Research Interests for Robert L. Winkler

Areas of Interest:

Risk Analysis
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Probability Forecasting
Combining Forecasts
Bayesian Inference

Recent Publications

1. Babic, B; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Normativity, Epistemic Rationality, and Noisy Statistical Evidence, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, vol. 75 no. 1 (March, 2024), pp. 153-176 [doi] [abs]
2. Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Evaluating quantile forecasts in the M5 uncertainty competition, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38 no. 4 (October, 2022), pp. 1531-1545 [doi] [abs]
3. Makridakis, S; Spiliotis, E; Assimakopoulos, V; Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 38 no. 4 (October, 2022), pp. 1365-1385 [doi] [abs]
4. Lichtendahl, KC; Grushka-Cockayne, Y; Jose, VR; Winkler, RL, Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts, Operations Research, vol. 70 no. 5 (September, 2022), pp. 2998-3014 [doi] [abs]
5. Müller, A; Scarsini, M; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL, Technical Note—Ranking Distributions When Only Means and Variances Are Known, Operations Research, vol. 70 no. 5 (September, 2022), pp. 2851-2859 [doi] [abs]