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Publications [#238849] of Frank A. Sloan

Journal Articles

  1. Sloan, FA; Khwaja, A; Chung, S, Individual Expectations and Behaviors: Evidence of the Relationships between Mortality Expectations and Smoking Decisions, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 35 no. 2 (October, 2007), pp. 179-201, ISSN 0895-5646 [doi]
    (last updated on 2020/01/21)

    Abstract:
    Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments. In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past or anticipated decisions on these beliefs. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.


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