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Publications of Robert L. Winkler    :chronological  alphabetical  combined  bibtex listing:

Books

  1. Winkler, RL; Makridakis, S; Andersen, A; Carbone, R; Fildes, R; Hibon, M; Lewandowski, R; Newton, J; Parzen, E, The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Method (February, 2015), Wiley
  2. Winkler, RL, An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision (January, 2003), pp. 452 pages, Probabilistic Pub, ISBN 9780964793842  [abs]
  3. Winkler, RL; Maridakis, RL; Deplas, M, PSI: Programmes de Statistique Interactif (1988), Les Editions d'Organisation
  4. Winkler, RL; Maridakis, S, ISP: Interactive Statistical Programs (1986), West
  5. Winkler, RL, Statistical Methods, edited by Harnett, DL (1975)
  6. Hays, WL; Winkler, RL, Statistics: probability, inference, and decision (1970), pp. 650 pages, Holt, Rinehart and Winston

Papers Published

  1. Müller, A; Scarsini, M; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance: Transfer Characterizations and Sufficient Conditions Under Dependence Uncertainty, Operations Research, vol. 73 no. 2 (March, 2025), pp. 879-893 [doi]  [abs]
  2. Babic, B; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, RESOLUTE AND CORRELATED BAYESIANS, Philosophers Imprint, vol. 25 (January, 2025) [doi]  [abs]
  3. Babic, B; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Normativity, Epistemic Rationality, and Noisy Statistical Evidence, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, vol. 75 no. 1 (March, 2024), pp. 153-176 [doi]  [abs]
  4. Makridakis, S; Spiliotis, E; Assimakopoulos, V; Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38 no. 4 (October, 2022), pp. 1365-1385 [doi]  [abs]
  5. Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Evaluating quantile forecasts in the M5 uncertainty competition, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38 no. 4 (October, 2022), pp. 1531-1545 [doi]  [abs]
  6. Lichtendahl, KC; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Jose, VR; Winkler, RL, Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts, Operations Research, vol. 70 no. 5 (September, 2022), pp. 2998-3014 [doi]  [abs]
  7. Müller, A; Scarsini, M; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Technical Note—Ranking Distributions When Only Means and Variances Are Known, Operations Research, vol. 70 no. 5 (September, 2022), pp. 2851-2859 [doi]  [abs]
  8. Petropoulos, F; Apiletti, D; Assimakopoulos, V; Babai, MZ; Barrow, DK; Ben Taieb, S; Bergmeir, C; Bessa, RJ; Bijak, J; Boylan, JE; Browell, J; Carnevale, C; Castle, JL; Cirillo, P; Clements, MP; Cordeiro, C; Cyrino Oliveira, FL; De Baets, S; Dokumentov, A; Ellison, J; Fiszeder, P; Franses, PH; Frazier, DT; Gilliland, M; Gönül, MS; Goodwin, P; Grossi, L; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Guidolin, M; Gunter, U; Guo, X; Guseo, R; Harvey, N; Hendry, DF; Hollyman, R; Januschowski, T; Jeon, J; Jose, VRR; Kang, Y; Koehler, AB; Kolassa, S; Kourentzes, N; Leva, S; Li, F; Litsiou, K; Makridakis, S; Martin, GM; Martinez, AB; Meeran, S; Modis, T; Nikolopoulos, K; Önkal, D; Paccagnini, A; Panagiotelis, A; Panapakidis, I; Pavía, JM; Pedio, M; Pedregal, DJ; Pinson, P; Ramos, P; Rapach, DE; Reade, JJ; Rostami-Tabar, B; Rubaszek, M; Sermpinis, G; Shang, HL; Spiliotis, E; Syntetos, AA; Talagala, PD; Talagala, TS; Tashman, L; Thomakos, D; Thorarinsdottir, T; Todini, E; Trapero Arenas, JR; Wang, X; Winkler, RL; Yusupova, A; Ziel, F, Forecasting: theory and practice, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38 no. 3 (July, 2022), pp. 705-871 [doi]  [abs]
  9. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results. (January, 2020)  [abs]
  10. Lichtendahl, KC; Winkler, RL, Why do some combinations perform better than others?, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 36 no. 1 (January, 2020), pp. 142-149 [doi]  [abs]
  11. Winkler, RL; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Lichtendahl, KC; Jose, VRR, Probability forecasts and their combination: A research perspective, Decision Analysis, vol. 16 no. 4 (January, 2019), pp. 239-260 [doi]  [abs]
  12. Yao, Y; Vehtari, A; Simpson, D; Gelman, A, Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (with Discussion), Bayesian Analysis, vol. 13 no. 3 (September, 2018), pp. 917-1007, Institute of Mathematical Statistics [doi]
  13. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 85 no. 2 (June, 2018), pp. 431-445, WILEY [doi]  [abs]
