through their effect on labor standards, unionization rates, or the development of labor-saving technology. For countries with greater fiscal capacity, there is a growing tension between any potential desire for progressivity and the need to compete for footloose capital. To the extent the latter results in reliance on regressive tax expenditures, globalization is likely to worsen the relative position of the poor. Together, these points emphasize data challenges inherent to establishing a causal relationship between globalization and poverty. Taking incidence seriously has important analytical implications for understanding the political engagement by the poor in developed and developing democracies. The government should replace broad and probably insupportable claims on the effect of globalization on pro-poor tax and expenditure policies with more careful analyses of the actual incidence of fiscal policy.}, Doi = {10.1111/misr.12270}, Key = {fds318649} } @article{fds318648, Author = {Johnson, SL and Wibbels, E and Wilkinson, R}, Title = {Economic inequality is related to cross-national prevalence of psychotic symptoms.}, Journal = {Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology}, Volume = {50}, Number = {12}, Pages = {1799-1807}, Year = {2015}, Month = {December}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00127-015-1112-4}, Abstract = {<h4>Purpose</h4>A burgeoning literature documents robust links of income inequality with the prevalence of psychological disorders. The aim of this paper is to extend this literature by examining the effects of cross-national income inequality on prevalence of psychotic symptoms.<h4>Method</h4>Analyses used archival data of representative samples from 50 countries (N = 249,217). Four types of psychotic symptoms were assessed using the well-validated CIDI interview. We examined the effects of Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID) measures of the concentration of income in the top percentile of people and the Gini coefficient of income inequality.<h4>Results</h4>Income inequality was significantly correlated with the national prevalence of hallucinations, delusions of thought control, and delusional mood, and effects withstood control over national indices of per capita income and regime type. Findings were also robust to nonparametric bootstrapping.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Although the cross-sectional design limits ability to claim causality, income inequality appears important for understanding psychotic symptoms.}, Doi = {10.1007/s00127-015-1112-4}, Key = {fds318648} } @article{fds331647, Author = {Pierskalla, J and Schultz, A and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Order, distance, and local development over the long-run}, Journal = {Quarterly Journal of Political Science}, Volume = {12}, Number = {4}, Pages = {375-404}, Publisher = {Now Publishers}, Year = {2017}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00016020}, Abstract = {We argue that local, long-term exposure to a centralized political authority determines sub-national patterns of contemporary economic development. Older research on economic development has focused on cross-national income accounts, often ignoring the large sub-national variation in income differences. Likewise, research on the effects of political institutions on development has mostly neglected sub-national variation in the institutional environment. Yet a growing body of work shows that the geographic reach of states within countries and their ability to foster economic exchange have varied dramatically through history. We contribute to recent research on sub-national development by creating a new measure of local historical exposure to state institutions that codes geographic distance to historical capital cities and use highly spatially disaggregated data on economic development, based on satellite data, to test their relationship. We find clear evidence, using fixedeffects estimations for both European and global data, that local historical proximity to capital cities is associated with higher levelsthrough a number of robustness checks covering alternative measures, specifications, and sensitivity analyses.}, Doi = {10.1561/100.00016020}, Key = {fds331647} } @article{fds324428, Author = {Brinkerhoff, DW and Wetterberg, A and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Distance, services, and citizen perceptions of the state in rural Africa}, Journal = {Governance}, Volume = {31}, Number = {1}, Pages = {103-124}, Publisher = {WILEY}, Year = {2018}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gove.12271}, Abstract = {In most poor countries, basic services in rural areas are less accessible and of lower quality than those in urban settings. In this article, we investigate the subnational geography of service delivery and its relationship with citizens' perceptions of their government by analyzing the relationship between service access, satisfaction with services and government, and the distance to urban centers for more than 21,000 survey respondents across 17 African countries. We confirm that access to services and service satisfaction suffer from a spatial gradient. However, distant citizens are less likely than their urban peers to translate service dissatisfaction into discontent with their government; distant citizens have more trust in government and more positive evaluations of both local and national officials. Our findings suggest that increasing responsiveness and accountability to citizens as a means of improving remote rural services may face more limits than promoters of democratic governance and citizen-centered accountability presume.