Publications [#370304] of Carlos Rojas

Papers Published

1. Rojas, C, Black and White Swans: Pandemics, Prognostications, and Preparedness, in Coronavirus Human Social and Political Implications (January, 2020), pp. 61-68 [doi] .
   (last updated on 2025/07/03)

   Abstract:
   This essay examines why communities around the world have tended to respond relatively poorly and belatedly to the Covid pandemic-despite the fact that the likelihood of this sort of infectious outbreak had been widely recognized by public health experts, and furthermore in early 2020 communities outside of China were, in effect, given an advance warning of the imminent threat of this particular outbreak before the virus began to spread globally. Drawing on Nassim Taleb’s recent discussion of the sociopolitical significance of “black swan events, " this essay argues that the global Covid response is symptomatic of a more general difficulty in thinking probabilistically.