  14. McCardle, KF; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, When to abandon a research project and search for a new one, Operations Research, vol. 66 no. 3 (May, 2018), pp. 799-813, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  15. Müller, A; Scarsini, M; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Between first- and second-order stochastic dominance, Management Science, vol. 63 no. 9 (September, 2017), pp. 2933-2947, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  16. Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Lichtendahl, KC; Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL, Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs, Operations Research, vol. 65 no. 3 (May, 2017), pp. 712-728, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  17. Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Combining interval forecasts, Decision Analysis, vol. 14 no. 1 (March, 2017), pp. 1-20, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  18. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results. (January, 2017)  [abs]
  19. Winkler, RL, The importance of communicating uncertainties in forecasts: overestimating the risks from winter storm Juno., Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, vol. 35 no. 3 (March, 2015), pp. 349-353, ISSN 0272-4332 [doi]
  20. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL; Huang, RJ; Tzeng, LY, Generalized almost stochastic dominance, Operations Research, vol. 63 no. 2 (March, 2015), pp. 363-377, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [doi]  [abs]
  21. Winkler, RL, Equal versus differential weighting in combining forecasts., Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, vol. 35 no. 1 (January, 2015), pp. 16-18, ISSN 0272-4332 [doi]
  22. Lichtendahl, KC; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Winkler, RL, Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?, Management Science, vol. 59 no. 7 (January, 2013), pp. 1594-1611, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  23. Johnstone, DJ, Log-Optimal Economic Evaluation of Probability Forecasts, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 175 no. 3 (July, 2012), pp. 661-689, Oxford University Press (OUP), ISSN 0964-1998 [doi]  [abs]
  24. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Multiattribute one-switch utility, Management Science, vol. 58 no. 3 (March, 2012), pp. 602-605, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  25. Belloni, A; Winkler, RL, On multivariate quantiles under partial orders, The Annals of Statistics, vol. 39 no. 2 (April, 2011), pp. 1125-1179, Institute of Mathematical Statistics [0912.5489v3], [doi]  [abs]
  26. Johnstone, DJ; Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL, Tailored scoring rules for probabilities, Decision Analysis, vol. 8 no. 4 (January, 2011), pp. 256-268, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 1545-8490 [doi]  [abs]
  27. Winkler, RL; Jose, VRR, Scoring Rules, in Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (January, 2010), pp. 1-11 [doi]  [abs]
  28. Nau, RF; Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL, Duality between maximization of expected utility and minimization of relative entropy when probabilities are imprecise, Isipta 2009 Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability Theories and Applications (December, 2009), pp. 337-346 [Gateway.cgi]  [abs]
  29. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Multiattribute utility satisfying a preference for combining good with bad, Management Science, vol. 55 no. 12 (December, 2009), pp. 1942-1952, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  30. Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL, Evaluating quantile assessments, Operations Research, vol. 57 no. 5 (September, 2009), pp. 1287-1297, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [doi]  [abs]
  31. Jose, VRR; Nau, RF; Winkler, RL, Sensitivity to distance and baseline distributions in forecast evaluation, Management Science, vol. 55 no. 4 (April, 2009), pp. 582-590, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  32. Jose, VRR; Nau, RF; Winkler, RL, Scoring rules, generalized entropy, and utility maximization, Operations Research, vol. 56 no. 5 (September, 2008), pp. 1146-1157, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [doi]  [abs]
  33. Winkler, RL; Jose, VRR, Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds, Test, vol. 17 no. 2 (August, 2008), pp. 251-255, Springer Nature, ISSN 1133-0686 [doi]
  34. Jose, VRR; Winkler, RL, Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 24 no. 1 (January, 2008), pp. 163-169, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0169-2070 [doi]  [abs]
  35. Nau, R; Jose, VR; Winkler, R, Scoring rules, entropy, and imprecise probabilities, Isipta 2007 Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability Theories and Applications (December, 2007), pp. 307-315  [abs]