}, Doi = {10.1111/gove.12271}, Key = {fds324428} } @misc{fds343512, Author = {Gadiraju, KK and Vatsavai, RR and Kaza, N and Wibbels, E and Krishna, A}, Title = {Machine learning approaches for slum detection using very high resolution satellite images}, Journal = {Ieee International Conference on Data Mining Workshops, Icdmw}, Volume = {2018-November}, Pages = {1397-1404}, Year = {2019}, Month = {February}, ISBN = {9781538692882}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ICDMW.2018.00198}, Abstract = {Detecting informal settlements has become an important area of research in the past decade, owing to the availability of high resolution satellite imagery. Traditional per-pixel based classification methods provide high degree of accuracy in distinguishing primitive instances such as buildings, roads, forests and water. However, these methods fail to capture the complex relationships between neighboring pixels that is necessary for distinguishing complex objects such as informal and formal settlements. In this paper, we perform several experiments to compare and contrast how various per-pixel based classification methods, when combined with various features perform in detecting slums. In addition, we also explored a deep neural network, which showed better accuracy than the pixel based methods.}, Doi = {10.1109/ICDMW.2018.00198}, Key = {fds343512} } @misc{fds354275, Author = {Wibbels, E}, Title = {The social underpinnings of decentralized governance: Networks, technology, and the future of social accountability}, Pages = {14-39}, Booktitle = {Decentralized Governance and Accountability: Academic Research and the Future of Donor Programming}, Year = {2019}, Month = {February}, ISBN = {9781108497909}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108615594.002}, Doi = {10.1017/9781108615594.002}, Key = {fds354275} } @book{fds354276, Author = {Rodden, JA and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Decentralized governance and accountability: Academic research and the future of donor programming}, Pages = {1-300}, Year = {2019}, Month = {February}, ISBN = {9781108497909}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108615594}, Abstract = {At the end of the twentieth century, academics and policymakers welcomed a trend toward fiscal and political decentralization as part of a potential solution for slow economic growth and poor performance by insulated, unaccountable governments. For the last two decades, researchers have been trying to answer a series of vexing questions about the political economy of multi-layered governance. Much of the best recent research on decentralization has come from close collaborations between university researchers and international aid institutions. As the volume and quality of this collaborative research have increased in recent decades, the time has come to review the lessons from this literature and apply them to debates about future programming. In this volume, the contributors place this research in the broader history of engagement between aid institutions and academics, particularly in the area of decentralized governance, and outline the challenges and opportunities to link evidence and policy action.}, Doi = {10.1017/9781108615594}, Key = {fds354276} } @misc{fds354274, Author = {Rodden, JA and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Introduction}, Pages = {1-13}, Booktitle = {Decentralized Governance and Accountability: Academic Research and the Future of Donor Programming}, Year = {2019}, Month = {February}, ISBN = {9781108497909}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108615594.001}, Doi = {10.1017/9781108615594.001}, Key = {fds354274} } @article{fds341123, Author = {Rains, E and Krishna, A and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Combining satellite and survey data to study Indian slums: evidence on the range of conditions and implications for urban policy}, Journal = {Environment and Urbanization}, Volume = {31}, Number = {1}, Pages = {267-292}, Year = {2019}, Month = {April}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0956247818798744}, Abstract = {Projections suggest that most of the global growth in population in the next few decades will be in urban centres in Asia and Africa. Most of these additional urban residents will be concentrated in slums. However, government documentation of slums is incomplete and unreliable, and many slums remain undocumented. It is necessary to employ creative methods to locate and sample these understudied populations. We used satellite image analysis and fieldwork to build a sample of Indian slums. We show that living conditions vary along a wide-ranging continuum of wellbeing; different points correspond to different policy needs. We also show that most variation in conditions is due to differences across rather than within neighbourhoods. These findings have important implications for urban policy. First, satellite data can be a useful tool to locate undocumented settlements. Second, policy must be appropriately nuanced to respond to wide-ranging needs. Finally, variation patterns suggest that policies should be targeted at the neighbourhood rather than the individual level.