Publications [#367221] of Xiuyuan Cheng

Papers Published

1. Tan, Y; Zhang, Y; Cheng, X; Zhou, X-H, Statistical inference using GLEaM model with spatial heterogeneity and correlation between regions., Scientific reports, vol. 12 no. 1 (October, 2022), pp. 16630 [doi]
   (last updated on 2024/07/16)

   Abstract:
   A better understanding of various patterns in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in different parts of the world is crucial to its prevention and control. Motivated by the previously developed Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, this paper proposes a new stochastic dynamic model to depict the evolution of COVID-19. The model allows spatial and temporal heterogeneity of transmission parameters and involves transportation between regions. Based on the proposed model, this paper also designs a two-step procedure for parameter inference, which utilizes the correlation between regions through a prior distribution that imposes graph Laplacian regularization on transmission parameters. Experiments on simulated data and real-world data in China and Europe indicate that the proposed model achieves higher accuracy in predicting the newly confirmed cases than baseline models.