  36. Lichtendahl, KC; Winkler, RL, Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters, Management Science, vol. 53 no. 11 (November, 2007), pp. 1745-1755, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  37. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: The impact of changes in performance and target distributions, Operations Research, vol. 55 no. 2 (March, 2007), pp. 226-233, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [doi]  [abs]
  38. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, Aggregating probability distributions, in Advances in Decision Analysis from Foundations to Applications (January, 2007), pp. 154-176, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9780521863681 [doi]  [abs]
  39. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility, Decision Analysis, vol. 3 no. 2 (June, 2006), pp. 94-99, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 1545-8490 [doi]  [abs]
  40. Smith, JE; Winkler, RL, The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis, Management Science, vol. 52 no. 3 (March, 2006), pp. 311-322, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  41. Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Risky choices and correlated background risk, Management Science, vol. 51 no. 9 (September, 2005), pp. 1336-1345, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  42. Winkler, RL; Smith, JE, On uncertainty in medical testing., Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, vol. 24 no. 6 (November, 2004), pp. 654-658, ISSN 0272-989X [15534345], [doi]  [abs]
  43. Tsetlin, I; Gaba, A; Winkler, RL, Strategic choice of variability in multiround contests and contests with handicaps, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 29 no. 2 (September, 2004), pp. 143-158, Springer Nature, ISSN 0895-5646 [doi]  [abs]
  44. Winkler, RL; Clemen, RT, Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments, Decision Analysis, vol. 1 no. 3 (September, 2004), pp. 167-176, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 1545-8490 [doi]  [abs]
  45. Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests, Operations Research, vol. 52 no. 3 (May, 2004), pp. 384-496, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [doi]  [abs]
  46. Browne, RH; Winkler, RL, Winkler, R. L., Smith, J. E., and Fryback, D. G. (2002), "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid," the american statistician, 56, 1-4: Comments by browne [1] (multiple letters), American Statistician, vol. 56 no. 3 (August, 2002), pp. 252-253, Informa UK Limited [doi]
  47. Winkler, RL; Smith, JE; Fryback, DG, The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid, American Statistician, vol. 56 no. 1 (January, 2002), pp. 1-4, Informa UK Limited [doi]  [abs]
  48. Winkler, RL, Why Bayesian analysis hasn't caught on in healthcare decision making., International journal of technology assessment in health care, vol. 17 no. 1 (January, 2001), pp. 56-66, ISSN 0266-4623 [11329845], [doi]  [abs]
  49. Smith, JE; Winkler, RL; Fryback, DG, The first positive: computing positive predictive value at the extremes., Annals of internal medicine, vol. 132 no. 10 (May, 2000), pp. 804-809, ISSN 0003-4819 [10819704], [doi]  [abs]
  50. Clemen, RT; Fischer, GW; Winkler, RL, Assessing dependence: some experimental results, Management Science, vol. 46 no. 8 (January, 2000), pp. 1100-1115, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  51. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis, Risk Analysis, vol. 19 no. 2 (April, 1999), pp. 187-203, WILEY [doi]  [abs]
  52. Winkler, RL, Evaluation of probabilities: A level playing field?, edited by Shanteau, J; Mellers, BA; Schum, DA, DECISION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: REFLECTIONS ON THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF WARD EDWARDS (January, 1999), pp. 155-170, KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS, ISBN 0-7923-8399-0 [Gateway.cgi]
  53. Smith, JE; Winkler, RL, Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test, Interfaces, vol. 29 no. 3 (January, 1999), pp. 63-76, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  54. Boiney, LG; Winkler, RL; Sarin, RK; Matchar, DB, Combining Patient Utility with Health Status Assessment to Improve Medical Decision Making, Journal of Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis, vol. 5 no. 4 (December, 1996), pp. 248-258, Wiley, ISSN 1057-9214 [doi]  [abs]
  55. Winkler, RL, Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol. 54 no. 2-3 (November, 1996), pp. 127-132, Elsevier BV [doi]  [abs]
  56. Abramson, B; Brown, J; Edwards, W; Murphy, A; Winkler, RL, Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 12 no. 1 (January, 1996), pp. 57-71, Elsevier BV [doi]  [abs]