}, Doi = {10.1177/0956247818798744}, Key = {fds341123} } @article{fds352500, Author = {Tellez, JF and Wibbels, E and Krishna, A}, Title = {Local Order, Policing, and Bribes}, Journal = {World Politics}, Volume = {72}, Number = {3}, Pages = {377-410}, Year = {2020}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887120000064}, Abstract = {Day-to-day policing represents a fundamental interface between citizens and states. Yet even in the most capable states, local policing varies enormously from one community to the next. The authors seek to understand this variation and in doing so make three contributions: First, they conceptualize communities and individuals as networks more or less capable of demanding high-quality policing. Second, they present original survey data and semistructured interviews on local policing from over one hundred sixty slums, eight thousand households, and one hundred seventy informal neighborhood leaders in India that contribute to the nascent empirical work on comparative policing and order. Third, they find evidence that well-connected individuals and densely connected neighborhoods express greater confidence in and satisfaction with local policing. Critically, these differences do not appear to be a function of a lower propensity for local conflict but rather of an increased capacity to leverage neighborhood leaders to mediate relations with the police. The combination of analytics and empirics in this article provides insight into the conditions under which individuals and communities experience the police as expropriators of rents or neutral providers of order.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0043887120000064}, Key = {fds352500} } @article{fds348907, Author = {Mosley, L and Paniagua, V and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes}, Journal = {Economics & Politics}, Volume = {32}, Number = {2}, Pages = {197-249}, Year = {2020}, Month = {July}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12150}, Abstract = {Do sovereign bond markets react systematically to microeconomic policy reforms? Some observers suggest that investors are very attentive to supply-side policies such as those related to labor markets, corporate taxation, and product standards. They argue that, along with macroeconomic outcomes and broad financial market conditions, such reforms affect sovereign bond premiums, for developed as well as emerging economies. In contrast, we predict few systematic effects of supply-side policy reforms on sovereign bond market outcomes. Our theory draws on a standard three-equation model of the economy, widely accepted among economic and finance professionals. That model makes few clear predictions regarding the anticipated effects of microeconomic policy changes; as a result, we expect that such reforms will not generate systematic market reactions. Our analyses, based on daily data from 37 countries from 2004 to 2012, indeed reveal little evidence of a systematic bond market reaction to the 47 most significant reforms to corporate taxation and labor market regulation. These results call into question the notion that “bond market vigilantes” play a central role in compelling governments to enact specific microeconomic policy changes.}, Doi = {10.1111/ecpo.12150}, Key = {fds348907} } @article{fds352567, Author = {Krishna, A and Rains, E and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Negotiating Informality– Ambiguity, Intermediation, and a Patchwork of Outcomes in Slums of Bengaluru}, Journal = {The Journal of Development Studies}, Volume = {56}, Number = {11}, Pages = {1983-1999}, Publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, Year = {2020}, Month = {November}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2020.1725483}, Abstract = {In developing countries, procedural ambiguity due to bureaucratic overlap and political discretion gives rise to divergence between law and practice. In this context of pervasive informality, it is important to consider how local negotiations produce disparate outcomes. We examine these local negotiations to explain how informal property rights are acquired and how markets operate in the slums of Bengaluru, India. Drawing on original interview and survey data, we describe how at least 18 types of property documents issued to urban slum residents can be ordered along a tenure continuum. Intermediaries are required to negotiate the opportunities that lie hidden within ambiguity. A first set of political intermediaries helps slum residents acquire property rights incrementally along this continuum. A second set of intermediaries helps facilitate informal housing transactions, keeping markets liquid across the tenure continuum. The mechanics of acquiring and transacting informal properties can differ across cities and countries, but, across contexts, intermediation helps negotiate informality.