Papers Published

1. Stern, R; Eva, B, Causal Direction in Causal Bayes Nets, Philosophy of Science (January, 2025) [doi].
   (last updated on 2026/01/19)

   Abstract:
   Some authors maintain that we can use causal Bayes nets to infer whether X →Y or X ←Y by consulting a probability distribution defined over some exogenous source of variation for X or Y. We raise a problem for this approach. Specifically, we point out that there are cases where an exogenous cause of X (Ex) has no probabilistic influence on Y no matter the direction of causation—namely, cases where Ex → X →Y and Ex → X ←Y are probabilistically indistinguishable. We then assess the philosophical significance of this problem and discuss some potential solutions.