  57. Winkler, RL; Muñoz, J; Cervera, JL; Bernardo, JM; Blattenberger, G; Kadane, JB; Lindley, DV; Murphy, AH; Oliver, RM; Ríos-Insua, D, Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities, Test, vol. 5 no. 1 (January, 1996), pp. 1-60, Springer Nature, ISSN 1133-0686 [doi]  [abs]
  58. Boiney, LG; Winkler, RL; Sarin, RK; Matchar, DB, Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making, Journal of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, vol. 5 no. 4 (January, 1996), pp. 248-258, WILEY [doi]  [abs]
  59. Dawid, AP; DeGroot, MH; Mortera, J; Cooke, R; French, S; Genest, C; Schervish, MJ; Lindley, DV; McConway, KJ; Winkler, RL, Coherent combination of experts' opinions, Test, vol. 4 no. 2 (December, 1995), pp. 263-313, Springer Nature, ISSN 1133-0686 [doi]  [abs]
  60. Gaba, A; Winkler, RL, The impact of testing errors on value of information: A quality-control example, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 10 no. 1 (January, 1995), pp. 5-13, Springer Nature, ISSN 0895-5646 [doi]  [abs]
  61. Winkler, RL; Wallsten, TS; Whitfield, RG; Richmond, HM; Hayes, SR; Rosenbaum, AS, Assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure, Operations Research, vol. 43 no. 1 (January, 1995), pp. 19-28, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  62. Clemen, RT; Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 11 no. 1 (January, 1995), pp. 133-145, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0169-2070 [doi]  [abs]
  63. Winkler, RL, Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules, Management Science, vol. 40 no. 11 (November, 1994), pp. 1395-1405, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  64. WINKLER, RL, VALUED-FOCUSED THINKING, SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW, vol. 36 no. 1 (September, 1994), pp. 5-5, MASS INST TECHNOL, ISSN 0019-848X [Gateway.cgi]
  65. Kadane, JB; Girón, J; Peña, D; Fishburn, P; French, S; Lindley, DV; Parmigiani, G; Winkler, RL, Several Bayesians: A review, Test, vol. 2 no. 1-2 (December, 1993), pp. 1-32, Springer Nature, ISSN 1133-0686 [doi]  [abs]
  66. Winkler, RL; Poses, RM, Evaluating and combining physicians' probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit, Management Science, vol. 39 no. 12 (January, 1993), pp. 1526-1543, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  67. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, Aggregating point estimates. A flexible modeling approach, Management Science, vol. 39 no. 4 (January, 1993), pp. 501-516, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  68. Winkler, RL, Several Bayesians: Multiple-Person Problems, TEST, vol. 2 no. 1-2 (1993), pp. 25-29, Springer Verlag (Germany), ISSN 1863-8260
  69. Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL, Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 5 no. 4 (October, 1992), pp. 389-407, Springer Nature, ISSN 0895-5646 [doi]  [abs]
  70. Gaba, A; Winkler, RL, Implications of Errors in Survey Data: A Bayesian Model, Management Science, vol. 38 no. 7 (July, 1992), pp. 913-925, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  71. Winkler, RL; Clemen, RT, Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts, Operations Research, vol. 40 no. 3 (June, 1992), pp. 609-614, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  72. McCardle, KF; Winkler, RL, Repeated Gambles, Learning, and Risk Aversion, Management Science, vol. 38 no. 6 (June, 1992), pp. 807-818, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  73. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 8 no. 1 (January, 1992), pp. 104-107, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0169-2070 [doi]
  74. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 7 no. 4 (January, 1992), pp. 435-455, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0169-2070 [doi]  [abs]
  75. Miller, CM; Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 7 no. 4 (January, 1992), pp. 515-529, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0169-2070 [doi]  [abs]
  76. Winkler, RL, Ambiguity, probability, preference, and decision analysis, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 4 no. 3 (July, 1991), pp. 285-297, Springer Nature, ISSN 0895-5646 [doi]  [abs]
  77. WEST, M; WINKLER, RL, DATA-BASE ERROR TRAPPING AND PREDICTION, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, vol. 86 no. 416 (1991), pp. 987-996, Informa UK Limited, ISSN 0162-1459 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  78. Poses, RM; Bekes, C; Winkler, RL; Scott, WE; Copare, FJ, Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients., Archives of internal medicine, vol. 150 no. 9 (September, 1990), pp. 1874-1878, ISSN 0003-9926 [doi]  [abs]