}, Doi = {10.1080/00220388.2020.1725483}, Key = {fds352567} } @article{fds355482, Author = {Bland, G and Brinkerhoff, D and Romero, D and Wetterberg, A and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Public Services, Geography, and Citizen Perceptions of Government in Latin America}, Journal = {Political Behavior}, Year = {2021}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11109-021-09691-0}, Abstract = {One of the linchpins of democratic accountability runs through service quality. Because citizens are sensitive to the quality of basic services, they can translate (dis)satisfaction into assessments of incumbent politicians. Yet, although previous research has shown that both access to, and the quality of, basic services decline in rural settings, this seems not to translate into increased dissatisfaction with incumbents. In this paper we seek to understand why. We theorize four potential mechanisms that might underpin the weaker accountability for poor service outcomes in more remote settings. To test these mechanisms, we use data from 34,514 geocoded survey respondents across 19 countries in Latin America. We show that the likelihood of translating dissatisfaction with services into discontent with elected officials decreases as distance to urban centers increases. We find some evidence that a low sense of political efficacy and deference to hierarchy mediate the relationship between remoteness, service quality and accountability. Nevertheless, some of the direct relationship between distance and attitudes towards elected officials persists in the face of our mediation analysis, suggesting that more work needs to be done on the relationship between remoteness, service quality and accountability.}, Doi = {10.1007/s11109-021-09691-0}, Key = {fds355482} } @article{fds362979, Author = {Rains, E and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Informal Work, Risk, and Clientelism: Evidence from 223 Slums across India}, Journal = {British Journal of Political Science}, Year = {2022}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000011}, Abstract = {Most of the poor in the developing world work in the informal economy, that is, in occupations that take place outside of the legal system of taxing, spending, and regulating. This article examines how informal work impacts the policy and electoral preferences of the poor. We emphasize the importance of the risks inherent in informal employment in shaping the responsiveness of citizens to clientelism and their policy and voting preferences. Since most informal workers are not covered by (formal) social insurance, they prefer material goods and candidates that produce targeted, clientelistic benefits rather than programmatically delivered insurance that is unlikely to reach them. As a result, we argue that informal workers are more likely to rely on clientelistic relations as a means of hedging risks than are formal workers; prefer policies that are delivered clientelistically via political mediators rather than programmatic solutions; and prefer clientelistic over programmatic local candidates. Our findings elucidate why the preferences of poor informal workers often diverge from those assumed by standard models of social insurance and have important implications for the political economy of social policy in a world where billions work outside work-based tax-transfer systems.}, Doi = {10.1017/S0007123422000011}, Key = {fds362979} } @article{fds361809, Author = {Timoneda, JC and Wibbels, E}, Title = {Spikes and Variance: Using Google Trends to Detect and Forecast Protests}, Journal = {Political Analysis}, Volume = {30}, Number = {1}, Pages = {1-18}, Year = {2022}, Month = {January}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.7}, Abstract = {Google search is ubiquitous, and Google Trends (GT) is a potentially useful access point for big data on many topics the world over. We propose a new 'variance-in-time' method for forecasting events using GT. By collecting multiple and overlapping samples of GT data over time, our algorithm leverages variation both in the mean and the variance of a search term in order to accommodate some idiosyncracies in the GT platform. To elucidate our approach, we use it to forecast protests in the United States. We use data from the Crowd Counting Consortium between 2017 and 2019 to build a sample of true protest events as well as a synthetic control group where no protests occurred. The model's out-of-sample forecasts predict protests with higher accuracy than extant work using structural predictors, high frequency event data, or other sources of big data such as Twitter. Our results provide new insights into work specifically on political protests, while providing a general approach to GT that should be useful to researchers of many important, if rare, phenomena.}, Doi = {10.1017/pan.2021.7}, Key = {fds361809} } | |
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