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Publications [#266022] of Dan Ariely

Journal Articles

  1. Ariely, D; Au, WT; Bender, RH; Budescu, DV; Dietz, CB; Gu, H; Wallsten, TS; Zauberman, G, The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges., Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied, vol. 6 no. 2 (June, 2000), pp. 130-147, ISSN 1076-898X [10937317], [doi]
    (last updated on 2020/02/20)

    Abstract:
    The average probability estimate of J > 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of conditionally pairwise independent estimates will be highly diagnostic, and Prediction 2 is that the average of dependent estimates (differing only by independent error terms) may be well calibrated. Prediction 3 contrasts between- and within-subject averaging. Results demonstrate the predictions' robustness by showing the extent to which they hold as the information conditions depart from the ideal and as J increases. Practical consequences are that (a) substantial improvement can be obtained with as few as 2-6 judges and (b) the decision maker can estimate the nature of the expected improvement by considering the information conditions.


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