  79. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters, Management Science, vol. 36 no. 7 (July, 1990), pp. 767-779, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  80. Winkler, RL, Decision Modeling and Rational Choice: AHP and Utility Theory, Management Science, vol. 36 no. 3 (March, 1990), pp. 247-248, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
  81. Winkler, RL, Comment: Representing and communicating uncertainty, Statistical Science, vol. 5 no. 1 (January, 1990), pp. 26-30, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS), ISSN 2168-8745 [doi]
  82. Edwards, W; Schum, DA; Winkler, RL, Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A Trialogue, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. 3 no. 2 (January, 1990), pp. 75-89, WILEY, ISSN 0894-3257 [doi]  [abs]
  83. Haves, SR; Rosenbaum, AS; Wallsten, TS; Whitfield, RG; Winkler, RL; Richmond, H, A health risk assessment for use in setting the U.S. primary ozone standard, Studies in Environmental Science, vol. 35 no. C (December, 1989), pp. 851-867, Elsevier, ISSN 0166-1116 [doi]  [abs]
  84. Winkler, RL, Uncertainty about processes that shift over time: Modeling and analysis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 7 no. 4 (January, 1989), pp. 419-422, Informa UK Limited, ISSN 0735-0015 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
  85. MAKRIDAKIS, S; WINKLER, RL, SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF POST-SAMPLE FORECASTING ERRORS, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, vol. 38 no. 2 (January, 1989), pp. 331-342, WILEY, ISSN 0035-9254 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
  86. Winkler, RL, Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 5 no. 4 (January, 1989), pp. 605-609, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0169-2070 [doi]  [abs]
  87. McCardle, KF; Winkler, RL, All Roads Lead to Risk Preference: A Turnpike Theorem for Conditionally Independent Returns, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 24 no. 1 (January, 1989), pp. 13-28, JSTOR, ISSN 0022-1090 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  88. Kadane, JB; Winkler, RL, Separating probability elicitation from utilities, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 83 no. 402 (January, 1988), pp. 357-363, Informa UK Limited, ISSN 0162-1459 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  89. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, A general framework for forecast verification, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 115 no. 7 (January, 1987), pp. 1330-1338, American Meteorological Society [doi]  [abs]
  90. Winkler, RL, Expert Resolution, Management Science, vol. 32 no. 3 (March, 1986), pp. 298-303, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  91. Winkler, RL, Comment, Statistical Science, vol. 1 no. 1 (January, 1986), pp. 138-140, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, ISSN 0883-4237 [doi]
  92. Conroy, RM; Winkler, RL, Market structure. The specialist as dealer and broker, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 10 no. 1 (January, 1986), pp. 21-36, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0378-4266 [doi]  [abs]
  93. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, Combining Economic Forecasts, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 4 no. 1 (January, 1986), pp. 39-39, JSTOR, ISSN 0735-0015 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  94. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, Combining economic forecasts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 4 no. 1 (January, 1986), pp. 39-46 [doi]  [abs]
  95. Murphy, AH; Katz, RW; Winkler, RL; Hsu, W-R, Repetitive Decision Making and the Value of Forecasts in the Cost‐Loss Ratio Situation: A Dynamic Model, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 113 no. 5 (May, 1985), pp. 801-813, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0027-0644 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
  96. Winkler, RL, Comment: Bayesian model building and forecasting, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 80 no. 389 (January, 1985), pp. 95, JSTOR, ISSN 0162-1459 [doi]
  97. Murphy, AH; Wu-Ron Hsu; Winkler, RL; Wilks, DS, The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: some experimental results., Monthly Weather Review, vol. 113 no. 12 (January, 1985), pp. 2075-2089, American Meteorological Society [doi]  [abs]
  98. Cohen, MD; Huber, G; Keeney, RL; Levis, AH; Lopes, LL; Sage, AP; Sen, S; Whinston, AB; Winkler, RL; Von Winterfeldt, D; Zadeh, L, Research Needs and the Phenomena of Decisionmaking and Operations, IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics, vol. SMC-15 no. 6 (January, 1985), pp. 764-775, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) [doi]  [abs]
  99. Keeney, RL; Winkler, RL, EVALUATING DECISION STRATEGIES FOR EQUITY OF PUBLIC RISKS., Operations Research, vol. 33 no. 5 (January, 1985), pp. 955-970, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  100. Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL, LIMITS FOR THE PRECISION AND VALUE OF INFORMATION FROM DEPENDENT SOURCES., Operations Research, vol. 33 no. 2 (January, 1985), pp. 427-442, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  101. Keeney, RL; Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL, Analysis of alternative national ambient carbon monoxide standards, Management Science, vol. 30 no. 4 (January, 1984), pp. 518-528, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  102. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Probability forecasting in meteorology, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 79 no. 387 (January, 1984), pp. 489-500, JSTOR, ISSN 0162-1459 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]  [abs]
  103. Keeney, RL; Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL, RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL AMBIENT CARBON MONOXIDE STANDARDS., Proceedings Annual Meeting Air Pollution Control Association, vol. 1 (December, 1983)
  104. Goss, DA; Winkler, RL, Progression of myopia in youth: age of cessation., American journal of optometry and physiological optics, vol. 60 no. 8 (August, 1983), pp. 651-658, ISSN 1040-5488 [doi]  [abs]
  105. Goss, DA; Winkler, RL, Progression of myopia in youth: Age of cessation, Optometry and Vision Science, vol. 60 no. 8 (January, 1983), pp. 651-658  [abs]
  106. Makridakis, S; Winkler, RL, AVERAGES OF FORECASTS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS., Management Science, vol. 29 no. 7 (January, 1983), pp. 987-996, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  107. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH; Katz, RW, The value of climate information: A decision‐analytic approach, Journal of Climatology, vol. 3 no. 2 (January, 1983), pp. 187-197, WILEY [doi]  [abs]
  108. Winkler, RL, The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvement of the Overall Forecasting Process, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 2 (1983), pp. 293-294, Wiley: 24 months, ISSN 1099-131X
  109. Winkler, RL; Makridakis, S, The Combination of Forecasts, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), vol. 146 no. 2 (1983), pp. 150-157, ISSN 0035-9238
  110. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Subjective Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Some Experimental Results, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 110 no. 9 (September, 1982), pp. 1288-1297, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0027-0644 [doi]
  111. Katz, RW; Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: a dynamic decision-making approach., Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 21 no. 4 (January, 1982), pp. 518-531, American Meteorological Society [doi]  [abs]
  112. Harpaz, G; Lee, W; Winkler, RL, LEARNING, EXPERIMENTATION, AND THE OPTIMAL OUTPUT DECISIONS OF A COMPETITIVE FIRM., Management Science, vol. 28 no. 6 (January, 1982), pp. 589-603, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  113. Winkler, RL, State of the Art: RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY, Decision Sciences, vol. 13 no. 4 (January, 1982), pp. 517-533, WILEY, ISSN 0011-7315 [doi]  [abs]
  114. Winkler, RL; Makridakis, S; Andersen, A; Carbone, R; Fildes, R; Hibon, M; Lewandowski, R; Newton, J; Parzen, E, The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 1 no. 2 (1982), pp. 111-153, Wiley: 24 months, ISSN 1099-131X [doi]  [abs]
  115. Winkler, RL, Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources, Management Science, vol. 27 no. 4 (April, 1981), pp. 479-488, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  116. Winkler, RL; Sarin, RK, Risk assessment: consulting the experts., Environmental Professional, vol. 3 no. 3-4 (January, 1981), pp. 265-276  [abs]
  117. Conroy, RM; Winkler, RL, Informational Differences Between Limit and Market Orders for a Market Maker, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 16 no. 5 (January, 1981), pp. 703-724, JSTOR, ISSN 0022-1090 [Gateway.cgi], [doi]
  118. Eliashberg, J; Winkler, RL, RISK SHARING AND GROUP DECISION MAKING., Management Science, vol. 27 no. 11 (January, 1981), pp. 1221-1235, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  119. Murphy, AH; Lichtenstein, S; Fischhoff, B; Winkler, RL, Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon)., vol. 61 no. 7 (December, 1980)  [abs]
  120. Sarin, RK; Winkler, RL, Performance-Based Incentive Plans, Management Science, vol. 26 no. 11 (November, 1980), pp. 1131-1144, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  121. Winkler, RL; Brooks, DG, Competitive Bidding with Dependent Value Estimates, Operations Research, vol. 28 no. 3-part-i (June, 1980), pp. 603-613, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0030-364X [doi]  [abs]
  122. Murphy, AH; Lichtenstein, S; Fischhoff, B; Winkler, RL, Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon)., Bulletin American Meteorological Society, vol. 61 no. 7 (January, 1980)  [abs]
  123. Murphy, AH; Lichtenstein, S; Fischhoff, B; Winkler, RL, Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon)., undefined (January, 1980)  [abs]
  124. Winkler, RL; Kadane, JB; Dickey, RL; Smith, WS; Peters, SC, Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 75 no. 4 (1980), pp. 845-854, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]  [abs]
  125. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results., undefined (January, 1979)  [abs]
  126. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program., Bulletin American Meteorological Society, vol. 60 no. 1 (January, 1979), pp. 12-19  [abs]
  127. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures., Meteorological Magazine, vol. 108 no. 1288 (January, 1979), pp. 317-329  [abs]
  128. Winkler, RL; Franklin, LA, Warner’s randomized response model: A Bayesian approach, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 74 no. 365 (January, 1979), pp. 207-214, Informa UK Limited [doi]  [abs]
  129. Winkler, RL, Comment, American Statistician, vol. 32 no. 2 (January, 1978), pp. 54-56 [doi]
  130. Eliashberg, J; Winkler, RL, ROLE OF ATTITUDE TOWARD RISK IN STRICTLY COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING SITUATIONS., undefined, vol. 24 no. 12 (January, 1978), pp. 1231-1241, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  131. Winkler, RL, Statisticians Can Matter: Comment, The American statistician, vol. 32 no. 2 (1978), pp. 54-56, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-2731 [doi]
  132. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects, National Weather Digest, vol. 2 no. 2 (1977), pp. 2-9
  133. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), vol. 26 no. 1 (1977), pp. 41-47, Wiley: 12 months, ISSN 1467-9876
  134. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Experimental Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects, Atmosphere, vol. 15 no. 2 (1977), pp. 61-78, MDPI, ISSN 2073-4433 [doi]  [abs]
  135. Matheson, JE; Winkler, RL, SCORING RULES FOR CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS., Management Science, vol. 22 no. 10 (January, 1976), pp. 1087-1096, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) [doi]  [abs]
  136. Jaffe, JF; Winkler, RL, OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET, Journal of Finance, vol. 31 no. 1 (January, 1976), pp. 49-61, WILEY, ISSN 0022-1082 [doi]
  137. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Experimental Results, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 104 no. 1 (January, 1976), pp. 86-95, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0027-0644 [doi]
  138. Barry, CB; Winkler, RL, Nohstationarity and portfolio choice, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 11 no. 2 (January, 1976), pp. 217-235 [doi]
  139. Winkler, RL; Barry, CB, Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 11 no. 2 (1976), pp. 217-235, Cambridge University Press (CUP): HSS Journals, ISSN 1756-6916 [doi]
  140. Marschak, J; Degroot, MH; Borch, K; Chernoff, H; De Groot, M; Dorfman, R; Edwards, W; Ferguson, TS; Miyasawa, K; Randolph, P; Savage, LJ; Schlaifer, R; Winkler, RL, Personal probabilities of probabilities, Theory and Decision, vol. 6 no. 2 (May, 1975), pp. 121-153, Springer Nature, ISSN 0040-5833 [doi]  [abs]
  141. Winkler, RL, Comment, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 70 no. 350 (January, 1975), pp. 290-291, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]
  142. Winkler, RL; Barry, CB, A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION, Journal of Finance, vol. 30 no. 1 (January, 1975), pp. 179-192, WILEY [doi]
  143. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results., undefined (January, 1975)  [abs]
  144. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 55 no. 12 (December, 1974), pp. 1449-1452, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0003-0007 [doi]
  145. Britney, RR; Winkler, RL, Bayesian point estimation and prediction, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 26 no. 1 (December, 1974), pp. 15-34, Springer Nature, ISSN 0020-3157 [doi]  [abs]
  146. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 102 no. 11 (November, 1974), pp. 784-794, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0027-0644 [doi]
  147. Winkler, RL, Information Aggregation in Probabilistic Prediction, IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics, vol. SMC-3 no. 2 (January, 1973), pp. 154-160, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) [doi]  [abs]
  148. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Experiments in the laboratory and the real world, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol. 10 no. 2 (January, 1973), pp. 252-270, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0030-5073 [doi]  [abs]
  149. Winkler, RL, Bayesianism: Its Unifying Role for Both the Foundations and the Applications of Statistics: Comments, Bulleting of the International Statistical Institute, vol. 45 no. 4 (1973), pp. 375-375
  150. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, Subjective Probability Forecasting of Temperature: Some Experimental Results, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, vol. 45 no. 2 (1973), pp. 247-268
  151. Winkler, RL, Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 8 (1973), pp. 387-405, Cambridge University Press (CUP): HSS Journals, ISSN 1756-6916
  152. Winkler, RL; Roodman, GM; Britney, RR, The Determination of Partial Moments, Management Science, vol. 19 no. 3 (November, 1972), pp. 290-296, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  153. Winkler, RL, A decision-theoretic approach to interval estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 67 no. 337 (January, 1972), pp. 187-191, Informa UK Limited [doi]  [abs]
  154. Winkler, RL; Cummings, LL, On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol. 7 no. 1 (January, 1972), pp. 63-76, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0030-5073 [doi]  [abs]
  155. Winkler, RL, On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle, and Some Probability Paradoxes in Choice from Among Random Alternatives: Comment, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 67 no. 2 (1972), pp. 376-378, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]
  156. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 52 no. 4 (April, 1971), pp. 239-248, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0003-0007 [doi]
  157. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 52 no. 3 (March, 1971), pp. 158-166, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0003-0007 [doi]
  158. Winkler, RL, Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 66 no. 4 (1971), pp. 675-685, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]  [abs]
  159. Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL, Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation, Acta Psychologica, vol. 34 no. C (January, 1970), pp. 273-286, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0001-6918 [doi]  [abs]
  160. WINKLER RL; MURPHY AH, NONLINEAR UTILITY AND THE PROBABILITY SCORE, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 9 no. 1 (January, 1970), pp. 143-148  [abs]
  161. Winkler, RL, Intuitive bayesian point estimation, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol. 5 no. 5 (January, 1970), pp. 417-429, Elsevier BV, ISSN 0030-5073 [doi]  [abs]
  162. Winkler, RL, Tables of the nth Order Partial Moments about the Origin for the Standard Normal Distribution, n=1(1)6, Mathematics of Computation, vol. 24 (1970), pp. 995-995, American Mathematical Society, ISSN 1088-6842
  163. Winkler, RL, Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 64 no. 327 (January, 1969), pp. 1073-1078, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]  [abs]
  164. Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH, “Good” Probability Assessors, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 7 no. 5 (October, 1968), pp. 751-758, American Meteorological Society, ISSN 0021-8952 [doi]
  165. Winkler, RL, The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions, Management Science, vol. 15 no. 2 (October, 1968), pp. B-61-B-75, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), ISSN 0025-1909 [doi]  [abs]
  166. Winkler, RL, The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 62 no. 4 (1967), pp. 1105-1120, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]  [abs]
  167. Winkler, RL, The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 62 no. 3 (1967), pp. 776-800, Taylor & Francis: SSH Journals, ISSN 1537-274X [doi]  [abs]
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